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SEC bowl projections after Week 10: Don’t count out Vanderbilt quite yet

Published: Nov 4, 2025 · 9:00 AM EST

However important you think Vanderbilt at Tennessee will be, you may still be underselling it.

Let’s get something straight right off the bat: Vanderbilt no longer controls its own destiny. Losing to Texas was a big blow, and Oklahoma beating Tennessee means there are realistically 2 SEC teams in front of the Commodores for a ticket to the CFP. Let me point out, though, that 2-loss Texas and Oklahoma both have to play a pair of top 20 opponents before the season is over — and 3 of those 4 combined matchups come against top-10 opponents.

Vanderbilt, meanwhile, plays just one current AP top 25 team: Tennessee.

The Vols are average at best and in real danger of finishing 7-5 on the season. The Commodores present a terrible matchup for Tennessee, too. Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt’s talented offensive line can walk all over this Volunteers defense if the Commodores don’t get in their own way.

Of course, I didn’t forget that Vandy still has to face Auburn and Kentucky. One doesn’t have its head coach anymore and the other is Kentucky, though, so I like the Commodores’ odds.

That’s a perfect segue into the abject disaster that is Auburn football. The Tigers fell to Kentucky on Saturday and subsequently fired head coach Hugh Freeze following a terribly disappointing 3 years on the Plains. Auburn would need to upset one of Alabama or Vanderbilt this Saturday to reach 6 wins. The Tigers are still listed in the projections thanks to their APR score, which is higher than any other SEC team in a similar situation. In other words, there’s a decent chance Auburn plays in a bowl at 5-7.

The CFP field didn’t change much from last week’s projections, but the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame are making things very interesting as we enter the home stretch. The Fighting Irish, per usual, still appear ready to sneak their way into the Playoff so long as they win out.

One final note: Pay close attention to the Oregon Ducks across the next few weeks.

Oregon has kind of flown under the radar since beating Penn State and losing to Indiana. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but Oregon’s resume really isn’t all that great and the Ducks still have to face matchups at Iowa and at Washington, plus a date with Jayden Maiava and USC’s top-tier offense in Eugene here in a couple weeks. An Oregon loss absolutely opens the door for teams like Virginia, Louisville, Vanderbilt, the Big 12 title game loser and, just maybe, 9-3 Texas or Oklahoma.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. 7/10 winner

Sugar Bowl: Indiana vs. 6/11 winner

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. 5/12 winner