Welcome to another edition of the SEC Parlay of the Week here at Saturday Down South, where I, Sonny Giuliano, made history last week becoming the only SEC-centric betting column on the internet to go an imperfect 0-for-5 making picks for Week 3 action.
For the last 6 days, I’ve pondered how to handle this unprecedented failure. Should I pull a 2009 Lane Kiffin and just depart Saturday Down South like Kiffin did after only 1 season at Tennessee? Should I do what Connor Stalions did when he was confronted with being on the sideline at Michigan State-Central Michigan game, and just say “I do not recall” writing the aforementioned column? Or should I take note of what Mike Norvell did at Florida State following a horrendous 2024 season, and rebuild this things from the ground up, starting with a dominant victory over the SEC?
After much deliberation, I’ve decided to go the Norvell route. I choose to embrace this almost impossible blunder, not only recognizing it here today but also in my Week 3 SEC Awards column, and confront the SEC head on this week. That’s right, I’ve got a 4-line anti-SEC parlay this week, and I’m hell-bent on getting back on track.
As always, all odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
Leg 1: Northern Illinois +21.5 (-115) vs. Mississippi State
There are 4 things make me wary about thinking Mississippi State will win by 22 or more points this week:
I. Northern Illinois was a 28.5-point underdog at Notre Dame last September, and managed to go into South Bend and win outright against a team that would go on to play in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Yes, this Huskies squad is much different than last year’s, as NIU was ravaged by the portal, but the coach and most of the staff is the same. That has to count for something.
II. The Huskies will come into the game with 15 days of rest, which means they’ll theoretically be fresh and well-prepared for what they’re walking into in Starkville. Now you could say, Well, Mississippi State beat the brakes off of Alcorn State last week, so they’re practically coming in with 2 weeks of rest too, and while that’s theoretically true, it’s also not literally true. Theoretically all 5 of my picks last week were excellent. But literally, they were all losers. See how that works?
III. Northern Illinois already covered the spread once this year against a Power 4 opponent on the road, losing by only 11 points at Maryland on September 5. Additionally, per BetIQ, the MAC is 18-16-1 against the spread this year in nonconference games, a sign that this mid-major is a little better than “mid” against the spread, at the very least.
IV. I know that Mississippi State is 3-0 and already has a win over a ranked opponent on its home turf, but are we sure that the Bulldogs, a team that was projected to finish dead last in the conference in the SEC preseason poll, should be favored by more than 3 touchdowns against a team with this sort of recent history playing the role of David vs. a Goliath?
Leg 2: Tulane +12.5 (-110) vs. Ole Miss
I’ve had action on an Ole Miss game in some form or fashion each week this season, and it just so happens that I’ve also been riding the Green Wave — pun absolutely intended — all year too, so this is a game that’s right in my wheelhouse. On the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Tulane is playing with a heavy heart and a city behind them, and it’s very possible that win or lose against Ole Miss, this will end up being the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff come December. And yes, I do believe that Tulane will not only cover against Ole Miss, but perhaps even score an outright win over the Rebels.
Leg 3: Miami FL -7.5 (-110) vs. Florida
I’m gonna be totally honest with you… I’m absolutely flummoxed by this line. I suppose the rationale behind it would be that Florida hung tough against LSU last week and as a result, there’s an expectation that they could do the same versus the Hurricanes, but I just don’t see it. I think Miami’s offense is a heck of a lot more explosive than LSU’s, and even if the defense isn’t quite as good, have DJ Lagway and Co. showed us anything to be excited about with the exception of their glorified scrimmage vs. Long Island in the opening weekend of the season?
Now I’m not going to pretend that I’ve been on Miami all year long. I thought Notre Dame would go down to South Beach and score a win over the Hurricanes in Week 1, and I expected South Florida to cover against the Canes last weekend. I was dead wrong both times, and each time, I’ve come away more and more impressed by the Hurricanes. With Clemson seemingly taking a step back, it’s looking like the opportunity for Mario Cristobal and the Canes to break through, win the ACC and go to the College Football Playoff is right there in front of them on a silver platter.
Leg 4: Sam Houston +39.5 (-105) vs. Texas
The Texas Longhorns‘ performance against the spread thus far this season is giving off Sonny Picks SEC Games vibes, and as we’ve established, that’s not a place you want to be. Texas is 0-3 against the spread this year, and until Arch Manning, Steve Sarkisian and this Longhorns offense is able to prove they can string together 4 solid quarters in a row, I’m dubious about backing them when they’re laying this many points to any FBS opponent. I mean seriously, Texas hasn’t scored more than 37 points in a single game this year, and now I’m supposed to feel good betting them to win by at least 40 points? Something about that doesn’t sit right with me.
For that reason, I’ll take Sam Houston to make the 155-mile trip from Huntsville to Austin and keep this game within a 5-touchdown affair. And if they don’t, then oh well. I’ve already hit rock bottom with this column, and if the Bearkats lose by 40 plus on Saturday, then I should be right there in that hole with them.
