SEC football predictions: College Football Playoff odds for SEC teams in 2025

It’s almost time for the 2025 college football season.

One positive consequence of the 12-team College Football Playoff format is dozens of teams across the country have legitimate CFP aspirations entering the season. Most will surely see those hopes dashed in the coming weeks and months, but for now, it’s worth taking a look at the latest odds from a variety of the best sports betting apps available.

College Football Playoff odds for SEC programs in 2025

This piece will include analysis on almost every SEC team’s CFP props. I — and most sportsbooks — have chosen to exclude Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State from this exercise for reasons that are obvious but would be rude to state plainly. 

Alabama

Best price to make the Playoff: -180 (bet365)

Best price to miss the Playoff: +155 (DraftKings)

I wrote about Alabama’s Playoff path earlier this offseason and ultimately recommended taking the Crimson Tide to do so. The price at the time, on FanDuel, was -154. That has moved rather significantly since mid-June. That’s a jump in implied odds from a little over 60% to 64%. 

For all the reasons I wrote about earlier this summer, I still like Alabama’s Playoff path. The schedule is manageable, the defense should be elite and I think the offense takes a big step forward with Ryan Grubb stepping in as Kalen DeBoer’s OC. Ultimately, I’m sticking with my pick of Alabama to make the Playoff while acknowledging it’s now a much worse price than it was 2 months ago. 

Pick: Alabama to make the Playoff

Auburn

Best price to make the Playoff: +400 (DraftKings)

Best price to miss the Playoff: -500 (FanDuel)

The vibes out of Auburn this offseason haven’t been great. Hugh Freeze has been grilled for his golf game, Auburn’s recruiting at a G5-level in 2026, the Tigers’ defense is going easy on Jackson Arnold in practice and the offense will use up to 3 different play callers in a given series depending on the down. 

I still wonder if Auburn is undervalued in the marketplace. The underlying numbers point to Auburn being incredibly unlucky last season. It went 2-6 in SEC play despite being 3rd in offensive yards per play and 4th in defensive yards per play. Auburn was also just -1 in turnover differential in those 8 games. That should be almost impossible to pull off with a 2-6 conference record, but Auburn managed it.

Auburn had a few key weaknesses that proved to be its downfall. Defensively, the Tigers gave up way too many explosive passing plays. Offensively, they were terrible in key situations — 41st percentile in late-down success rate. The offensive line was also brutal, particularly in the run game. 

The second half of Auburn’s schedule this year is pretty friendly, aside from the Iron Bowl. The Tigers might go 5-1 down the stretch if Hugh Freeze still has the locker room by that point. The schedule is tough enough that 9-3 probably gets Auburn in — or at least puts it squarely in the conversation. If you assume losses against Alabama and Georgia, Auburn would need to go 3-1 in games against Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Mizzou while taking care of business in all other contests. Even at +400, I don’t think that’s a play I can endorse. I think the odds of Auburn’s schedule playing out that way are well under 20%. I’d rather be on the “no” side of this one. 

Pick: Auburn to miss the Playoff

Florida

Best price to make the Playoff: +400 on DraftKings

Best price to miss the Playoff: -470 on FanDuel

Florida has very similar Playoff odds to Auburn, albeit slightly more-favorable on the “no” side. Most predictive models have Florida above the Tigers entering the year, but Florida’s schedule is much tougher. The Gators face Miami and Florida State in nonconference play and also have bouts with Texas, LSU and Georgia plus road games in Oxford and College Station. It’s a true gauntlet. 

If healthy, Florida’s roster is arguably as good as anyone’s in the country. DJ Lagway’s small sample size last year netted some very enticing peripherals and UF’s defense improved dramatically. But Lagway has too many injury questions for me to bet on the Gators to make the Playoff. He’s not the only one, either, as numerous Florida players on both sides of the ball have been banged up during fall camp. 

Given the schedule difficulty and pervasive injury bug, I just don’t think the margin-for-error is big enough here to back the Gators to make the Playoff — even with their immensely-talented quarterback.  

Pick: Florida to miss the Playoff

Georgia

Best price to make the Playoff: -260 on DraftKings

Best price to miss the Playoff: +220 on BetMGM

Georgia has a tough schedule, a below-average offensive coordinator, an inexperienced quarterback and must replace 7 defenders who were drafted (including 3 first-rounders) off of last year’s team. 

Yeah, UGA recruits well enough at the high school level to reload on defense year after year. And I’m buying the idea that the offense will be better this season, mostly due to its spending spree on transfer receivers Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas. 

There are 5 really tough games on this schedule: Florida, Auburn and Tennessee away from home plus Alabama and Texas will make the trip to Athens. Georgia probably needs to go 3-2 in those games to make the Playoff, but 2-3 might be enough if it runs the table outside of that cluster. Despite the concerns I outlined above, I do think 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome and that should be enough to comfortably secure a bid. 

Pick: Georgia to make the Playoff 

LSU

Best price to make the Playoff: +115 on Caesars

Best price to miss the Playoff: -130 on BetMGM

Like Alabama, I also wrote about LSU’s Playoff chances extensively earlier this offseason. In that piece, I picked LSU to reach the CFP at +130 odds. The price has moved fairly significantly (implied odds of about 43.5% to 46.5%), albeit not as drastically as the Alabama price change. 

However, I’m sticking with that pick here despite the line movement. I think LSU to make the Playoff should be a coin flip, so +115 still seems like a sensible bet. The schedule is tough, but quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and defensive coordinator Blake Baker should deliver some improvement during the second year of their respective roles. 

Pick: LSU to make the Playoff

Mizzou

Best price to make the Playoff: +800 on DraftKings

Best price to miss the Playoff: -1200 on BetMGM

I want to take a minute and give Eli Drinkwitz some credit. He’s won 10 games in back-to-back seasons at Mizzou. This is a program that didn’t win 9 games a single time between 1970 and 2006. Gary Pinkel had a great run (and ultimately snapped that drought in 2007) but it’s incredibly impressive that Drinkwitz is having this level of success at Mizzou during this era of college football in particular.

To be more specific about something I’m impressed with — Mizzou lost defensive coordinator Blake Baker to LSU after the 2023 season. Drinkwitz replaced Baker with someone outside of the Mizzou tree (Corey Batoon from South Alabama) and the defense actually improved in EPA-per-play allowed. That’s a very strong sign that what Drinkwitz has going on in Columbia is both repeatable and sustainable. 

Now to this year’s team. I have no idea if Beau Pribula is good and I doubt you do, either. Same goes for Sam Horn, should he win the job outright. But I do think the rest of this offense is pretty good and the defense should be loaded after Mizzou went on a real spending spree in the portal this offseason. Mizzou quietly hauled in a top-10 portal class this offseason, per the 247Sports composite rankings. 

Will that lead to a Playoff berth? Maybe not. But the schedule is soft, the roster is at least pretty good and the infrastructure that Drinkwitz has built is clearly sufficient. At 8-to-1, that’s more than enough value for me to pay to find out. 

Pick: Mizzou to make the Playoff 

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Oklahoma

Best price to make the Playoff: +550 on DraftKings

Best price to miss the Playoff: -700 on FanDuel

It’s been interesting to watch Oklahoma become one of the sleepers of the SEC this offseason. Everyone from Chris Doering to Phil Steele to Josh Pate has been touting the Sooners as sneaky CFP contenders. 

I can’t get there. The defense will likely be awesome — and I think it’s a blessing-in-disguise that OU whiffed on bringing in Jim Knowles this offseason. Not that Knowles isn’t a good DC, but what’s the point of having a $3 million defensive coordinator when Brent Venables is your head coach? Venables is set to resume defensive play-calling this year, which I think will be a positive thing for the Sooners.

My concerns are with the offense. Yes, OU will be much better with John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle than it was with Jackson Arnold and Seth Littrell. But this is a unit that ranked 124th in yards per play last season and didn’t make many notable transfer additions on the offensive line. The receiver room should be healthier (it couldn’t be more injured than it was in 2024) but OU’s big transfer additions at WR this offseason come from Arkansas Pine-Bluff and McNeese. How much progress can OU really make? 

OU should go 3-0 in its non-power conference games, so then you’d need 6 wins against this group: Michigan, Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU. Keep in mind contests vs. the Longhorns, Gamecocks, Vols and Crimson Tide are all away from home. This line of +550 is asking you to believe there’s better than a 15.4% chance that OU gets 6 wins from that group. I think the real probability is much lower. 

Pick: Oklahoma to miss the Playoff

Ole Miss

Best price to make the Playoff: +210 on BetMGM

Best price to miss the Playoff: -230 on DraftKings

I’ll keep this relatively short — I’m out on Ole Miss this year. I think the Rebels lost way too much irreplaceable defensive talent to the NFL Draft last year. Ole Miss came away with a highly-rated portal class once again, but time will tell if that means as much in 2025 as it did over the previous couple of cycles. 

It’s true that all top programs will feel the effects of a weaker transfer portal, but perhaps none more so than Ole Miss given its lack of focus on high school recruiting over the past few cycles. Texas and Georgia lost a lot of talent to the NFL this offseason, too, but those programs have spent the requisite resources building up through the high school recruiting trail in the 2023 and 2024 high school classes. I don’t think Ole Miss can say the same. And so when I see Ole Miss ranking 93rd in returning production per ESPN, alarm bells in my head start going off. 

Pick: Ole Miss to miss the Playoff

South Carolina

Best price to make the playoff: +540 on FanDuel

Best price to miss the playoff: -600 on BetMGM

There are some interesting market dynamics at play here with some popular retail sportsbooks having very different lines on South Carolina’s CFP prop. That spells opportunity for bettors who are looking for value. 

Personally, I’m on the “no” side of this one. The Gamecocks lost a ton of NFL talent on defense and I don’t think they recruit at a high enough level to assume they will once again be elite on that end of the field. And for as much hype as LaNorris Sellers has earned this offseason, it’s gone under-the-radar that South Carolina lost offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains to Appalachian State. Shane Beamer chose to replace him with Mike Shula, who hasn’t called plays at any level since he was the New York Giants’ OC in 2019. I think there’s a chance South Carolina’s offense takes a small step back this year even if Sellers is the real deal. 

Pick: South Carolina to miss the Playoff

Tennessee

Best price to make the Playoff: +310 on DraftKings

Best price to miss the Playoff: -375 on BetMGM

Tennessee should have an excellent defense again, maybe as good as the Vols have had under Josh Heupel. But I have some major reservations on offense, and they’re not all about Joey Aguilar replacing Nico Iamaleava (although that could end up being a pretty significant downgrade). 

My concerns are more with Heupel as a play caller. He has the reputation of being strong in that regard, but the Vols have put up putrid explosive play numbers in the 2 years since Alex Golesh left for South Florida. Maybe Heupel finds it again this year, but I suspect he may be a better head coach and leader than he is at calling plays at this stage.

Tennessee will also be heavily reliant on some young receivers (Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley). A true freshman is likely to start at right tackle. And Tennessee as a schedule that includes Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Oklahoma. The rest of the schedule is relatively weak, so the Vols might need to go 10-2 to make the CFP. I’d bet against it, although -375 is a pretty steep price. 

Pick: Tennessee to miss the Playoff

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Texas

Best price to make the Playoff: -300 on bet365

Best price to miss the Playoff: +240 on DraftKings

At 9-3, Texas would still be a strong bet to make the Playoff — albeit not a lock. The Longhorns should cruise to an undefeated home record (Texas A&M is the only tough opponent on paper), but games away from home against Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma and Georgia could be tricky. 

But at the end of the day, I think this is the best defense in the SEC entering the season given what the Longhorns return from a star standpoint (Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr. and Michael Taaffe). Arch Manning may be unproven, but he’s also clearly talented and has a great support system to help him through any low points. Wide receiver is probably the biggest question Texas has, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep the Longhorns out of the Playoff. 

Pick: Texas to make the Playoff

Texas A&M

Best price to make the Playoff: +240 at Caesars

Best price to miss the Playoff: -290 at DraftKings

Any time you give me an opportunity to back Mike Elko, that’s what I’m going to do. We’re talking about a coach who won 9 games at Duke in Year 1 and then managed to get the Blue Devils to a bowl game despite not having Riley Leonard for half the year. Elko’s process and program-building is as good as anyone’s. 

I’m also relatively in on Marcel Reed, who posted close to an FBS-average dead-end throw rate last season despite being mostly a running quarterback. The pieces around Reed in A&M’s offense got better this offseason, too. 

However, the schedule is really tough. Texas A&M plays road games in South Bend, Baton Rouge and Austin. Plus home games vs. Auburn, Florida and South Carolina. That’s too many potential top-10 teams on the road and too many toss-ups at home for me. I think A&M will be a top-25 caliber team but I can’t recommend a bet on the Aggies to make the CFP this year. Maybe in 2026. 

Pick: Texas A&M to miss the Playoff