SEC bowl projections after Week 14: Do the right thing, selection committee

Ole Miss needs to host a College Football Playoff game in a few weeks, and this really shouldn’t even be a discussion.

A lot of fans are comparing Ole Miss’s Lane Kiffin situation to 2023 Florida State, insisting the Rebels should be dropped from a host spot or even dropped out of the Playoff altogether. I vehemently disagree with the notion that Rebels players should be punished because their head coach bolted for a new job.

Back in 2023, the Seminoles lost starting quarterback Jordan Travis to injury and showed a pullback in efficiency at the position. It’s very important to remember that this happened in the 4-team Playoff era. That Florida State squad — even with Tate Rodemaker at the helm of the offense — would have hosted a Playoff game under the 12-team format we’ll see this season.

And keep in mind, the 2023 committee made their decision to keep Florida State out of the 4-team field after a few weeks of monitoring how the Seminoles fared without Travis. Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, Wydett Williams, Suntarine Perkins and every other player who helped the Rebels achieve an 11-1 season, and they haven’t yet been seen in a game without Kiffin on the sidelines. It would be asinine of the committee to make a proactive judgement here.

Rant over. Let’s change gears.

BYU is the team in the Playoff hunt that’s hardest to pin down. If I had a vote, BYU and Alabama would both jump Notre Dame for reaching their respective conference championship games. Both teams claim better wins than the Irish, and BYU has a “better loss.” Miami, having beaten Notre Dame earlier this season and Pitt in Week 14, should jump the Irish, too. The logic tracks here, but would the Committee really drop Notre Dame 3 spots despite winning in Week 14? How much emphasis will they put on the eye test?

Better question: Can these guys join a conference already?

Obviously, the above means that Texas and Vanderbilt just don’t have any hope here. There are simply too many mouths to feed and not enough spots at the table. Since the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt and boast the bigger brand (yes, it absolutely matters), I have Texas in the Citrus Bowl facing Michigan. Vanderbilt gets the 2nd best non-Playoff bid in the SEC lineup, facing off against Iowa in the ReliaQuest Bowl. The only other bowl-eligible teams in the SEC this season are Tennessee, Mizzou and LSU.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

• The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 are simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
• This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. 7/10 winner

Orange Bowl: Indiana vs. 6/11 winner

Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

College Station, Texas: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 North Texas

Eugene, Oregon: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Virginia

Oxford, Mississippi: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 BYU

Norman, Oklahoma: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Texas vs. Michigan

ReliaQuest Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Iowa

Gator Bowl: Tennessee vs. Miami

Mayo Bowl: Mizzou vs. Clemson

Music City Bowl: LSU vs. Illinois

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.