The 2025 college football season is almost here.
With the season right around the corner, ESPN’s Bill Connelly used his SP+ metric to create an SEC preview that was released late last week. This story will take some of Connelly’s predictions, compare them to the betting market, and try to extract value for anyone looking to place some offseason wagers.
Note: All references to “expected value” in this story are derived from comparing the difference between Connelly’s projections and actual odds from the best sports betting apps on the market.
SEC football predictions: Best bets for 2025
With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the highest expected value propositions available according to SP+.
Oklahoma to win the SEC (+3300 on FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 2.94%
- SP+ odds: 5.4%
- Expected value: $83.60 on a $100 bet
Oklahoma does not have high expectations in betting markets after picking up just 2 SEC wins during its maiden voyage in the league last fall. However, the sentiment around Norman has changed in some circles with the arrival of quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.
That duo is tasked with fixing a unit that ranked near the bottom of FBS in yards per play last season. Defensively, Oklahoma should be excellent — if not elite — again with Brent Venables running the show. The schedule looks tricky on paper, but if Oklahoma can upset Texas and then pick up a couple of road wins against programs like South Carolina and Alabama, it’s not impossible. At the very least, SP+ suggests the Sooners to win the SEC is worth a sprinkle.
Tennessee to win the SEC (+2500 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 3.85%
- SP+ odds: 6%
- Expected value: $56 on a $100 bet
The case for Tennessee is pretty simple. The Vols are going to have an elite defense in 2025 — perhaps as good as they’ve had in the Josh Heupel era to this point. Offensively, there are big concerns. But maybe Joey Aguilar regains his 2023 form or Jake Merklinger balls out. Completely plausible. I’m not too concerned about the drop-off from Dylan Sampson to DeSean Bishop, and there is some talent in the wide receiver room (albeit unproven).
The schedule makes it difficult, but it’s a long shot for a reason. They could conceivably split with Georgia and Alabama while taking care of business in the other 6 games and make it to Atlanta. With Tennessee’s SEC Championship odds at +2500 or better, SP+ sees significant value on the Vols.
South Carolina to win the SEC (+2500 on DraftKings)
- Implied odds: 3.85%
- SP+ odds: 5.4%
- Expected value: $40.40 on a $100 bet
If you’re backing South Carolina to win the SEC, you might as well take LaNorris Sellers to win the Heisman Trophy while you’re at it. If South Carolina even sniffs Atlanta, you can bet your bottom dollar it will be because Sellers took a big leap as a passer and made it to New York City as a Heisman finalist — if not winner. For what it’s worth, Sellers is priced at around +1800 according to the most recent Heisman odds.
As of this writing, South Carolina is still uncertain about the status of running back transfer Rahsul Faison. It’s also unclear how the Gamecocks will replace all the talent they lost on defense to the NFL after last season. But Sellers and edge rusher Dylan Stewart might just be 2 of the 10 best players in the SEC, so maybe Shane Beamer has enough star power to take the Gamecocks where no South Carolina team has gone before.
Missouri to win 6+ games (-400 on bet365)
- Implied odds: 80%
- SP+ odds: 93.10%
- Expected value: $16.38 on a $100 bet
SP+ is very high on this Mizzou team relative to the betting markets (more on that later). Eli Drinkwitz and his staff reloaded after the 2024 season, adding a top-10 transfer class that was headlined by former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula. Much rests on the right shoulder of Pribula, who mostly only used his legs during his time at Happy Valley. Whether or not he can prove to be a strong passer will say a lot about Mizzou’s upside in 2025.
But this pick is more about Missouri’s floor than its ceiling. Six wins has been the baseline for Drinkwitz since he got to Columbia. Mizzou has won at least 6 regular season games in all 4 non-COVID seasons under Drinkwitz. With a stellar transfer class, coaching staff continuity, and a manageable schedule, there’s a lot of reason to believe Mizzou will be bowling again in 2025.
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Honorable mentions
SP+ really likes Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi State’s SEC Championship odds relative to the betting market. I didn’t include them above because of their remote probability (I only considered picks that SP+ projects to have greater than a 5% chance of hitting), but SP+ was quite high on the expected value for all 3 of those wagers.
SP+ doesn’t see much value in SEC win totals this year with one notable exception: Mizzou. The Tigers have a win total of 6.5, per the latest odds at FanDuel. But SP+ says Mizzou is projected for 7.7 wins this season. That’s by far the biggest discrepancy between SP+ projections and consensus win totals markets in the SEC this year.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
