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SEC bowl projections after Week 12: Are we doing this again, Alabama?

Published: Nov 18, 2025 · 9:00 AM EST

It’s estimated there are over 1 million words in the English language. If I were asked to pick just one to describe the Kalen DeBoer era at Alabama thus far, I’d have to go with “inconsistent.”

The Crimson Tide put on a clinic in “fumbling the bag” on Saturday. Literally. Oklahoma forced 3 Alabama turnovers, including 2 fumbles and a pick 6 that set the tone in the early stages. Alabama won the time of possession, the first-down battle, totaled more offensive yards and committed fewer penalties than Oklahoma, which scored just 1 offensive touchdown all evening. Inconsistency kept the Crimson Tide out of the Playoff last year, and now Alabama is in very real danger of missing the College Football Playoff once again with the Iron Bowl looming.

With all that said, let’s give Oklahoma its well-earned flowers.

Even with John Mateer struggling, and even with Alabama winning just about every major offensive statistical category, Oklahoma’s defense and special teams unit got it done. The Sooners have now won 2 consecutive games decided by 1 possession where their defense scored a touchdown. That may not be sustainable, but it proves that this Sooners defense is playing at an elite level with 2 weeks to play in the regular season. The Sooners were the biggest winner of the Week 12 slate, and it’s not particularly close.

But where there are winners, there are losers. The biggest loser of the weekend from the SEC was not Alabama — it was Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt and Oklahoma still have the same amount of losses, but the Sooners’ résumé is far superior. What’s especially crucial: Oklahoma beat Alabama, whereas Vanderbilt did not. The SEC might put 5 teams into the Playoff, but it definitely won’t put 6, which means if Oklahoma and Alabama each finish 10-2, Vanderbilt will be the odd man out. And that’s not even mentioning the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game — especially if it’s Texas Tech.

Obviously, Oklahoma’s win and more results from around the country shook up the bowl projections quite a bit. Georgia took Alabama’s spot in the top 4, pushing the Tide down to 9th and Vanderbilt to the ReliaQuest Bowl, with the massive Texas Longhorns brand filling the Citrus Bowl. North Texas takes over the G5 Playoff spot after South Florida lost to Navy — though it’s still anyone’s race between North Texas, Navy, Tulane and James Madison out of the Sun Belt.

A few SEC teams are still in the hunt for a bowl appearance: Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn. As stated last week, each would have to beat at least 1 top 25 team to reach 6 wins, so for now they won’t appear in the projections.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M vs. 7/10 winner

Orange Bowl: Indiana vs. 6/11 winner

Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. 5/12 winner