For today’s SEC Parlay of the Week, I’m going to do things a little bit different than I normally do around here. Typically, what this column looks like is a brief intro, about 2 or 3 paragraphs on each of my 4 to 5 picks, and then the total odds for the parlay at the end. That number is often in the +800 to +1500 ballpark, which sets us up for a tremendous payday if/when it hits.
The problem here has been that far too often it’s been more of a “if” than “when” as it relates to these bets. Admittedly, my attempts at cashing in on parlays with such a sizable payday hasn’t yielded the results I’ve hoped for, but at the same time, I shouldn’t be all that surprised. When you’re making weekly picks that hover in the 10/1 range and rely on numerous teams winning bets, it’s not exactly a shocker if you’re on the losing end more often than not.
That’s why this week, I’m tailoring my approach to get us a 4-team moneyline parlay that gives us +162 odds, completely reasonable to the point that I fully expect to cash in, both here on the internet and in real life, where I’ve locked this parlay in on my preferred betting app.
The only caveat here is I’m totally fine with it if I lose this bet, because if I lose this bet, it will mean that my favorite thing about college football actually happened on Saturday.
Everyone is a fan of an upset, but in college football especially, I am a huge proponent of chaos. In fact, I would even go as far to make the case that in every single college football season of the last 2 decades, the game that sticks out the most in my mind, or the one that comes to mind first when I think about that season, is an upset.
Whether it be Texas over USC in the 2005 BCS National Championship Game, Boise State over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl the following year, or Appalachian State upsetting Michigan in the Big House during the opening weekend of the 2007 season, these are the games that rise above the rest. Watching Nevada upset Boise State on Black Friday 2010 stands out in my mind just as clearly as Johnny Football becoming a college football folk hero at the expense of the Alabama Crimson Tide does. Hell, even last year, the first game that comes to mind is Michigan’s stunner over Ohio State in the final week of the regular season.
What I wonder is, will this be the week that a game of this ilk plays out and takes a place forever in my brain? Well, if it doesn’t, then it means we’re all making some money on Saturday, friends! So let’s dive right in to the parlay, and then, let’s hit 3 important questions related to these 4 games.
As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:
SEC Week 12 Parlay of the Week
- Leg 1: Texas A&M money line (-1200) over South Carolina
- Leg 2: Alabama money line (-225) over Oklahoma
- Leg 3: Ole Miss money line (-500) over Florida
- Leg 4: Georgia money line (-250) over Texas
- Total: +162
Question 1: What team is most likely to screw this parlay over?
To me, the answer feels like it’s pretty clearly the Georgia Bulldogs, who are hosting the preseason No. 1 ranked team, the Texas Longhorns. Full disclosure, if this game were being played in Austin, I’d probably pick the Longhorns, or at the very least, stay away from this game entirely. But this top 10 matchup will be contested between the hedges, so I’m taking Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs to deliver a similar result as we saw in the SEC Championship Game last December.
Question 2: Assuming either Alabama or Georgia loses to Oklahoma or Texas, respectively, what does that do to the College Football Playoff picture?
Well, it certainly shakes it all up, doesn’t it? I don’t think it knocks either Alabama or Georgia out of the race entirely, as the Tide and the Bulldogs each have just one loss respectively. But it does make their path to the Playoff all the more difficult. Alabama would need to avoid a slip up in the Iron Bowl, and Georgia would have to survive against Georgia Tech in their season finale to stay in the mix, no easy feat based on what we saw last season.
As for what a win would do for either Texas or Oklahoma, it would no doubt strengthen their case to make the CFP, though it doesn’t necessarily guarantee either team ends up in the field. Texas has a date with unbeaten Texas A&M on Black Friday, and Oklahoma still needs to pass home tests against Mizzou and LSU to close out the season.
Presently, the Longhorns are the last at-large team in the College Football Playoff field and the Sooners are the last team out. So you better believe that programs such as Oregon, Notre Dame, BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt and a handful of others are hoping that chalk prevails this Saturday.
Question 3: Will this be the last time Lane Kiffin coaches against the Florida Gators before he becomes the next head coach of those Gators?
Just one week ago, I wrote the following:
My gut is telling me that Kiffin ends up heading to Gainesville. Florida will be ready to shell out some serious cash, and it’s possible that Kiffin has squeezed all of the potential he possibly could out of Ole Miss.
I stand by what I said, so yes, I do believe this will be the last time Lane Kiffin coaches against Florida before becoming the new head coach of the Gators.
