Home > News > College Football > SEC bowl projections after Week 4: What to do with Oklahoma, LSU and Texas?

SEC bowl projections after Week 4: What to do with Oklahoma, LSU and Texas?

Published: Sep 23, 2025 · 12:00 PM EDT

Oklahoma is the most intriguing team in the SEC.

The Sooners boast what has been one of the league’s 3 best defenses and current Heisman frontrunner John Mateer leads an above average offense. Oklahoma commits fewer penalties than every other team in the SEC not named Georgia. Finally, the Sooners are 4-0, ranked in the top 10 and already have 2 top 25 wins on their resume. They can afford to lose twice and still like their chances for a postseason bid.

On the other side of the coin, Oklahoma possesses the worst turnover margin in the SEC and faces 5 ranked teams to end the regular season. Because of this, you can make winning arguments for and against Oklahoma making the Playoff. My take? The Sooners are in, just barely.

Right now, our latest projections have 3 other SEC teams joining the Sooners: Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Five more — LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mizzou and Vanderbilt — appear to have viable chances at winning 10 games this season.

Oklahoma plays 5 of these teams. LSU, if you re-insert Oklahoma, plays 5 as well.

So… why do I have the Tigers in the Citrus Bowl and not the College Football Playoff? Simple! LSU has trouble moving the football and has yet to beat a Power 4 team with a winning record. LSU’s wins over Clemson and Florida mean absolutely nothing to most of America right now after how they’ve performed since Weeks 1 and 3, respectively. Maybe the Tigers will prove themselves later in the season, but for now they just haven’t.

At least I see the vision with LSU. I have no idea what some folks still see in Texas.

Arch Manning has been flat-out bad to start the year. The Longhorns still have to play Texas A&M, at Georgia and neutral vs. Oklahoma — and they can’t afford to lose more than 1 of those games. Vanderbilt won’t be a walk in the park, either.

Let’s shift gears.

Through 4 weeks of the regular season, 5 SEC teams appear to be in danger of not making it to 6 wins: Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and Mississippi State, in order from most to least concerning. Arkansas just could not afford that loss to Memphis. Florida couldn’t afford the loss to South Florida with that late schedule. Kentucky is Kentucky.

South Carolina will probably need to find at least 1 win in games against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M — none of which they’ll be favored in. And finally, Mississippi State needs 2 wins with Florida and Arkansas on the schedule.

Alright, let’s quit yapping and get into the projections. Until next week, college football.

College Football Playoff

We’ll leave this here for anyone not familiar with the current CFP format for 2025-26:

The top 5 conference champions will be awarded auto-bids, as they were last year. However, unlike last year, the top 4 of those 5 conference champions will not be guaranteed a first-round bye. Seeds 1-4 will simply be determined by their CFP ranking at the end of the season.
This year’s quarterfinal matchups feature the Rose, Sugar, Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl as semifinal hosts. As with last season, first-round matchups (Seeds 5-12) will be hosted by the higher-ranked team on campus.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. 7/10 winner

Cotton Bowl: Oregon vs. 6/11 winner

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. 5/12 winner