Maybe down in SEC country this isn’t the case, but up here in Cleveland, Ohio, there’s a fall chill in the air this weekend that lends itself quite well to staying indoors and watching football all day long. In fact, I’d go as far as saying that despite a slate that doesn’t offer a tremendous number of intriguing matchups — save for Indiana at Oregon, which for the record, I do not have a feel for — I may be just as excited about this weekend’s action both in college football and the NFL as I have been any weekend this year.
Strangely enough, even with mixed success so far this season, I look at the this week’s schedule and feel very comfortable with some of the games on tap. In non-SEC action, I like Texas Tech (-14) over Kansas, Iowa State (-2.5) on the road at Colorado, and Illinois (+14.5) to keep things close against Ohio State. But as far as things go in the SEC, well, let’s get to it!
As usual, all betting lines are provided by BetMGM.
Leg 1: Alabama -3 (-115) over Missouri
In my Week 6 SEC Awards column, I promised I’d have a pick prepared for this matchup, and although I don’t necessarily feel fantastic about it, I’m going to be a man of my word. I looked long and hard at Missouri, and until late Thursday night, I was actually planning on locking in Mizzou +3 as my selection. But then I realized something… I want Missouri to win, and not because I have anything against Alabama. I want Missouri to win because, as I pointed out in that aforementioned Week 6 Awards column, I wrote a section about the totally bonkers 2007 college football season, which is unequivocally on my Mount Rushmore of favorite college football seasons of the last quarter-century, along with 2005, 2010 and 2024.
(For the record, I agonized over deciding on my Mount Rushmore for far too long, and I feel compelled to note that 2008, 2013 and 2019 all received serious consideration for that final spot over 2024.)
Anyway, I think I want this season to resemble 2007, and if it were going to go that route, then Missouri would upset Bama, Indiana would top Oregon in Eugene, and Illinois would beat Ohio State this weekend. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening.
Respect to SEC Offensive Player of the Year front runner Ahmad Hardy and transfer QB Beau Pribula, who has been fantastic this season, I just think Alabama is the better team, and unlike last year, there may not be a let-down game on the road following an emotional win the previous week.
Leg 2: Under 46.5 points (-110) in Florida at Texas A&M
While I must acknowledge that the Aggies did score one high-profile win this season in a shootout — 41-40 over Notre Dame in South Bend — each of A&M’s 2 home games vs. SEC opponents this season have been slugfests that went under their pregame total. I know Florida found some semblance of an offensive groove last weekend in its upset win over the Texas Longhorns, but I think the 12th Man stifles some of that.
The Gators defense is good enough to keep things close, which is why I actually may lean Florida +7.5 as opposed to Texas A&M to cover, but I feel better about the under in this one. Give me the Aggies to win 23-17 and keep their unbeaten season alive.
Leg 3: Tennessee -12.5 (-110) over Arkansas
I’m blatantly ignoring the fact that the Razorbacks are coming into this matchup a new (yet also old) head coach. Sam Pittman’s out after going 32-34 in a 5-and-a-half season tenure, and Bobby Petrino, who was fired by the University of Arkansas in controversial fashion back in 2012, takes over for Pittman after being hired as the team’s offensive coordinator last year.
The Razorbacks may end up getting a new coach bump in this matchup and I could end up looking like a fool for acknowledging it here, but I’m looking past it for a bit in order to lock in the Tennessee Volunteers -12.5. I’m willing to take the risk. I know fans in Fayetteville could claim that the Razorbacks should be 3-2, or maybe even in 4-1, but I just haven’t been all that impressed, and I continue to think Tennessee is just a really good football team that should probably be 5-0.
Leg 4: Georgia moneyline (-180) over Auburn
Yes this game will be played at Jordan-Hare, yes the Tigers had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, and yes, Auburn has managed to keep things close on the road against both Oklahoma and Texas A&M this year. But I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled why this line is only 3.5 points.
We’ve got a top 10 ranked Georgia squad that hasn’t lost to an unranked SEC opponent since pre-COVID. Meanwhile, the Tigers have lost 9-straight games vs. top 10 SEC opponents when they themselves are unranked. The thought of losing this game by half a point scares me, so to mitigate that risk, I’m content with taking Georgia to win outright and extend each of those streaks.
Total: +989
