A colleague posed an interesting question over the weekend: Is there a scenario in which Alabama junior Ty Simpson and Notre Dame freshman CJ Carr are the best quarterbacks in college football?
At first, the thought felt like a major overreaction to the opening salvo of the season. But the more I thought about it, the more reasonable it seemed. Remove all the priors that bake bias into the equation and just focus on the play we’ve seen through 5 weeks. It’s hard to argue that Simpson and Carr aren’t at least top-5 performers thus far.
In the preseason, we went for the names and the vets. Most every preseason quarterback ranking you could find had some amalgamation of the same top 6 names — Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina), Drew Allar (Penn State), Arch Manning (Texas), and DJ Lagway (Florida).
Five weeks into the season, none of those players belong anywhere close to a “Top 10 quarterbacks in the country” ranking. Are they the biggest names, still? Absolutely. Have they been the best quarterbacks on the field? Not close. By Total QBR, those 6 distinguished passers rank 94th, 31st, 55th, 88th, 71st, and 92nd among qualified FBS quarterbacks, respectively. Only one of them (Nussmeier, 27th) is top-50 in total EPA.
So, who are the 10 best quarterbacks right now?
Here’s what I’ve come up with.
IR: John Mateer, Oklahoma
Oklahoma superstar John Mateer would be on the list if not for a broken hand suffered in the Week 4 win over Auburn that threatens to sideline him for an extended period of time. Through his first 4 appearances for the Sooners, Mateer threw for 1,215 yards, ran for 190 yards, and scored 11 total touchdowns. The Sooners have no run game to speak of and yet Mateer, who faced preseason questions about how his game would scale against better competition, led OU to a 4-0 record anyway.
10. Beau Pribula, Mizzou
Allar isn’t on this list. I suppose that’s a spoiler, though it shouldn’t really come as a surprise. It certainly looks like Penn State made a mistake letting Beau Pribula walk this past offseason. After 3 years on the bench for the Nittany Lions, Pribula bet on himself and joined a Mizzou program that would let him compete for a starting job. He got a touch of fortune (for lack of a better word) in the quarterback competition when Sam Horn suffered an injury that took him out of the fight, but Pribula made it clear, regardless, that he was the guy with his debut in Week 1. Pribula ranks 10th nationally in total EPA. He’s 11th nationally in passing success rate, per Game on Paper. The time he has spent seasoning on the bench seems to have served him well; he looked calm and composed from the opening kickoff. Pribula has an adjusted completion percentage of 80.4% — a top-10 mark among QBs with at least 100 drop-backs this season. In a Week 2 rivalry victory over Kansas, Pribula completed 30 of his 39 passes for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mizzou has a guy capable of leading a College Football Playoff charge.
9. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
A fifth-year senior who began his career at Mississippi State, Robertson flew a bit under the radar entering the season. He made strides as a full-time starter for Baylor last season and has taken another step this year. Robertson leads the nation in passing (1,713 yards) and touchdowns (17). He is working on a career-best 69% adjusted completion rate. He has been nails when blitzed and 51% of his completions this season have gone for at least 10 yards.
8. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
The former Cal quarterback has an average depth of target of 9.7 yards and he has an adjusted completion rate of 79.3%. He’s top-20 in passing grade, per PFF, and top-15 in Total QBR. Mendoza is also eighth nationally in EPA per drop-back, according to Game on Paper. From Sept. 12-20, Mendoza completed 40 of his 43 pass attempts for 537 yards and 10 touchdowns without an interception as Indiana beat Indiana State and Illinois a combined 136-10. Mendoza threw his first interception of the season at Iowa in Week 5, ending a streak of 182 consecutive pass attempts without an interception that dated back to last season.
7. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Taylen Green had a bad day last Saturday. When Arkansas got pelted by Notre Dame, the Razorbacks’ leading passer completed just 17 of his 32 attempts and was picked off. Green missed throws that Arkansas couldn’t afford him to miss. But that bad day shouldn’t erase his first 4 outings of the season. Green has 1,398 passing yards, 441 rushing yards, and 14 total touchdowns. He averages 8.7 yards per play and leads the nation in total offense per game. He has more explosive runs than Ahmad Hardy and he has 24 completions of at least 20 yards — tied for the third most in the country. Despite throwing 5 picks on the season and having a disaster of a day in Week 5, Green is still seventh in Total QBR. He’s also PFF’s sixth-highest graded FBS quarterback. Green is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner if he plays for a contender and not a team that has already fired its head coach.
6. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss won a national championship at the D2 level and finished third in voting for the top D2 player of the year award after throwing for 2,901 yards and 26 touchdowns and rushing for 1,019 and 25 touchdowns. It probably shouldn’t be a surprise that’s a capable quarterback. And, still, Chambliss has taken the sport by storm since replacing Austin Simmons in the starting lineup and has positioned Ole Miss as a significant threat to earn a high seed in the CFP. In his last 3 games (all starts), Chambliss has 974 passing yards, 245 rushing yards, and 6 total touchdowns. He ranks fifth nationally in Total QBR and 15th in EPA per drop-back. Against a top-notch LSU defense in a massive game, Chambliss threw for 314, ran for 71, and led Ole Miss to a 5-point win.
5. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Aside from CJ Carr’s love of intentional grounding penalties, it has been a spectacular start to the season for the redshirt freshman. Carr, who ranks second nationally in Total QBR, could not get the job done on the road in Week 1. He completed 19 of his 30 passes, took 3 sacks, and threw an interception in a 3-point loss to Miami. But even in defeat, signs of something special were there. Two weeks later, when Notre Dame lost to Texas A&M at home, Carr was picked off again and his team lost by 1 point. But he also threw for 293 yards. In consecutive 56-point performances from the Irish (both of them wins), Carr has completed 32 of his 42 pass attempts for 577 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception. He has been really good on deep balls this season and is completing 70% of his intermediate passes. Notre Dame fans feel like they finally have an upper-echelon quarterback.
4. Jayden Maiava, USC
Lincoln Riley has another one. If you haven’t taken note of Jayden Maiava yet, you should. The Trojans might not ultimately make any noise in the College Football Playoff because of their defense, but they are going to be a major problem for everyone in the Big Ten the rest of the way because of the way Maiava is playing. Every major advanced number has him at or near the top of the list. He leads the nation in Total QBR. He leads the nation in total EPA. He leads the nation in EPA per dropback. He is the ninth-highest-graded quarterback in the country, according to PFF. He has the best passing grade in the country when blitzed (min. 50 dropbacks). He has the best passing grade in the country on balls thrown 20 yards or more downfield. He has the most 20-yard completions of any quarterback in the country. He has the second-highest per-pass average of any quarterback in the country. In 5 games, Maiava has completed 70% of his throws for 1,587 yards and 11 touchdowns with 1 interception. The former UNLV quarterback has been exceptional to begin the year.
3. Dante Moore, Oregon
I watched the 2023 version of Dante Moore at UCLA closely. I saw the supremely talented quarterback who probably wasn’t ready but was thrust into action anyway and then jostled back and forth between the bench and the huddle. Moore threw 9 interceptions that season. Several of them were returned for touchdowns that proved consequential in tight defeats. He had a Total QBR of 33.1 that season and, when it was over, hit the transfer portal in search of a place that would develop him. Moore landed at Oregon, where he was initially committed out of high school before flipping to UCLA, and learned the grass was indeed greener in Eugene. He sat behind Dillon Gabriel and threw only 8 passes all year. Would he be ready for the moment? That was the main question we all had. Had he grown? It was fair to ask because we hadn’t seen him in a year, but now those concerns look silly. Moore is a top-5 quarterback in college football. On the road at Penn State last weekend, Moore threw for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns while completing 29 of his 39 passes (74.4%). On throws of at least 10 air yards this season, Moore has 10 big-time throws and only 2 turnover-worthy plays with a 59.6% completion rate. His downfield stuff has been deadly.
2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt legend Diego Pavia is third in Total QBR, third in total EPA, third in EPA per drop-back, and fourth in offensive grade. Vanderbilt is a legitimate threat to knock off Alabama again, even in Tuscaloosa, because Pavia has been on fire to begin the season. The ‘Dores have one of the best third-down offenses in the country, they’re one of the best red-zone offenses in the country, and they’re fourth in per-play offensive efficiency. Pavia is coming off a historic 400-yard, 6-touchdown performance in the win over Utah State. He’s a brawler. He’s a gamer. He’s as tough as any player in the country. If I were taking control of a team for 1 season and tasked with winning a Playoff game, Pavia would be my quarterback.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama
In the Week 1 loss to Florida State, it looked like Ty Simpson knew what he was supposed to be doing and where he was supposed to be with the football; he just didn’t make enough plays. In the 3 games Alabama has played since, Simpson has been the best quarterback in football. Against FSU, Simpson completed 23 of his 43 passes (53.5%) for 254 yards and 2 scores. Against ULM, Wisconsin, and Georgia, Simpson has gone 65-for-84 (77.3%) for 884 yards and 11 total touchdowns. He has taken only 1 sack. He doesn’t have a turnover. His Crimson Tide are 3-0 in those games. Simpson posted a QBR of 90.1 in the road win over Georgia last Saturday. Everything about the game — from his pregame address to the team to how he handled the win afterward — suggests a blossoming quarterback who has taken hold of his team and gained the trust of his teammates. Simpson has been awesome throwing over the middle of the field and, when allowed to sit in the pocket, has picked defenses apart.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
