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SEC bowl projections after Week 11: Does anyone want to go bowling?

Published: Nov 11, 2025 · 9:00 AM EST

Nobody seems to want to go bowling in the SEC these days.

Kentucky boat-raced Florida on Saturday. Mississippi State saw a strong start wither away in the 2nd half against Georgia. Auburn, poor Auburn, fumbled a golden opportunity gifted by Vanderbilt, unable to drive the field for a score after holding firm on 4th down late.

Apart from LSU, which sits at 5-3 and plays Western Kentucky in a few weeks, the Kentucky Wildcats appear to have the best chance to play in a bowl game among SEC teams that haven’t already achieved 6 wins. That said, every team that fits the criteria outlined in the above sentence will have to beat at least one top 25 team to reach 6 wins. Think it over and let us know if you still care across the next few weeks, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida and Mississippi State.

Then there’s Auburn. As outlined last week, there is technically a path for the Tigers through APR rankings, or by beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl. But let’s say Auburn does go 5-7 — would the Tigers even accept a bowl bid given the coaching search and — *gestures broadly* — the current state of bowl season? At this point, I lean no.

Here’s another question for the field, in a similar tone: Does any ACC program actually want to go to the College Football Playoff?

What a disaster the ACC has been this season. After Miami and Georgia Tech’s losses to unranked opponents in Week 10, Virginia and Louisville were the latest ACC programs to turn down a golden opportunity in Week 11. All of a sudden, Pitt and SMU are right back in the thick of things with 5 ACC programs sitting at 5-1. Week 13’s matchup between Pitt and Georgia Tech could go a long way in deciding the No. 11 spot in the Playoff field.

There are a lot of moving parts here, but the other pressing questions I still have are as follows:

Who will win the G5 bid?
Will the Big 12 put 2 teams into the Playoff?

For the G5, I see 3 likely candidates remaining: South Florida, North Texas and, with slightly less confidence, James Madison. A few others have outside chances.

If the winner of the AAC has just 1 loss, I don’t see a way James Madison has a shot — and I especially like South Florida among the current 1-loss AAC programs. The Bulls boast good nonconference wins over Boise State and Florida and beat North Texas by nearly 4 scores earlier this season. South Florida and its mighty offense face Navy, another contender for the G5 spot, this Saturday.

Finally, there’s the Big 12, which also ties into our old friend Vanderbilt. With Virginia and Louisville out of the way, the state of Utah is now enemy No. 1 for the Commodores.

Vanderbilt probably jumps the Utes if it wins out, but I don’t know that the Commodores jump the Big 12 loser if it’s 10-2 BYU or 10-2 Texas Tech. A lot of it may depend on where BYU and Vanderbilt are slotted in the Week 12 CFP rankings Tuesday evening. To feel best about the situation, Vanderbilt fans should be rooting for Cincinnati and TCU against the Cougars and for Texas Tech to win the Big 12.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. 7/10 winner

Sugar Bowl: Indiana vs. 6/11 winner

Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. 5/12 winner