When Kentucky kneeled down to run out the clock on Ole Miss for a stunning 20-17 win in Oxford last September, the result was jarring on a number of fronts.
Ole Miss had won its first 4 games by a combined score of 220-22. To see the No. 6 team in the country turn into a slop-riddled machine caught everyone by surprise. Ole Miss went 1-for-10 on third downs that day, lost a turnover, committed 8 penalties, and was out-possessed 2:1.
“You can’t blink,” quarterback Jaxson Dart said after the game. “We have a lot more opportunities. One game is not going to define the year, but at the same time you better make the most of the rest of your opportunities.”
Dart was right, and he was wrong.
Ole Miss did have more opportunities, but 1 game ended up defining the year.
The Rebels closed the 2024 regular season at 9-3. When it came time for the College Football Playoff selection committee to sort out the madness, Ole Miss was stuck shoulder to shoulder with several teams for 1 final spot.
Ole Miss had a plus-24.2 point differential last season — at least a touchdown better than Alabama, South Carolina, and SMU.
Ole Miss was 1 of only 2 teams in the country that ranked top 5 in yards per play and yards per play allowed. Ohio State was the other. The Rebels outgained the opposition by 2.9 yards per play. Alabama (+1.6), South Carolina (+1.1), and SMU (+1.5) each had top-25 units on one side of the ball, but not both.
Ole Miss ranked seventh in the nation in Game on Paper’s opponent-adjusted net EPA per play metric. Alabama (12th), South Carolina (35th), and SMU (10th) were all lower.
Ole Miss ended the season second in Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings. Alabama was fourth, South Carolina 14th, and SMU 12th.
The Rebels were too wasteful in 2024, squandering the advantages they’d given themselves throughout the season. They followed up a potentially program-altering win over Georgia with an immediate loss to Florida. They dropped an overtime game to LSU after hammering South Carolina on the road.
In the end, Kentucky’s first win in Oxford since 1978 kept the Rebels out of the CFP. What would Ole Miss have done in a first-round Playoff game? We’ll never know, but it’s a question I’m still asking months later.
The metrics say Ole Miss was one of the best teams in college football last season; it has a case to be one of the biggest snubs of the CFP era.
Almost.
There have been some outstanding teams that missed out on the CFP since its inception in 2014, and most of them didn’t have a loss to a 4-8 team on the ledger.
So, we’ve ranked them. Below, you’ll find the 12 best teams from the CFP era that did not make the CFP.
Honorable Mentions: 2017 Penn State, 2020 Cincinnati, 2024 Ole Miss
12. 2017 Central Florida Knights
Record: 13-0 | SP+ rating: 14.1 | Point differential: +22.9 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.27
Say what you will about Scott Frost and the Knights claiming a national championship in 2017, but UCF simply asked for a chance. And when it was denied that opportunity by the selection committee, it proved its case in the Peach Bowl by winning a 34-27 duel with an Auburn team that ranked seventh in the final CFP rankings. UCF beat 3 straight opponents who finished ranked in the final AP Poll to end an unbeaten campaign. That UCF team had a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in McKenzie Milton and led the nation with 48 points per game. They won 8 games by at least 20 points and became the first team in FBS history to go from winless to unbeaten in a regular season within 2 years. Hurricane Irma also forced a cancellation of one of their games in the first month of the season and UCF sat idle from Aug. 31 until Sept. 23. Their first game back? A 38-10 win on the road over a Big Ten squad.
11. 2023 Florida State Seminoles
Record: 13-1 | SP+ rating: 19.4 | Point differential: +15.3 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.22
The 2023 Seminoles are the first of several “what if?” teams you’ll find on this list. A devastating injury to quarterback Jordan Travis prevented the Seminoles from making the CFP. Despite winning on the road against Florida and then winning an ACC Championship with a third-string quarterback to go 13-0, Florida State was denied a spot in the CFP. The injury to Travis and a flimsy “quarterback uncertainty” argument were used as justification to slam the door in the Seminoles’ face. Florida State became the first unbeaten team from a power conference to be excluded from the CFP since its inception. Yes, the Orange Bowl beatdown happened, but Florida State’s team shut it down after being told 13-0 wasn’t worthy of a shot at a title. FSU finished with wins over 3 teams ranked in the final AP Poll — all of them away from home.
10. 2019 Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 12-2 | SP+ rating: 26.8 | Point differential: +18.2 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.21
The 2018 Bulldogs went 11-1 during the regular season to earn a spot in the SEC title game. There, they lost by a touchdown to Alabama. Texas then beat the Dawgs in the Sugar Bowl. The following season, Georgia was a team on a mission. They won 7 games by at least 21 points during the regular season. They beat Notre Dame at home and then hammered Tennessee on the road to move to 5-0 before a stunning loss to South Carolina at home. That Gamecocks team finished 4-8, but Georgia went on to blank Kentucky a week later and then upset Florida. Georgia’s only other loss was to the runaway national champion on a neutral field. The 2019 Dawgs had 4 wins over teams that finished in the top 15 of the AP Poll.
9. 2018 Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 13-1 | SP+ rating: 20.3 | Point differential: +16.9 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.18
Remember Rondale Moore? Ohio State does. The 2018 Buckeyes had 13 wins, a Big Ten championship, and a Heisman finalist at quarterback. They won 4 of their first 6 games by at least 23 points, won a neutral site game against TCU and topped Penn State by 1 on the road. On Oct. 20, 2018, Purdue pulled off one of the great upsets in modern college football history, beating then-No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 in West Lafayette. Moore had 170 receiving yards and 2 scores that day. Despite blasting a ranked Michigan State team, dropping 62 on a top-5 Michigan team, and cruising past Northwestern in the conference title game, Ohio State was left out of the CFP for a 12-1 Oklahoma team. (Alabama had a 28-0 lead on OU in the CFP semis before 17 full minutes had been played.) The Buckeyes had a 28-3 lead on Washington going into the fourth quarter of the Rose Bowl.
8. 2017 Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 13-1 | SP+ rating: 26.8 | Point differential: +19.9 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.29
The 2017 Badgers had a real question mark at quarterback, but they also had a tailback in Jonathan Taylor who ran for 1,977 yards at 6.6 a carry against a Big Ten schedule, and they had a defense that was one of the stingiest in football. One team scored more than 17 points on Wisconsin in the regular season. Only Alabama and Clemson held opponents to fewer yards per play than the Badgers. Their only loss was a 6-point defeat to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
7. 2021 Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 11-2 | SP+ rating: 29.3 | Point differential: +22.9 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.27
CJ Stroud threw for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave formed a terrifying receiver corps and TreVeyon Henderson gave the Buckeyes balance on the ground. Ohio State led the nation with nearly 46 points a game. The losses came against Oregon in Week 2 and Michigan on the road to end the regular season. That loss to the Wolverines knocked the Buckeyes out of the CFP picture, so they settled for a Rose Bowl game against Utah and gave us one of the greatest Rose Bowls we’ve ever seen.
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6. 2022 Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 11-2 | SP+ rating: 28.0 | Point differential: +23.3 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.23
A storm of randomness engulfed the 2022 Tennessee team. At No. 5 in the country, the Vols went on the road to face a 6-4 South Carolina team. Spencer Rattler then had the day of his life, throwing for 438 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the Vols saw their own quarterback go down with an injury that would end his season. Tennessee lost 63-38 to the Gamecocks to officially end their Playoff push, but I often wonder what this team could have done with a healthy Hendon Hooker. Tennessee averaged 46.1 points per game that season, pacing the FBS along the way. Hooker had 3,135 yards and 27 touchdowns against just 2 picks in 11 games before being knocked out of the lineup. Pre-injury, Hooker was the biggest threat to Caleb Williams in the Heisman race. Tennessee ended the season with 4 wins over teams ranked in the final AP Poll, including a rousing October victory over Alabama.
5. 2023 Oregon Ducks
Record: 12-2 | SP+ rating: 26.2 | Point differential: +27.7 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.38
The 2023 version of the Oregon Ducks were better than the 2024 version. And that might not even be a controversial take, which is remarkable considering the 2024 squad went 13-0 to win the Big Ten. In 2023, Oregon lost twice, both times to Washington and both times by 3 points. The Huskies had receivers the Ducks couldn’t cover. No one else touched Oregon all year. Led by Bo Nix, Oregon scored 81 points in its first game, overcame Texas Tech on the road in Week 2 to win by 8, then went on to win 7 of their next 10 games by at least 20. The final Pac-12 Championship Game amounted to a play-in game for the CFP. Oregon was getting in with a win.
4. 2015 Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 12-1 | SP+ rating: 29.5 | Point differential: +20.6 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.21
A 3-point loss to Michigan State in the penultimate week of the regular season was all that stood between the Buckeyes and the CFP. The Spartans kicked a field goal as time expired to end Ohio State’s 23-game winning streak and hand Urban Meyer the first conference loss of his Buckeye tenure. Ohio State pounded Michigan on the road the next week, 42-13, and then beat Notre Dame by 16 in the Fiesta Bowl. The MSU loss makes little sense. Zeke Elliott, who ran for 1,821 yards and 23 touchdowns that season, had just 12 carries in the game. JT Barrett completed 9 of his 16 passes for 46 yards. A week after producing just 132 yards of total offense, Ohio State went for 482 at 7 per play. And that was against an elite defense.
3. 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 11-2 | SP+ rating: 32.4 | Point differential: +28.6 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.38
Alabama opened the 2019 season ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll. In roaring to a 7-0 start, the Tide moved up to No. 1. On Nov. 9, 2019, Alabama played a “1 vs. 2” regular-season game against LSU. The Tigers took the win, 46-41, in what was an unbelievable quarterback duel. A week later, Alabama lost Tua Tagovailoa to a hip injury. Mac Jones stepped in for Tagovailoa, but 2 interceptions in Jordan-Hare Stadium contributed to a 48-45 loss to Auburn to close the regular season. At 10-2, Alabama missed the CFP for the first time ever and took its frustrations out on Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Alabama might not have won a national championship, but it was an incredibly elite team when healthy.
2. 2022 Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 11-2 | SP+ rating: 33.3 | Point differential: +22.9 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.22
A 52-49 road loss to Tennessee and a 1-point road loss to LSU kept Alabama out of the CFP in 2022. Michigan and Ohio State both got in, as did a TCU team that had just lost in its conference title game. “We would have been 13-point favorites over TCU if we would have played them and they got in the playoffs and we didn’t,” Nick Saban told Pat McAfee of the snub. TCU beat Michigan in the semis, but its 65-7 loss to Georgia in the national title game was unsightly. Alabama had a top-10 scoring offense and a top-10 scoring defense. The Tide ranked eighth in offensive efficiency and they ranked fourth in defensive efficiency. Led by Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr., this was one of the best teams in all of college football.
1. 2023 Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 13-1 | SP+ rating: 31.2 | Point differential: +24.5 | Adj. net EPA/play: +0.27
The title of “best that never was” belongs to the 2023 Georgia Bulldogs. The gap between this Georgia team and everyone else, to be perfectly honest, is pretty significant. Georgia’s quest for a 3-peat was thwarted in the SEC title game by a 3-point loss to Alabama. That was the only defeat Georgia suffered all season. The Dawgs won 7 games by at least 28 points. They had 3 wins over teams that finished in the top 10 of the AP Poll and had a fourth ranked win over Tennessee on the road by 28. Georgia was top-5 in scoring offense, top-5 in scoring defense, top-5 in offensive efficiency, and 11th in defensive efficiency. This was the year that killed the 4-team CFP. Seven power conference teams had 1 or fewer losses when the CFP selection committee handed down its final rankings. In an expanded field, Georgia might have been the favorite.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
