Hello friends, and welcome to our penultimate regular season Parlay of the Week column here at Saturday Down South!
With at least half of the SEC either on a bye or playing an overmatched tomato can this weekend, I’ve decided to include 3 non-SEC games in our parlay this week — one from each of the other Power 4 conferences — because to be completely honest with you, I have no idea what the heck to do with a line like Georgia -43.5 against Charlotte, or Alabama -50.5 versus Eastern Illinois, and matchups like those are so one-sided that you can’t even get a money line on the game.
And you know what, since we’re fast approaching Thanksgiving and the Christmas season, shouldn’t we be grateful for the consequential matchups we have elsewhere on the college football slate this weekend?
Before we get to the picks though, I want to start with one of my absolute favorite thought experiments… the Blind Résumé Game! Below I’ve compiled the statistical resumes of 2 different quarterbacks, and as you read through today’s parlay and ponder whether you want to take my advice and lock in these 4 upcoming picks ahead of kickoff, I also ask that you keep these 2 résumés in mind and ponder which of the 2 you find favorable.
Player A: 72% completion, 251.0 passing yards per game, 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, 159.2 passing efficiency rating, 89.7 rushing yards per game, 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game
Player B: 67% completion, 206.8 passing yards per game, 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, 164.2 passing efficiency rating, 65.0 rushing yards per game, 1.0 rushing touchdown per game
As always, all odds are via BetMGM Sportsbook:
Leg 1: Oklahoma money line (-275) over Missouri
I will admit, I am moderately concerned about the letdown game potential for the Sooners this weekend against Mizzou after pulling off a parlay-killing stunner at Alabama last Saturday. The Tigers won’t just roll over, and we know that Ahmad Hardy has the ability to take over a game, as he did last week, rushing for 300 yards in a win over Mississippi State. I’d advise staying away from the -7 line on this one, but I feel comfortable enough backing Oklahoma at home each of these next 2 weeks to get the Sooners into the College Football Playoff field.
Leg 2: Cincinnati money line (+115) over BYU
Two weeks ago I backed BYU on the road (+10.5) against Texas Tech, and within 6 minutes of that game I knew I didn’t stand a chance. The Red Raiders were clearly the superior team, with the superior NIL payroll and the superior mustachioed star in Heisman hopeful Jacob Rodriguez. Even with that wound still relatively fresh and raw, when I went to put together my picks for this week, I initially penciled BYU in as my choice. But then I asked myself why I would back the Cougars once again when it’s entirely possible that Brendan Sorsby and Cincinnati’s high-octane offense could end up putting me in a similar predicament just as quickly this weekend?
BYU just can’t quite score enough to make me feel comfortable taking the Cougars on the road against a team that can put a lot of points on the board.
Leg 3: Oregon money line (-375) over USC
The most consequential game of the weekend takes place up in Eugene, in a Big Ten battle that has College Football Playoff implications. If Oregon wins, all it needs to do is avoid a slip-up at Washington in the final week of the regular season and the Ducks will be quacking their way to the College Football Playoff even without playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Hell, there’s a shot they could even host a game in the opening round. USC may need a little help, but if the Trojans upset the Ducks at Autzen on Saturday afternoon, they would be a home win against UCLA away from finishing the season 10-2 and having, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, a 75% chance of making the 12-team CFP field.
There’s one big problem for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans. Oregon hasn’t lost 2 home games in a single season since 2016, when Mark Helfrich was still the head coach of the Ducks. At that point, Dan Lanning was a linebackers coach at Memphis, Lincoln Riley was the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, and both of these teams were still in the Pac-12.
Leg 4: Georgia Tech money line (-135) over Pittsburgh
Let’s revisit our Blind Résumé Game from up top:
Player A: 72% completion, 251.0 passing yards per game, 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, 159.2 passing efficiency rating, 89.7 rushing yards per game, 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game
Player B: 67% completion, 206.8 passing yards per game, 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, 164.2 passing efficiency rating, 65.0 rushing yards per game, 1.0 rushing touchdown per game
Player A is Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King this year, and Player B is Tim Tebow during his senior year at Florida, when he finished 5th in the Heisman Trophy vote.
I say all of this because if Georgia Tech wins this week and upsets Georgia next week, it would not only be wrong, but absolutely criminal if Haynes King isn’t in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Total: +415
