How to bet SEC football: Checking in on the 2016 season bets
By Kevin Duffey
Published:
Back in August, I outlined my thoughts on various SEC over/under win total bets as well as a selection of prop bets. You can read the article here.
As we enter the final month of the season, let’s check in on the over/under and prop bets we made, and pat ourselves on the back for the winners (and kick ourselves for the losers).
Ok, here we go ….
Ole Miss Under 9.5 Wins (-250)
The Play: Bet under 9.5 if you can find odds better than -200.
After missing the boat on the early odds, I didn’t get any action on this line. Hopefully you did because this was easy money. Ole Miss is playing through one of the most disappointing seasons in the conference with respect to preseason expectations (Tennessee fans have a good claim for this as well).
Status: Ka-ching!
Arkansas Under 7 Wins (+175)
The Play: Bet under 7 wins at +175.
As I mentioned back in August, this was a bold one. The +175 odds persuaded me to take a shot.
After Arkansas beat TCU, this bet looked like a disaster, but interestingly, it’s still in play. If Arkansas (5-3) beats Florida at home this Saturday, Arkansas is likely going to win either seven or eight games. A loss to Florida puts this more in the six or seven wins range meaning at worst, I’m pushing on this bet.
Status: Wait-and-see. The Florida game is huge this weekend.
LSU Under 10.5 Wins (-140)
The Play: Bet under 10.5 wins at -140.
We won this bet before we even exited September, and oh yeah, Les Miles lost his job back then too. Sorry, Les!
The payout isn’t great, but we thought this was a lock.
Status: We’ll celebrate, but mourn the loss of Miles at the same time.
Texas A&M Over 8 Wins (+150)
The Play: Bet over 8 wins at +150. Consider waiting for better odds in the +170 range.
In addition to the under 7 wins for Arkansas, this was our boldest bet, and likely our best one. Before the season, nobody was talking about Texas A&M being a contender, and now look at those beautiful little Aggies! Sitting fourth in the initial playoff rankings?
Kevin Sumlin’s boys are sitting at 7-1 with the following schedule remaining: at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, UTSA, LSU. As Sumlin likes to say on Twitter … YESSIR!!!
Status: I’ve already spent my winnings
Georgia Under 9.5 Wins (-160)
The Play: Bet under 9.5 wins at -160.
Is this another winner? I think it is! We’re on a roll, no?
Georgia’s a mess, and they might even lose to Kentucky this week. We’re already in the green on this bet, so why not just let the Cats get to a bowl game, Kirby?
Status: Winner
Tennessee Over 10 Wins (+135) / Under 10 Wins (-165)
The Play: Stay away.
If you bet that Tennessee would win 11 games, you’re a Tennessee fan. Admittedly, I was high on the Vols entering the season, but I saw this as a sucker bet. I told you to stay away!
Status: Staying away was the right move (or betting the under)
Florida Over 8 Wins (-115)
The Play: Bet over 8 wins at -115.
Simply put, I liked Florida’s schedule going into the season, and I thought people were too down on the Gators because of how bad Treon Harris looked to conclude 2015.
Florida’s offense isn’t that great, but the defense is still elite.
Sitting at 6-1, Florida’s remaining schedule is: at Arkansas, South Carolina, at LSU, at Florida State. Or, in other words, the Gators need to win at Arkansas this week.
Status: Not looking great
Chad Kelly Over 3,700.5 Passing Yards (-120)
The Play: Bet Over 3,700.5 Passing Yards for Chad Kelly at -120.
My main man, Chad Kelly, is on pace to do it. He’s averaging 316.5 yards per game which extrapolated out to 12 games would put him at 3,798.
Or, another way to look at it is he needs 1,169 yards to pass the 3,700.5 mark. He needs to average 292.25 per game through his last four games. Ole Miss at Georgia Southern, at Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. I like my chances here.
Status: Lookin’ good, Swag Kelly
Joshua Dobbs Under 18.5 Touchdown Passes (-120)
The Play: Bet Under 18.5 TD passes for Joshua Dobbs at -120.
This bet was a disaster a few weeks ago as Joshua Dobbs threw for 13 touchdowns in the first five games of the season. He’s only thrown for two touchdowns over his past three games, so he’s sitting at 15 touchdowns through 8 games.
Barring an injury, Dobbs likely hits the 19 passing touchdown mark.
Status: Likely loser
Christian Kirk Over 850.5 Receiving Yards (-140)
The Play: Bet Over 850.5 Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk at -140.
My man Kirk is sitting at 446 receiving yards through 8 games. In other words, this isn’t good. Interestingly, this was one of the prop bets I was most confident I’d win.
He could explode and put up some nutty numbers in the next few games, but barring a miracle, this one looks like a loser as well.
Status: Crap
My action
Let’s recap, shall we?
- Arkansas Under 7 Wins (+175) — Wait and see
- LSU Under 10.5 Wins (-140) — Winner
- Texas A&M Over 8 Wins (+150) — Likely Winner
- Georgia Under 9.5 Wins (-160) — Winner
- Florida Over 8 Wins (-115) — Wait and see
- Chad Kelly Over 3700.5 Passing Yards (-120) — Looking good
- Joshua Dobbs Under 18.5 Touchdown Passes (-120) — Not looking good
- Christian Kirk Over 850.5 Receiving Yards (-140) — Not looking good
Overall, I have four bets that are already winners or expected winners and two that are likely losers. And I have two over/under win total bets that are wait-and-see. Interestingly, if Florida beats Arkansas, it could move both of the wait-and-sees into the likely winner category. Sorry Arkansas fans, it looks like I’m rooting for the Gators on Saturday!
I didn’t bet the Ole Miss under as I recommended, but if you did, that’s another winner to add to the list.
Hey, if you’d like to bet on any of the games this weekend, consider joining over at BetDSI. Use code SOUTH10 to get a free $10 wager.
A graduate of the University of Florida and founder of Saturday Down South, Kevin is a college football enthusiast.
