SEC Primer, Week 3: Is Georgia or Tennessee for real? We’re about to find out
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Everything you need to know about the Week 3 SEC slate, all in one place. The point spreads, as of Friday morning, Sept. 12, provided by ESPNBet. (Matt Hinton’s ATS picks are denoted by •.)
Game of the Week: Georgia (-5.5) at Tennessee
The stakes: Is “rebuilding” still a thing? The transfer portal might have rendered the concept largely obsolete, at least of the level of outfits that aspire to be year-in, year-out Playoff contenders. But Georgia and Tennessee are embarking on the SEC schedule as teams with more questions than answers coming off early CFP exits in 2024. Who are these guys?
Georgia has not had to ask that question at this point on the calendar in quite a while. The ’24 campaign was … well, even at Georgia, you can’t fairly describe a season that culminates in an SEC championship as a letdown. Instead, let’s go with … anticlimax. While the Bulldogs ultimately survived the conference slog, it was just that — a slog, with virtually none of the aura or sense of inevitability they’d sustained across the previous 3 seasons. Every conference game was a competitive, 4-quarter affair, as was an 8-overtime cliff-hanger against Georgia Tech. An 18-point thumping as Ole Miss was UGA’s most lopsided loss since the pandemic. The Dawgs lost their first CFP game by double digits, their starting quarterback to the portal and 13 starters to the NFL Draft.
That’s a lot of question marks for a team that still (narrowly) has the best odds to win the SEC championship. Georgia’s first 2 games, over Marshall and Austin Peay, were routine smackdowns that revealed nothing about what to expect against a real opponent in a hostile environment, especially from quarterback Gunner Stockton in his first career road start. Everyone is going to learn a lot more about this version of the Dawgs on Saturday, including the Dawgs themselves.
For Tennessee, beating Georgia remains one of the last obstacles they’ve yet to clear since emerging from the wilderness under Josh Heupel. The Vols have lost 8 straight in the series, all by at least 2 touchdowns. In last year’s game in Athens, they jumped out to a 10-0 lead only to be outscored 31-7 over the final 3 quarters. The blue-chip quarterback who was supposed to take the program to the next level portaled out in the spring in melodramatic fashion, following last year’s leading rusher, receiver, 4 starting o-linemen and a first-round NFL Draft pick edge rusher. The new quarterback, Joey Aguilar, is a 24-year-old journeyman in the biggest game of his life (so far).
Tennessee fans are ready to seize any opportunity to anoint Aguilar a folk hero, declare victory in the “trade” that brought him to Knoxville in the first place, and prove to the entire country (and themselves) that they never needed Nico Iamaleava to live their best life. Is he capable of giving it to them? Let’s find out.
The stat: 14
That’s the number of interceptions Joey Aguilar threw last year at Appalachian State, most in the nation.
The number itself was alarming, but what really stood out was the circumstances behind it: All 14 picks came with App. State trailing. In fact, Aguilar attempted more passes with his team trailing (307) than any other FBS quarterback, accounting for a staggering 78.7% of his total attempts. Even in victory, the Mountaineers trailed by double digits in 3 of their 4 wins; in the other, a back-and-forth game against Georgia State, they rallied for the winning touchdown in the final 2 minutes. Comeback mode was a way of life.
At Tennessee, not so much — at least, not yet. The Volunteers have yet to trail this season, cruising to big first-quarter leads in lopsided wins over Syracuse and East Tennessee State. Not coincidentally, Aguilar has yet to throw an interception, or take a sack, or to feel so much as a hostile hand on him. (Pro Football Focus has charged Tennessee’s o-line with allowing just 1 QB hit on 60 drop-backs.) Aguilar will almost certainly have to overcome some adverse situations to give the Vols a chance on Saturday, but the longer they can keep him in his comfort zone, the better. Comeback mode against Georgia State and comeback mode against Georgia are two very different things.
The big question: How will Tennessee’s corners hold up?
Before the season, I projected cornerback as the Volunteers’ biggest strength. Instead, it might be their biggest red flag. Tennessee’s best player, Jermod McCoy, remains on the shelf as he works his way back from an offseason ACL tear. The other returning starter at corner, Rickey Gibson III, is out indefinitely with an arm injury he suffered in the season opener. In their place, Colorado transfer Colton Hood and true freshman Ty Redmond are in the spotlight opposite a deep but not especially distinguished bunch of Georgia wideouts.
What little the Vols have seen from Hood and Redmond has been encouraging enough. Hood was the SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week in Week 1 after breaking up 3 passes and returning a fumble for a touchdown in the win over Syracuse. Redmond, who ranked near the bottom of the incoming recruiting class, is Tennessee’s highest-graded defender (per PFF) through 2 games. Whether any of that translates against the likes of UGA’s Zachariah Branch is very much TBD.
The key matchup: Georgia OL Earnest Greene III vs. Tennessee Edge Joshua Josephs
One of the themes of Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee last November was the disparity in the respective pass rushes. The Bulldogs hounded Nico Iamaleava, generating pressure on 40% of his drop-backs and sacking him 5 times. By contrast, the Volunteers never laid a hand on Carson Beck, generating just 5 pressures despite the presence of a couple of future pros on the edges in Joseph and James Pearce Jr. (a first-round pick in April). Beck turned in his best game of the year while leading 5 extended scoring drives on UGA’s last 6 possessions.
After being limited to a part-time role over his first 3 years on campus, Joseph is squarely on breakout watch in Year 4, and his capacity for ruining Gunner Stockton’s afternoon will go a long way toward establishing his stock.
Greene, like most Georgia starters, is a prospect too — in fact, at this time last year it was a safer bet than not that he’d be part of the mass exodus for the draft at the end of the ’24 season. It didn’t work out that way: Greene regressed in his second year as a starter, ultimately getting benched following a disastrous outing against Ole Miss. This year, he made the move from left tackle to right, where he started the opener against Marshall before exiting the game with “lower-body stiffness.” At last glance, Greene is listed as probable to play after returning to practice this week. Plenty of eyes will be watching closely how well he fares in his first reps against SEC competition since getting the hook last year in Oxford.
The verdict …
After Saturday, Georgia’s schedule sets up extremely well for another run to Atlanta. The trip to Knoxville is the toughest of only 3 road games — the Bulldogs get Florida and Georgia Tech at neutral sites, leaving only trips to Auburn and Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas all visit Athens, where UGA is still riding a 33-games-and-counting winning streak dating to 2018. For all the uncertainty on the depth chart, the roster ranks No. 1 in 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, where Tennessee ranks a distant 16th. The Vols need Aguilar, a former JUCO product with no FBS offers out of high school, to play the game of his life to overcome that gap. The Bulldogs just need Gunner Stockton to be himself.
Prediction: • Georgia 26, Tennessee 17
Texas A&M at Notre Dame (-6.5)
Texas A&M had a miserable time through the air in last year’s season opener against Notre Dame, a 23-13 decision in College Station that set the tone for the Irish’s run to the CFP final. A&M’s quarterback in that game, Conner Weigman, was a dismal 1-for-6 on attempts of 10+ air yards, completing more downfield passes to Irish defensive backs (2) than to his own receivers. Cue Mike Elko, channeling the spirit of Aggies fans everywhere in his first game as head coach:
That night certainly wasn’t the only reason the once-touted Weigman ended the year on the bench, and subsequently in the portal. But in retrospect, it was the beginning of the end.
It was also one of the reasons that Elko, satisfied with Marcel Reed‘s development as QB1 last November, invested heavily over the offseason in upgrading the surrounding talent at wide receiver. The top 4 wideouts in last year’s rotation all departed — 2 of them with eligibility remaining — making way for transfers Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) in a bid for more juice. So far, so good: Through 2 games against UT-San Antonio and Utah State, Craver and Concepcion have hauled in 22 of 29 combined targets for 381 yards and 6 touchdowns. Craver, a true sophomore with over-the-top speed, already has 5 receptions of 20+ yards, just 2 fewer than A&M’s leader in that category for the entire ’24 season (Noah Thomas, now at Georgia).
Obviously, Notre Dame’s secondary is a dramatic leap in degree of difficulty over UTSA and Utah State. Holdovers Christian Gray and Leonard Moore saw a little bit of everything during last year’s Playoff run and came out of it as the most respected returning cornerback combo in the country. That doesn’t mean they’re not gettable. Miami’s wideouts put Gray and Moore on the grill in the opener, hauling in a combined 12 catches for 114 yards at their expense, per PFF. (Gray was also flagged once for pass interference.) That’s part of the gig at corner: You win some, you lose some. But even on a rough night, they managed to keep the lid on, allowing a long gain of 20 yards and no touchdowns. If Craver, Concepcion, and/or 5-star sophomore Terry Bussey can turn just a couple of wins into points, the investment will already be worth it.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, • Texas A&M 19
Florida at LSU (-7.5)
It’s September 2024. Florida is coming off an embarrassing home loss to an unranked opponent. The pitchforks are out. The natives are restless. The vultures are circling. Billy Napier‘s tenure is cooked. Pundits are surveying a brutal remaining schedule to determine the exact point of no return. The Internet hive mind is Photoshopping Lane Kiffin in Gators gear in an effort to meme the dream into reality.
It’s September 2025. Florida is coming off an embarrassing home loss to an unranked opponent. The pitchforks are out. The natives are restless. The vultures are circling. The overreactions are pouring in. Billy Napier’s tenure is cooked. Pundits are surveying a brutal remaining schedule to determine the exact point of no return. The Internet hive mind is Photoshopping Lane Kiffin in Gator gear in an effort to meme the dream into reality.
No wonder that the prevailing emotion following last week’s 18-16 loss to USF — a grim parade of untimely penalties, crucial drops, special teams bloopers, dubious clock management and outright stupidity –– was disgust. It’s also no wonder that, looking at the rest of the schedule, the mood quickly turned to resignation. Beginning with the trip to rival LSU, Florida’s next 3 games are all against opponents currently ranked in the top 10 (LSU, Miami, Texas), the first 2 of them on the road. That stretch is followed by a trip to Texas A&M, the annual neutral-site date against Georgia, and a closing run against Ole Miss (in Oxford), Tennessee, and a resurgent Florida State. That’s 8 ranked opponents in the last 10 games that, if kickoff were this weekend, would almost certainly be favored over the Gators. And that’s assuming a couple of perfunctory wins over Mississippi State (in Gainesville) and Kentucky (in Lexington), which as the locals know are hardly automatic.
At this point, it’s hard to tell if pointing that Napier has survived this exact scenario before sounds more like a consolation or a threat. At least after last year’s dismal start, there was a lull in the schedule ahead of the dreaded November gauntlet, not to mention a quarterback controversy to distract from the doomed vibes. This team has the luxury of neither. DJ Lagway is not a freshman anymore. The bright future he promised last year is now the present. A month from now, the Gators could very easily be staring down the barrel of a 1-5 start. If it comes to that, there won’t be much left to argue.
Prediction: LSU 27, • Florida 22
Wisconsin at Alabama (-20.5)
What happened to Wisconsin? Time was, the Badgers knew exactly who they were and you did, too. Used to be, they were gonna get off the bus with a bunch of corn-fed hosses who gained 60 pounds over the offseason like bears preparing to hibernate for winter, an honest-to-god fullback who was wider than he was tall, line up and run the ball till the cows came home. The blueprint never changed, and it was good for somewhere between 8 and 11 wins a year for 30 years.
Under third-year coach Luke Fickell, they’re a thoroughly nondescript group coming off the first losing season at Wisconsin since 2001. Worse, the old smashmouth identity has been replaced by a big bowl of meh. An attempt to bring the offense into the 21st Century was a bust, collapsing last year in a 5-game losing streak to end the season in which the Badgers failed to record a rushing touchdown in the entire month of November. They endured most of the 2024 season without starting QB Tyler Van Dyke, who suffered a torn ACL in a lopsided September loss to Alabama; this year, starting QB Billy Edwards Jr. is nursing a knee injury that will sideline him on Saturday for the second consecutive week. Even the offensive line is the most massive o-line in this game. Bama has problems of its own, but the Tide’s 13-game home winning streak should not be in jeopardy.
Prediction: • Alabama 36, Wisconsin 13
Arkansas at Ole Miss (-7.5)
Last year’s 63-31 final in Fayetteville was Ole Miss’ largest margin of victory over Arkansas in the history of the series – a beatdown so bad Arkansas coach Sam Pittman openly speculated that Ole Miss was reading the Hogs’ mail. What does that mean for this year’s collision in Oxford? Not much.
For one thing, Arkansas-Ole Miss has been about as evenly matched a rivalry over the years as you’re going to find: Since 2009, they’ve split 8 games apiece by an average score of Razorbacks 32, Rebels 32, with neither side winning more than 2 in a row at any point in that span. For another, both sides of last year’s epic barbecue look entirely different. Of the 22 starters in that game when Ole Miss’ offense was on the field, only 7 return – none of whom are Jaxson Dart or Jordan Watkins, the pass-catch combo that accounted for 5 of the Rebels’ 8 touchdowns. Their replacements, Austin Simmons and Harrison Wallace III, are off to a fine start. But historically, when these teams get together history is no guide.
Prediction: Ole Miss 32, • Arkansas 28
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-4.5)
Both sides here are due for a reality check, one way or the other. For South Carolina, a top-15 team with Playoff ambitions, this should be the most routine win on the conference schedule. For Vandy, a wild card coming off an emphatic, 44-20 rout at Virginia Tech, it’s a test of just how competitive the Commodores can realistically expect to be in SEC play. As it stands, the ‘Dores still project as likely underdogs in every conference game, give or take a late-November tilt against Kentucky that will mean very little by that point if they’re unable to string together a series of upsets in the meantime. Competitive underdogs, yes, as opposed to doormats, but underdogs nonetheless. If there’s more on the table than eking out bowl eligibility, what better moment to seize on a rare gust of momentum than starting 1-0 in the league standings?
Prediction: • South Carolina 29, Vanderbilt 23
UTEP at Texas (-41.5)
Arch Manning isn’t the only 5-star quarterback in this game: UTEP QB Malachi Nelson was only slightly less hyped, coming in as the No. 5 quarterback and No. 11 overall player in the 2023 class, per 247Sports’ composite rating.
Initially, Nelson was touted as the heir apparent to Caleb Williams at USC. Instead, he stunned pretty much everyone by bailing after one season at SC with all four years of eligibility intact. (Recall that this was immediately on the heels of the Trojans’ sustained meltdown over the second half of the ’23 regular season, from which they’ve arguably yet to recover.) In 2024, the portal deposited Nelson, randomly, at Boise State. He spent his lone season in Boise chilling anonymously as QB2 during the Broncos’ run to the Playoff. Last winter, he washed ashore at UTEP, where he’s finally managed to get on the field in the Miners’ first 2 games, with unremarkable results.
Nelson’s slide down the food chain before taking his first meaningful college snap is an extreme case, but for a bunch of guys only just approaching legal drinking age the ’23 QB class is already well-traveled as a group. Seventeen quarterbacks were ranked in that year’s composite top 250 players overall; of that number, only 5 made it to Year 3 with the teams they inked with out of high school, and only 2 of those 5 are starters: Manning and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. Just another reminder (if anybody still needs one) not to count your recruiting stars before they hatch.
Prediction: Texas 45, • UTEP 9
South Alabama at Auburn (-24.5)
Their respective campuses are only about 3 hours apart, but Saturday will mark the first meeting. Excluding the Crimson Tide, Auburn rarely scheduled in-state opponents until relatively recently and has never lost to one. Of course, until relatively recently South Alabama football didn’t exist. Since joining the FBS ranks in 2013, the Jaguars are 1-7 against SEC opponents, the lone win coming in a 21-20 upset at Mississippi State in the 2016 opener. The only other time the Jags have appeared on the SEC radar as anything other than target practice was when Bama poached their head coach to serve as defensive coordinator. Woe unto Hugh Freeze if that does not remain the case.
Prediction: • Auburn 44, South Alabama 17
Louisiana at Missouri (-27.5)
Mizzou fans are head over heels for their new quarterback, Penn State transfer Beau Pribula, who lit up the box score in Week 2 in a wild, 42-31 win over rival Kansas. No such luck for Louisiana: The Ragin’ Cajuns’ big-ticket portal addition, former LSU/Ole Miss QB Walker Howard, is on the shelf with an oblique injury that’s likely to end his season. That’s a tough break for Howard, a former blue-chip who returned to his hometown with high expectations and a ticking clock after toiling behind future NFL starters in Baton Rouge and Oxford. His replacement, redshirt freshman Daniel Beale, is making his first career start vs. an FBS opponent.
Prediction: • Missouri 41, Louisiana 7
Oklahoma (-21.5) at Temple
Temple is 2-0 under first-year coach KC Keeler for the first time since 2019, and QB Evan Simon in particular is off to a hot start: First nationally in efficiency, second in both overall PFF grading and Total QBR. The going gets a leeetle bit tougher this week than the Owls have found it so far against UMass and Howard.
Prediction: • Oklahoma 42, Temple 10
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-24.5)
Eastern Michigan’s 28-23 loss to Long Island U. in Week 2 represented LIU’s first ever win over an FBS program, and therefore probably also the worst loss by any FBS team this season. (We’re talking about the same Long Island U. that could barely string together a three-and-out in the opener, a 55-0 blowout at Florida.) It wasn’t even as close as the score: LIU outgained the Eagles by 168 yards with a nearly 16-minute advantage in time of possession. Eastern Michigan as a program has not been nearly as depressing under long-tenured coach Chris Creighton as it was back in the day, but any team that turns in a stinker like that is in the running for worst in America.
Prediction: Kentucky 34, • Eastern Michigan 14
Alcorn State at Mississippi State (n/a)
Alcorn State! Steve McNair! Remember that? Hand Him the Heisman! Alcorn State’s last win over a I-A/FBS opponent was in 1978.
Prediction: Mississippi State 48, Alcorn State 3
Scoreboard
Week 2 record: 12-3 straight-up | 6-6 vs. spread
Season record: 25-6 straight-up | 13-15 vs. spread
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
