Five reasons why Vanderbilt may take down Texas A&M on Saturday
By Nick Cole
Published:
Entering the season, it was easy for prognosticators to mark down Texas A&M’s Nov. 2t visit to Nashville as a win for the Aggies.
But now that the game is just a few days away, the Aggies are just a touchdown favorite and there are questions about whether they’ll actually come away with that win that seemed quite certain on paper.
Here are five reasons why Vanderbilt, which has won its past two conference games at home, may be able to pull the upset against the Aggies on Saturday:
1. Vanderbilt’s defense is playing as well as anyone.
While they may not have the wins of an Alabama or Florida, the Commodores stack up favorably with the league’s elite teams on the defensive side of the ball. Vanderbilt showed it can stand toe-to-toe with Florida’s defense in The Swamp and also outlasted Missouri’s talented defense at home. The Vanderbilt defense ranks in the top half of the league in almost every relevant category, and has allowed just 17.7 points per game in the SEC. The Commodores lead the SEC in third-down defense and red zone defense, ranking fourth in the country in each. It’s safe to say that the Aggies could have a long day against this squad.
2. Texas A&M can’t seem to settle on a quarterback.
Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin has declined to name a starter for this week’s game, choosing to instead reveal his quarterback of choice just before the game. While that does lend to some potential tactical advantages for A&M, it really highlights the fact that the Aggies haven’t had a quarterback play consistently enough to own the job this season. Given the Commodores’ strength being on defense, that could spell trouble. Whether it is freshman Kyler Murray, sophomore Kyle Allen or a combination of both, winning this game will require someone running the offense efficiently and effectively.
3. Kyle Shurmur hasn’t been turning the ball over.
The Commodores have been plagued by turnovers all season long, but one of the reasons they’ve been able to win a couple of conference games during the past few weeks has been the emergence of true freshman Kyle Shurmur as a ball-control quarterback. Johnny McCrary, who began the season as the starting quarterback and took the majority of the snaps until the second half of the season, has thrown 12 interceptions compared to just six touchdown passes in 263 attempts. Shurmur, on the other hand, has thrown just one interception in his three starts. The Commodores are 2-1 in those games.
4. Vanderbilt wants to run; the Aggies will struggle to stop it.
The point above is not to say that Kyle Shurmur is ready to beat the Aggies with his arm. He’s a young player still trying to get a full grasp of the offense after arriving on campus just a few months ago. It is no secret that offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has decided to put the offense in the hands of sophomore RB Ralph Webb, who trails only Alabama’s Derrick Henry (240 carries) with 231 rushing attempts on the season. Meanwhile, the Aggies have struggled against the run, allowing a SEC-worst 210.2 yards per game on the ground. If Vanderbilt can sustain long drives with its running game – and keep A&M’s powerful offense off the field – it has a chance to keep the game tight.
5. The Aggies are in ‘unfamiliar territory’ on the road.
The behavior of college kids is tough enough to predict from week to week as it is, so anytime you throw in some new variables the output can becoming wildly unpredictable. First, Texas A&M has never played a game at Vanderbilt Stadium, so that experience will be new. The Aggies also have not traveled as far away from home as Nashville this season, previously leaving the state of Texas just once to play against Ole Miss last month. That trip did not go well, as the Rebels sent the Aggies back to Texas carrying the shame of an embarrassing 23-3 loss. Also worth noting is that Vanderbilt has been a much better team in Tennessee than on the road this season, winning three of its four games at home and the fourth one just a few miles down the road at Middle Tennessee State. An upset is much more likely to happen at Vanderbilt Stadium than it would be at Kyle Field.
Nick Cole is a former print journalist with several years of experience covering the SEC. Born and raised in SEC country, he has taken in the game-day experience at all 14 stadiums.
