SEC QB Rankings, Week 9: Taylen Green, legend of the losing effort
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8.
1. Ty Simpson, Alabama
In another sport, perhaps Simpson’s rise from the ashes to Heisman favorite would serve as a lesson in the perils of overreaction. Since Bama’s opening-day debacle at Florida State, he’s been unflappable, posting a 183.8 passer rating with 16 touchdowns vs. 1 interception against a gauntlet of a schedule – with Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee, the Crimson Tide became the first SEC team ever to beat 4 consecutive ranked opponents in as many weeks. (Others have won 4 straight, but not without an open date in the process.) In college football, of course, we will learn nothing and go right on exercising our inalienable right to overreact to the last thing that happened at all times. But as long as that continues to be highly efficient outings in quality wins, Simpson is golden.
Last week: 1⬌
2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
The urge to compare Pavia to his spirit guide, Johnny Manziel, has always felt a little like the program listing Pavia at 6-feet tall: Strictly aspirational, but not by so much that you can’t be convinced to round up in his favor. The connection has never been harder to deny than it was Saturday in a 31-24 win over LSU, which in addition to vaulting Vandy into the AP top 10 for the first time in 78 years (!) produced a couple of the most Manziel-ian highlights of Pavia’s career.
In the same spirit — on the same possession, in fact — Pavia effectively launched his own Heisman campaign a few plays later when he struck the pose at the end of a 21-yard touchdown run that supplied the eventual winning margin. Vanderbilt followed up on Monday with an official website promoting his bid under the hashtag #2Turnt; Heisman oddsmakers and straw polls alike responded by promoting Pavia to the shortlist of viable candidates heading into the last weekend of October. He’ll have another high-profile opportunity this weekend with College GameDay coming to Nashville for what amounts to a Playoff elimination match against Missouri. The Commodores (-2.5) opened as narrow home favorites vs. a top-15 opponent for the second week in a row.
Forget the stats: Those previous 2 sentences alone are worth taking Pavia’s prospects seriously. Why not Diego? If the momentum carries over into November, it’s on the verge of taking on a life of its own.
Last week: 3⬆
3. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Stockton could not have done much more to raise his stock in Georgia’s high-octane win over Ole Miss. The tit-for-tat pace left him with little margin for error, and he didn’t need it, finishing a near-flawless 26-for-31 passing for 289 yards, 4 touchdowns, and season-highs for passer rating (204.8), Total QBR (96.9) and overall PFF grade (91.0) in a reputation-making performance. On 5 different occasions, Ole Miss scored to take or extend the lead; on all 5 occasions, the Bulldogs responded with a scoring drive, managing to stay close on the Rebels’ heels through 3 quarters before pulling away decisively in the 4th.
Previously I’ve compared Stockton to a slightly bigger version of Stetson Bennett IV (complimentary), but that might be selling his skill-set short. Pressed into a situation in which the offense was literally forced to score every time it touched the ball, he was up to the moment. Stockton was sharp downfield, connecting on 8-of-10 attempts of 10+ air yards; made a difference as a runner, weaving his way to a 22-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter; and never put the ball at risk on an afternoon when a turnover in either direction almost certainly would have spelled doom for the team that committed it. His last incomplete pass came just before halftime; in the second half, he finished 12-for-12 while leading 4 consecutive scoring drives to ice the game.
None of that would have possible without the surrounding cast, which also turned in its best game of the season. The o-line, fully intact for the first time this season, kept Stockton clean on all but 7 of his 35 drop-backs, per PFF, and didn’t allow a hit or sack. The receivers, collectively known as a butterfinger-y group, hauled in 4-of-5 contested catch attempts without a drop. Running backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens piled up 133 yards on 4.9 per carry. The tight ends finally got involved; Zachariah Branch did Zachariah Branch things after the catch. When all the pieces come together, the Bulldogs still have the makings of a championship attack. And Stockton is emerging as the most important piece, by far.
The question is just how often the defense is going to continue to leave the offense with zero margin for error in a shootout. Georgia has trailed by 2 scores now at some point in 4 of its 5 SEC wins this season, an ongoing trend that began last year, which is a hard way to make a living no matter how many times you manage to pull it off. The Dawgs successfully rallied in the second half against Tennessee, Auburn and Ole Miss, getting just enough defense to take the Vols to overtime in Knoxville and to make the Rebels doubt whether they’d actually have a chance after a lopsided 4th quarter. On the other hand, they didn’t have quite enough juice to pull off the comeback against Alabama despite shutting the Tide out after halftime. Nobody should expect a revival of a vintage UGA defense circa 2022, which the current D is not by a long shot. If it can just give the offense a little breathing room, that would be worth a sigh of relief.
Last week: 4⬆
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Green continues to deliver one epic “In a Losing Effort” performance after another. Against Texas A&M, he accounted for 341 yards, 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing), and a stellar 95.4 QBR rating in a 45-42 defeat — yet another weekly testament to just how thoroughly his talents are being wasted opposite the Razorbacks’ catastrophic defense.
For some context, consider that there have been 27 instances this season of an SEC quarterback finishing with an individual QBR rating of 85.0 or higher. In those games, said quarterbacks have a record of 23-4. One of those 4 losses was Ole Miss’ shootout loss at Georgia, where the Rebels’ Trinidad Chambliss (88.4) was outdueled by Gunner Stockton (96.9). The other 3 are Arkansas’ 3 conference losses to date:
Look, you’re not going to catch me out here calling Taylen Green the next Patrick Mahomes. Green’s NFL Draft projections at this stage are all over the place. I’m just saying, the last guy who led the nation in total offense on a losing team with a defense fully engulfed in flames, as Green does currently, should serve as a useful reminder to look beyond the standings. Circumstances matter. The Hogs’ season might be hopeless. But with Green, at least they’ve been consistently competitive. Blowout loss to Notre Dame notwithstanding, he has given them a fighting chance on a weekly basis. Without him, they might as well be simming to the end of the season and the arrival of the new coach.
Last week: 2⬇
5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Green played brilliantly for 3 quarters against Georgia, leading Ole Miss to five touchdowns on its first 5 offensive possessions. In the 4th, he abruptly turned into a pumpkin. The Rebels entered the final frame leading by 2 scores, 35-26, and needing above all to burn clock. Instead, their last 3 possessions combined spanned less than 2 minutes, resulting in 2 3-and-outs and a brisk turnover on downs to end the game. Their Playoff hopes remain very much intact against a manageable schedule, but lingering doubts about their ability to close against CFP-caliber competition aren’t going away until they actually manage to do it.
Last week: 6⬆
6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
Reed turned in his best stat line of the season in a shootout win at Arkansas, but then, every quarterback who faces the Razorbacks tends to come in for his best stat line of the season. Altogether, A&M’s 4 SEC wins to date have come at the expense of opponents with a combined 2-12 record in conference play. This weekend’s trip to LSU is the first of 3 road tests down the stretch (along with November dates at Missouri and Texas) that will determine the Aggies’ course in the postseason.
Last week: 7⬆
7. John Mateer, Oklahoma
The Sooners saw no reason to exceed the speed limit against South Carolina, cruising to a 26-7 win in generally plodding fashion. For his part, Mateer connected on just 2-of-5 attempts of 10+ air yards, per PFF, with an average depth of target of of 4.1 yards and a long gain of just 20. One one hand, that’s a welcome development for an offense that leaned much too heavily on Mateer as a passer and a runner prior to the hand injury that briefly sidelined him at the end of September. On the other, surviving a brutal home stretch against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU with Playoff ambitions intact is almost certainly going to require the resident MVP to be at his best.
Last week: 8⬆
8. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Any game in which Mizzou’s run-first offense winds up calling for Pribula to drop back 47 times is one in which something has gone very wrong. In that sense – and only that sense – escaping Auburn with a 23-17 win in double overtime was a relief. Going forward, though, the Tigers are not likely to face many opponents quite as eager to shoot themselves in the foot as Auburn, and they’re certainly not going to win another game averaging 2.1 yards per carry while Pribula throws multiple interceptions. Sustaining Playoff momentum with Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Oklahoma on deck is going to require keeping him in his comfort zone.
Last week: 9⬆
9. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
Aguilar could have used more help Saturday from his surrounding cast, which combined for 5 drops in the Vols’ loss at Alabama. (A recurring theme: Per PFF, no other FBS quarterback has endured more drops this season than Aguilar, with 22.) But the play that swung the tide against them for good fell squarely on the quarterback and his coaches.
Tennessee, training 16-7, had the ball at Bama’s 1-yard line with no timeouts and 9 seconds left in the half — an obvious passing situation, given that an incomplete pass that left time for one more snap would be vastly preferable to a failed run that ended the half. Call your best 2-point pass! Instead, the offense lined up in an old-school goal-line formation featuring 3 tight ends, a fullback, and zero receivers in a bid to get Bama to overcommit to defending a power run that almost certainly was not in the cards. No dice: Neither the personnel nor the ensuing play-action fake fooled a soul on the defense, and a lazy, badly underthrown pass by Aguilar was ripe for the picking.
The throw itself was worse than the call, but not by much. The look on the Tennessee coaches’ faces said it all: We just blew our best chance to get back in the game on a play that stood no chance.
Last week: 5⬇
10. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
The next 4 entries all follow a theme: Preseason Heisman frontrunner laid low by some murky combination of his own failures and his team’s, with the distinction becoming less relevant by the week.
In Nussmeier’s case, it was difficult to separate his struggles in LSU’s 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt from the Tigers’ glaring issues up front. The starting left tackle, Tyree Adams, left the game due to injury in the first quarter, in the midst of an eventual touchdown drive; from that point on, LSU only reached the end zone once more over the final 3 quarters, as the result of what can only be described as a fluke play that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown.
Credit to Zavion Thomas for keeping the spark alive, however briefly, but Nussmeier spent most of his afternoon in Nashville running for his life with not much else to show for it. He was under duress on 13 of his 30 drop-backs, per PFF, which chalked up the majority of those pressures to Adams’ backup of the left side, DJ Chester, and the regular starter on the right, Weston Davis. But then, he didn’t fare much better when kept clean, averaging a meager 4.5 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 3.5 yards. He missed on his only attempt of 20+ air yards, settling for a heavy diet of screens that accomplished little. Vandy dominated time of possession in the second half, sending the Tigers home on a pair of meek 4th-quarter punts following back-to-back 3-and-outs to close the game.
Nussmeier’s campaign has not landed with quite the thud as some of the blue-chip names below him here, but for a guy who was widely touted as an aspiring first-rounder coming into the season he is Just a Guy — squarely in the middle of the pack statistically and athletically. He’s also arrived at the point on the calendar when last year’s 6-1 start unraveled in a 3-game losing streak, including a couple of dismal outings against Texas A&M and Alabama. The Aggies and Crimson Tide have improved this time around. Time is running out for Nussmeier to say the same.
Last week: 10⬌
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Has Sellers lived up to the hype? Not even close. Has he had a chance? Not even close. Few QB have been under duress more often than Sellers, who has faced pressure on 47.9% of his drop-backs this season, per PFF. Only 1 other full-time FBS quarterback, UMass’ AJ Hairston, has been pressured at a higher rate. (UMass has not won a game.) The number is a little over 53% in SEC play, easily the highest rate in a conference where talented quarterbacks struggling under pressure are all too common. It doesn’t get any easier from here, with Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M on deck. The point is rapidly approaching at which the question shifts from whether he’ll survive the rest of the year to whether he has any interest in coming back in 2026.
Last week: 12⬆
12. DJ Lagway, Florida
The grim march of the Billy Napier era in Gainesville is over. Now comes the fallout. At the top of the list of questions for the next head coach: Is Lagway’s potential still worth whatever it’s going to cost to keep him in the fold?
For his part, Lagway doesn’t seem to be thinking that far ahead, telling reporters “I’m a Florida Gator, man” in response to questions about a potential transfer. He did not add “for the next 6 weeks, anyway,” but that part might as well be implied. Frankly, the incoming administration might need some convincing. As it stands, Lagway ranks dead last among SEC starters in interception rate, adjusted yards per attempt and Total QBR, and next-to-last in efficiency. After letting it rip to great fanfare as a freshman, he’s been among the least adventurous and least accurate throwing downfield in Year 2, with eight completions on 25 attempts of 20+ air yards. He’s had minimal impact as a runner. Outside of the Gators’ 29-21 upset over Texas in Week 5, he’s yet to move the needle in any other game.
The other side of the coin, of course, is that Lagway is still just a sophomore who has been thrust into the position of bailing out a sinking ship from pretty much the moment he set foot on campus. The only break he has enjoyed from the toxic storm of speculation surrounding his head coach’s status came at the end of last season, after the university declared Napier’s job was safe just to get people to shut up about it; those few weeks are the best of Lagway’s career to date, resulting in the 4-game win streak that fueled optimism entering 2025. False hope, in the end. But to the extent that the last 5 games of this season are an audition for his future – whether it’s at Florida or elsewhere – maybe having the weight of the hot seat removed from his shoulders will turn out again to be exactly what he needed.
Last week: 13⬆
13. Arch Manning, Texas
Another week, another inscrutable performance from Manning, who cannot even get out of a routine road trip to Kentucky without alerting the Bust Police to his presence. Coming off his most reassuring outing of the year against Oklahoma, Manning regressed to struggle mode in a close shave in Lexington, completing just 12-of-27 passes for 4.9 yards per attempt on a rock-bottom night for the Texas offense as a whole. The Longhorns finished with their fewest yards (179) and first downs (8) in more than a decade, and only reached the end zone as a result of a punt return that set up the offense at the Wildcats 5-yard line. (Another big return into UK territory set up a go-ahead field goal on Texas’ final possession of regulation.) Manning turned in season lows for passer rating (85.5) and Total QBR (25.0) in what was very nearly a season-derailing disaster.
As always, it is not all about Arch. His offensive line remains a safety hazard, particularly true freshman guard Nick Brooks, who continues to look like … well, like a true freshman thrust unexpectedly into the starting lineup in SEC play. PFF charged Brooks with 6 pressures allowed against Kentucky, including all 3 of the Wildcats’ sacks. That brings him up to an alarming 19 pressures allowed in the past 3 games. But let’s spare the rookie the brunt for the entire unit. PFF also cited center Connor Robertson, a career backup filling in due to injury, with 5 pressures, and regular tackles Brandon Baker and Trevor Goosby with 3 apiece — red flags across the board. (The only Texas lineman who wasn’t charged with a pressure on Saturday was senior DJ Campbell, who remains a pillar at right guard while the rest of the front threatens to collapse around him.) Manning never established a rhythm under constant duress, and the inability (or unwillingness) to establish the ground game didn’t help.
But whatever plays were there to be made, Manning was rarely making them. He was 8-for-16 for 70 yards on clean drop-backs, including a heavy diet of screens that fell behind the line of scrimmage; he was just 6-of-16 throwing beyond the line, where he didn’t bother to challenge Kentucky downfield and continued to routinely miss open receivers. And with a number like 6-for-16, there’s no need to cherry-pick to get the point across: Accuracy is plainly a recurring issue.
In his previous road trips, losses at Ohio State and Florida, Manning managed to offset some of his erratic tendencies and salvage some respectability on the stat sheet by connecting on a handful of downfield shots in both games. There wasn’t so much as a glimpse of that aspect of his game on Saturday night, for whatever reason. The defense was holding up its end up of the bargain, his protection wasn’t, and (by the way) Kentucky succeeded in its effort to shorten the game by racking up a nearly 2-to-1 advantage in time of possession in regulation. Texas ran just 55 offensive plays, including setting up the game-winning field goal in overtime after the defense stuffed Kentucky on 3 straight plays from the 1-yard line on the Wildcats’ turn with the ball. By that point, though, ‘Horns fans had seen enough to know they got away with one in a game they were favored to win comfortably, and that if the situation doesn’t improve ASAP it might be the last.
Last week: 11⬇
14. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
This weekend’s trip to Arkansas is a collision of easily resisted force vs. imminently movable object. Auburn’s offense ranks last or next-to-last in SEC play in virtually every category, including total offense, scoring offense, yards per play, pass efficiency, 3rd-down conversions and sacks allowed. Arkansas’ defense is the league’s worst by all of those measures and many more, allowing a ghastly 41.6 points per game in the Hogs’ 5 losses. If Arnold can’t get the plane off the ground in Fayetteville, it ain’t happening with him at the controls – or, most likely, with Hugh Freeze on the sideline.
Last week: 14⬌
15. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
All things considered, Shapen had a perfectly cromulent afternoon in the Bulldogs’ 23-21 loss at Florida right up until the end. But this is one of those cases where focusing on anything other than the end is like asking, “other than that. Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
How many points can a single play accrue on the Calamity Scale? Game-ending pick within range of the game-winning field goal? Jackpot. Coming from a 6th-year senior in his 34th career start? Even better (worse). Bonus demerits for a direct hit to the waiting mitts of a 349-pound defensive tackle. And by extending the Bulldogs’ SEC losing streak to 15 games and counting, it achieved a near-perfect score of negativity. Here was a play so bad the other team responded by firing its head coach just hours after the victory. The only points left on the board were by virtue of not coming against a rival. Fingers crossed for the Egg Bowl.
Last week: 15⬌
16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky
On paper, Kentucky’s torture-drip game plan against Texas was a success. Boley finished with career-highs for completion percentage (79.5%), total offense (303 yards) and Total QBR (80.8); as a team, the Wildcats racked up a season-high 26 first downs and a nearly 2-to-1 surplus in time of possession. On the scoreboard? Thirteen points in a losing effort despite a dominant outing by the defense. Two giveaways, 3 empty trips inside the UT 30-yard line, and a couple of killer breakdowns by the punt coverage unit tend to have that effect.
Last week: 16⬌
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
