SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 6: Alabama gave Ty Simpson time. He gives the Tide hope
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5.
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Looking ahead to Saturday’s grudge match at Alabama, I was thinking about making the case for Pavia as the best quarterback in Vanderbilt history. But then I thought, who else is even in the running?
The competition is not inspiring, statistically or otherwise. Pavia has only played 18 games in a Vandy uniform, not nearly enough to rank among the school’s career leaders in total yards or touchdowns. But he does rank No. 1 all-time in most of the rate stats — touchdown percentage (7.8%), interception percentage (1.7%), yards per attempt (8.3) and pass efficiency (155.7). And that’s strictly as a passer; he’s also on pace to leave with the school record for rushing yards by a QB.
From a scouting standpoint, the 5-foot-(redacted) Pavia is not in Jay Cutler’s class as a future pro. But in Cutler’s 4 years on campus, the Commodores won a grand total of 11 games. (Some of us are old enough to remember the previously obscure Cutler emerging as a prospect for the feat of leading the ‘Dores to a 5-6 record in his senior year, which in fairness was a stunning achievement at the time.) Pavia has already presided over more wins (12) in fewer than half as many starts, including, of course, the biggest win in school history.
Few other modern Vandy quarterbacks have managed to hold down the job long enough to make an impression. The only other candidate with more than a dozen wins as a starter in the past 40 years: Kyle Shurmur, who was 19-24 on the job from 2015-18. Locals remember Shurmur fondly for leading a 3-game win streak over Tennessee. Who else remembers him at all?
By the Remember This Guy? standard, at least, Pavia has already clinched the title with room to spare. Now he has the opportunity to lap the field.
I’d advise waiting to see what happens this weekend at Alabama before anointing him as a Heisman candidate. (In fact, the way this season is shaping up, I’m holding off until November before I anoint anyone as a Heisman candidate.) Unlike his idol and patron saint Johnny Manziel in his Heisman-winning season, Pavia will not have the benefit of catching the Tide with their pants down after last year’s ambush in Nashville. But then, the fact that Pavia readily inspires the comparison speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Once you’ve convinced the rest of the world to take Vanderbilt football seriously, every step after that seems to get a little shorter.
Last week: 2⬆
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama
OK, so in retrospect maybe we should have waited for Simpson to play more than 1 game before calling for an investigation by the Bust Police. Since the Tide’s opening-day nightmare at Florida State, he’s been arguably the best quarterback in the conference, and he was borderline unconscious in the first half of Saturday’s 24-21 win at Georgia. By halftime, he’d already accounted for 192 yards, 6 3rd-down conversions and 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) en route to a 24-14 halftime lead. Not long ago, that would have been considered a respectable outing by the visiting QB in Sanford Stadium for a full 4 quarters — and that’s without factoring in a couple of flat-out drops on 2 of Simpson’s best throws. Dude was absolutely dealing.
Predictably, the going got tougher in the second half, when the offense failed to add to the lead even while continuing to move the ball in methodical fashion. (Despite the goose egg on the scoreboard, 4 of Bama’s 5 2nd-half possessions actually ended in Georgia territory, resulting in a comically errant field goal attempt; a turnover on downs at midfield; a very conservative punt from the UGA 40-yard line; and victory formation following a pair of clutch 3rd-down conversions, respectively.) Still, Simpson’s 90.1 QBR rating for the game was the 2nd-best by an opposing quarterback in Athens since the start of the 2021 season, eclipsed only by Haynes King’s 91.0 in an epic, 8-overtime upset bid by Georgia Tech last November. The loss marked the end of the Bulldogs’ 33-game home winning streak dating to 2019.
Few if any players in America are under more week-in, week-out scrutiny that QB1 at Alabama, and Simpson deserves credit for riding out the storm of negativity that followed the FSU game with his confidence intact. Take another look at the highlights, though, and pay attention to what you don’t see: A single rep disrupted by a Georgia pass rusher.
That was hardly cherry-picking for the sizzle reel, either. Per the film eaters at Pro Football Focus, Simpson enjoyed pristine pockets on Saturday night more or less from start to finish, facing pressure on just 9 of his 41 drop-backs. The Bulldogs struggled to lay a hand on him, finishing with 0 sacks and only 4 hits. (They were technically credited with a sack, but it came on a trick play that resulted in WR Germie Bernard getting dropped behind the line, not Simpson.) Quarterbacks always bear some responsibility for their own self-preservation, which for a pocket type like Simpson boils down to quick decision-making and an even quicker release. But his o-line, so much maligned after the opener, played about as well as it could play with the season on the line in one of the toughest environments in the sport.
Contrast that with the loss in Tallahassee, which was defined by Simpson’s struggles under duress. Florida State generated pressure on 19 of his 51 drop-backs, including 3 sacks and multiple hits; in real time, it felt significantly worse, especially as the game plan unraveled in comeback mode. The indelible image of the afternoon was of Simpson, under fire, scrambling wildly out of one would-be disaster and into another.
In 3 games since, he’s been vastly better protected and only sacked once. Surprise: Give a blue-chip quarterback time and space to operate, and suddenly, wow, he looks like a blue-chip quarterback. Amazing. Bama still has some work to do to restore its full faith and credit, but as long as Simpson is in his comfort zone, the Tide are SEC Championship contenders with rising national championship odds to boot.
Last week: 9⬆
3. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Chambliss is the biggest riser in this week’s rankings, as he continues to leave Lane Kiffin with no choice but to leave him on the field. His 3rd start as a Rebel was a little sloppier than his first 2, courtesy of a shaky start and a vastly improved LSU defense that had already put preseason Heisman favorites Cade Klubnik and DJ Lagway through hell over the first few weeks of the season. Once he found his rhythm, though, Chambliss made the Tigers look indistinguishable from Tulane. He accounted for 391 of the Rebels’ 484 total yards in a 24-19 win, recording his 3rd game in as many weeks with 300+ yards passing and 50+ yards rushing.
If Chambliss is actually 6-feet tall, as claimed in his official bio, I’ll eat my hat. (If you’ve been wondering “how did this guy ever wind up at Ferris State?” start there.) But aside from a couple of batted passes at the line, limitations on his skill set so far appear to be mostly in the eye of the beholder. Per PFF, Chambliss is 11-for-15 on attempts of 20+ air yards, including 3-for-5 against LSU. He can throw with touch, he can rip it into tight windows, he can make plays on the move. “Division II quarterback” makes for a fine narrative about the improbable trajectory of his career, but it has no bearing on his skill set.
Obviously, whatever lingering doubt there was before Saturday that Chambliss is the starter going forward, go ahead and put it to bed. Ole Miss is still invested in opening-day starter Austin Simmons, who is still the future. (Chambliss is a fifth-year senior in his final year of eligibility.) The Rebels should do whatever they have to do to make sure Simmons remains in the fold. But if they’re going to make good on the opportunity that slipped through their fingers in 2024, it’s going to be behind Chambliss, who woke up on Sunday morning as a legitimate Heisman candidate on a team that just rocketed into the top four in the AP poll for the first time in a decade. If there’s still a risk he’ll suddenly turn into a pumpkin on road trips to Georgia and/or Oklahoma, it’s worth it. • Last week: 11⬆
4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
If it seemed like Stockton didn’t get much face time in the Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama, there’s a good reason for that: He didn’t. For one thing, Bama’s elite 3rd-down efficiency succeeded in keeping the ball out of his hands, resulting in an 11-minute advantage in time of possession. Georgia ran just 53 plays to the Crimson Tide’s 77. For another, the ground game didn’t give the Dawgs much incentive to air it out; Georgia piled up 227 yards rushing on 6.9 per carry, fueled by a breakout performance by redshirt freshman Chauncey Bowens.
When he did put it in the air, Stockton was fine, finishing 13-for-20 for 130 yards and a touchdown on a sweet slant-and-go route by Colbie Young. However, his most memorable throw of the night, by far, was one that didn’t connect: A flat-out drop by 5-star freshman Talyn Taylor on what woulda/shoulda been a go-ahead touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.
Yeah, Bama’s star receiver dropped a wide-open touchdown, too. Yeah, Georgia had several more chances after this one, including a critical turnover on downs inside the Alabama 10-yard line in the 4th quarter. But for an offense haunted by dropped passes in 2024, watching yet another ball clang off the hands of a prized recruit was an especially ominous way to lose.
Last week: 5⬆
5. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
I’m still a little squishy on Reed. On one hand, he’s the emerging face of a top-10 team; averaging just shy of 300 yards per game in total offense; and has looked the part in a couple of high-profile wins over Notre Dame and Auburn. On the other, he ranks 11th among SEC starters in Total QBR and 14th in PFF grading. He completed fewer than half of his passes in South Bend, where his stat line benefited from some impressive YAC. The ground game and defense carried the day in a low-scoring slugfest against Auburn.
Not that the Aggies need him to hang the moon to keep winning against a favorable schedule — they don’t face another currently ranked team until an Oct. 25 trip to LSU. If they’re still undefeated at that point, Reed will feature prominently in the Heisman odds whether the stats back it up or not. (He’s already hovering in the top-10 range in a wide-open race.) At any rate, after last year’s surge into the top 10 collapsed in a 1-4 and another unranked finish, surely no one in College Station is taking anything for granted.
Last week: 6⬆
6. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Green has his faults, but on the lengthy list of reasons Sam Pittman was forced to walk to the plank following Saturday’s 56-13 humiliation against Notre Dame, his quarterback barely registers. It’s a testament to just how bad the Hogs have been defensively that even the presence of the FBS leader in total offense was not enough to save them from the abyss. Is the elevation of (ugh) Bobby Petrino to interim head coach? Don’t bet on it – Arkansas likely won’t be favored in any of its last 7 games on the other side of an open date, 5 of which are against teams currently ranked in the AP top 20. At this point, the only thing left to salvage in Green’s final year of eligibility is his potential as a draftable prospect — and potentially becoming the first Arkansas QB to rush for 1,000 yards.
Last week: 3⬇
7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
Josh Heupel‘s system relies as heavily on play-action as any offense in America, and through 5 games, Aguilar has been dramatically better as a play-action passer than on straight drop-backs — so much better, in fact, that he almost looks like a different quarterback. The splits, per PFF:
For context, on the “Play Action” row, Aguilar ranks No. 1 in the FBS in drop-backs, attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns, and 5th in overall grade. On the “No Play Action” row, he’s just a guy eking out a living at the Mendoza line. Something to keep in mind as Tennessee continue to deploy a committee approach to replacing All-American workhorse Dylan Sampson in the backfield, with mediocre results in its first 2 SEC games. If the Vols are struggling to run the ball, they’re struggling, period.
Last week: 8⬆
8. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Pribula’s stat line in a 42-6 win over UMass was about as chill as they come: 26-for-29 passing, 21 consecutive completions, 0 gains of 20+ yards. The jury remains out until Alabama rolls into town on the other side of an open date, or until an opposing defense finally forces Pribula into a situation where Mizzou is not running the ball at will.
Last week: 7⬇
9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
If Shane Beamer had his way, every game would unfold like Saturday’s 35-13 win over Kentucky: With the defense and/or special teams setting the tone early and the offense shifting into cruise control at halftime. Carolina effectively pulled away with back-to-back defensive touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, turning a 10-7 deficit into a 21-10 lead without the ball touching Sellers’ hands. For his part, Sellers finished an efficient 11-for-14 passing for 153 yards with another 81 yards rushing. The Gamecocks are off this week, but if they’re going to survive their upcoming gauntlet against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M – combined record: 20-2 – they’re probably going to need more than “efficient” from their would-be Heisman contender.
Last week: 10⬆
10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
If Trinidad Chambliss was on the escalator going up Saturday, Nussmeier was passing him on the way down. The erstwhile Heisman candidate looked harried and juiceless in a game that, for the first time this season, he couldn’t count on his defense to gift-wrap. Ole Miss’ defense routinely dropped 8 defenders into coverage, dared Nussmeier to make throws from the pocket, and reaped the benefits when he couldn’t. He struggled with accuracy, posed little threat downfield (1-for-7 on attempts of 20+ air yards), and served up a ghastly pick into double coverage.
LSU’s inability to get anything going on the ground didn’t help. Even against light boxes that invited Nussmeier to hand off, the Tigers managed just 59 yards rushing on 2.8 per carry, with a long gain of 10 yards. In fact, the offense’s performance in Oxford was not much of a departure from its mediocre outings in low-scoring wins over Clemson and Florida, which is exactly what made LSU fans so uneasy about winning ugly in those games.
At the moment, Clemson and Florida don’t even look like particularly impressive skins to have on the wall — they’re a combined 1-4 against their other FBS opponents. What kind of marquee win plummets in value before October? To the extent the Tigers felt like either game (but especially the Week 1 win at Clemson) said anything about their Playoff prospects, Saturday was a wake-up call.
Last week: 4⬇
11. Arch Manning, Texas
For once, Manning won’t be the quarterback under the most pressure when Texas visits Florida – unlike DJ Lagway, at least he can be reasonably certain that, no matter how much his performance might inflame the Internet, it’s not going to directly cost his head coach his job. But the trip to The Swamp is the first road test since Manning’s opening-day humbling at Ohio State, and the first stop in a month-long tour before the Longhorns’ next home game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1. That also makes it an opportunity to nip any simmering “Arch can’t handle hostile environments” buzz in the bud.
Last week: 12⬆
12. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
Another week, another brutal outing for Arnold under siege. In the Tigers’ Week 4 loss at Oklahoma, Arnold absorbed a school-record 10 sacks on 48 drop-backs. In Saturday’s 16-10 loss at Texas A&M, he was sacked 5 times on 43 drop-backs. Is Hugh Freeze trying to get his quarterback crushed?
Unofficial Rankings policy dictates that stats are a QB stat. In Arnold’s case, especially, the trend has followed him to Auburn from Oklahoma, where he was the SEC’s most-sacked quarterback in 2024 despite missing multiple games. But playing in an offense that has largely abandoned the run in its first 2 conference games in favor of asking Arnold to drop back 40+ times is certainly not doing him any favors. As bad as the offense has been — and it could not have been much worse in College Station — both games have been competitive, defensively-driven affairs that were within reach from start to finish. The scoreboard never dictated resorting to chuck-and-duck. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ top running backs, Jeremiah Cobb and Damari Alston, logged just 21 combined carries against OU and A&M despite averaging 5.9 yards a pop. Arnold’s average per drop-back, including positive gains on scrambles and negative yardage on sacks: 3.6 yards.
Look, Freeze didn’t invest in a 5-star talent behind center and big-ticket upgrades at wide receiver to call 50 handoffs per game. But some balance is in order. He vowed after Saturday’s loss that “we’re going to reevaluate everything on our offense” with 2 weeks to prepare for a Week 7 date with Georgia. An 0-3 start in SEC play for the 3rd year in a row would be bad enough. But enduring it with an offense accounting for more zeroes on the payroll than touchdowns only adds insult to injury.
Last week: 13⬆
13. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ upset bid against Tennessee leaned more heavily on the ground game than on Shapen’s arm, and even more heavily on field position: 3 of MSU’s 4 touchdowns were a result of short fields following turnovers. But the generosity went both ways: 2 of Tennessee’s 4 touchdowns in regulation came directly via the defense, courtesy of a pick-6 in the first half and a scoop-and-score off of a monster strip sack in the second.
Considering the pick-6 was the result of a deflection and the strip sack came from the blindside, arguably neither were really Shapen’s fault. Still, factor in 5 sacks, and his final 22.9 QBR rating was among the worst of his career.
Last week: 14⬆
14. DJ Lagway, Florida
Lagway got a week off to recuperate from a couple of catastrophic outings against rivals LSU and Miami – or to stew in them, depending on your perspective. Either way, September was a nightmare, and it doesn’t get any easier: Back-to-back dates against Texas and Texas A&M are on deck, with Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State looming in November.
Pretty much no one outside of Florida’s locker room still expects Billy Napier to be around by then. But if he is, it will be because Lagway used the open date to get back to first principles: Let it rip. As a freshman, he was electric throwing downfield, connecting on 19-of-36 attempts of 20+ air yards for an SEC-best 20.4 yards per attempt. Through four games this year, he’s a dismal 1-for-7, the lone completion coming on an improbable 1-handed grab in the opener against Long Island U.
Last week: 15⬆
15. Michael Hawkins Jr., Oklahoma
Hawkins makes his Rankings debut in place of the injured John Mateer, who presumably (hopefully) will not be missed this weekend against 45-point underdog Kent State. After that, the entire state of Oklahoma is holding vigil for Mateer’s return ASAP against a brutal slate over the second half of the season, beginning with the annual rivalry date against Texas in Week 7. As a freshman, Hawkins looked in over his head against the Longhorns last year in just his second career start, a 34-3 loss that effectively ended his audition for the full-time job. (Hawkins earned 1 more start the following week against South Carolina, which went much worse.) The Sooners are “optimistic” Mateer’s surgically repaired hand will be fully mended in time for Red River, which is a polite way of saying leaving their Playoff odds in Hawkins’ hands is not a viable option.
Last week: n/a
16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky
Boley’s first career road start at South Carolina could have gone worse, but not by much. After leading a couple of extended scoring drives on Kentucky’s first 2 possessions, the night went sideways in a hurry: The Wildcats’ next 5 possessions yielded 4 giveaways, a turnover on downs, and an insurmountable 28-10 deficit at halftime. Two of those turnovers — a fumble return off a strip sack, immediately followed by a pick-6— resulted in 2 Carolina touchdowns in a span of less than 2 minutes. Kentucky never threatened again.
In addition to the turnovers, Boley was also sacked 6 times. His 10.8 QBR rating and 29.2 PFF grade were both the worst to date this season by an SEC starter. Next up: At Georgia. Godspeed, son.
Last week: 16⬌
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
