I’ve got you, casual college basketball fan.
You know who you are. You’re the type of person who does all of your bracket research in the next week. You want to have a clue what’s going on during conference tournament weekend, and thus, you read stories like this to help you get more informed.
Our guy Adam Spencer (@AdamSpencer4) has been crushing all things hoops for us throughout the 2019-20 season. You should read his “Starting 5” column if you want a great national view heading into the NCAA Tournament.
But my goal today is to help you, reader of this column, prepare for all things SEC Tournament. So, here’s what you need to know about the week ahead in Nashville:
The Coronavirus latest
On Thursday, the first case of Coronavirus was found in Tennessee. That prompted the SEC to release the following statement to USA Today ahead of the tournament in Nashville:
“The SEC remains in regular communication with local, state and national public health officials, including the Tennessee Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as our member schools and tournament hosts in Nashville. At this time, the Conference has not modified any scheduled events related to next week’s SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament, while reminding everyone to be attentive to everyday preventive actions identified by the CDC.”
That’s the good news. As of Sunday night, there was no plan for these games to be played in an empty Bridgestone Arena like the 2008 SEC Tournament when a tornado hit the Georgia Dome. That could change, and it could impact other elements of the weekend production.
Big Ten Network studio analysts who were scheduled to make the trip to Indianapolis canceled because of Coronavirus. There’s been no word on any change for the SEC Network crew. For what it’s worth, the SEC Network studio crew for the women’s tournament still traveled to Greenville, SC.
In addition to being exposed to large, public places, obviously the big fear is flying. For fan bases facing a drive of longer than 8 hours like Florida, LSU and Texas A&M, this could absolutely factor into the decision to make the trip. Fortunately, Nashville is centrally located enough to where the drive is more manageable for those other fan bases.
But will attendance be down? I’d be stunned if it weren’t. That’s been par for the course lately.
The Round 1 matchups that could actually be interesting?
Ok, so let’s talk actual basketball stuff. Here’s the bracket:
‼️ANNOUNCEMENT‼️ The #SECMBB seeds are SET.
Your 2020 #SECTourney Bracket
See you March 11th. pic.twitter.com/qZGt6TSTlK
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) March 8, 2020
The No. 13 seed (Georgia) and No. 14 seed (Vanderbilt) were already locked in before the final weekend of the regular season. But dare I say, they’re a touch more intriguing than the typical bottom slots.
Why? Obviously Georgia has potential No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards, who is someone that at the very least, has potential to take over a game like he did against Arkansas a couple of weeks earlier. Seeing him for 40 minutes won’t be fun.
And Vandy, by virtue of a surprising win against South Carolina, won 2 conference games to end the regular season, which was 1 more than it had in the entire time since the 2018-19 SEC season started. Yowza. Is Jerry Stackhouse’s young team figuring it out? South Carolina and Alabama aren’t exactly cellar-dwellers.
Consider that my way of saying, hey, maybe that opening round can be sort of fun? Here’s hoping.
Have Auburn and LSU righted the ship?
Coming into the final weekend, Auburn was 2-4 in its previous 6 games and LSU was 3-6 in its previous 9. Then, both teams went out and dropped the hammer to close the regular season. I’d argue Auburn’s hammer at Tennessee was a bit more powerful considering the Vols were coming off that stunning win in Lexington, but LSU’s was still plenty impressive, as well.
During Auburn’s rough stretch, it struggled offensively without Isaac Okoro. Granted, the Tigers still lost 2 games when he returned and played 34-plus minutes. But on days when Samir Doughty doesn’t catch fire — that wasn’t an issue against Tennessee — the Tigers need the true freshman to step up.
LSU’s rough stretch, on the other hand, was fueled by defensive struggles, especially on the perimeter. Despite the bounce-back win against Georgia after allowing 99 against Arkansas, that question remains. And for a team that found a way to win down-to-the-wire games early in the season, LSU’s last 2-game winning streak came on Feb. 1, which was also the last of that 10-game winning streak.
Can a couple of teams with veteran guards figure things out? Sure. Doughty and J’Von McCormick have both been on this stage before, as have Skylar Mays and Javonte Smart.
Bruce Pearl and Will Wade have NCAA Tournament bids locked up after earning double byes. And the fact that both ended the regular season so decisively bodes well, but you can bet both coaches would love to figure some things out with a few games in Nashville.
Why the unknown status of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Ashton Hagans could determine the weekend
Here’s the thing: Regardless of the bizarre ending that unfolded in Saturday in Gainesville — Kentucky overcame an 18-point deficit on the road and won — there were still going to be a pair of major questions heading into the weekend.
What’s the status of Blackshear and Hagans this week? For different reasons, both of their presences are up in the air.
For Blackshear, a wrist injury sidelined him in the 2nd half of the collapse against Kentucky. Florida’s leading scorer was missed. As of right now, all we know is that Florida doesn’t believe it to be serious and that it’s just a sprain.
Still, if Blackshear isn’t at 100%, Florida could find itself in an interesting position trying to get that all-important 20th win. Florida doesn’t feel like it has much room for error — something that’s been all too true in this disappointing season — and a Blackshear injury wouldn’t exactly make Florida a popular pick to win 3 games in Nashville.
Kentucky won despite the absence of one of its key contributors. That was thanks to some dominance down the stretch from the country’s most improved player, Nick Richards. But as great as that comeback was, it covered up the fact that Hagans was at home for “personal reasons.” According to John Calipari, Hagans said: “I’m in a bad way” and benched himself following a reported altercation with the Kentucky head coach and his staff after refusing to enter a game late in a loss to Tennessee.
Calipari said after Saturday’s game that Hagans is expected to return for the SEC Tournament and beyond, which is important. His all-world level defense and ability to run the point was missed in the Florida win, and it’ll be a major factor if Kentucky makes a deep March run. The question is, will he be in the right head space this week? And is that beef with the coaching staff all in the past?
Kentucky fans were probably relieved to see that Hagans enjoyed every bit of that Kentucky win on Saturday:
Ashton Hagans is a MOOD. pic.twitter.com/d3GOfepwBD
— Tres Terrell (@TerrellTres) March 7, 2020
Surely Kentucky fans would rather he celebrate wins with the team the rest of the season.
NCAA Tournament bids up for grabs?
Here’s the crazy thing. Unlike last year, when the SEC had half the conference in the NCAA Tournament field, there’s a chance that the conference could end up with just 4 teams in. That’s what ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has as of Sunday night.
Here’s that breakdown by seed:
- No. 2 Kentucky
- No. 5 Auburn
- No. 8 LSU
- No. 9 Florida
- Mississippi State — Next 4 out
My guess is that those 4 teams are already in, and MSU with that double-bye, would potentially need to beat Florida to make the field. Yikes. A month ago, SEC Network/ESPN analyst Tom Hart told us on The SDS Podcast why he thought the Bulldogs were a sleeper Final Four team, and it didn’t sound that wild. Now, Reggie Perry and Co. would simply take getting to the play-in game.
There are teams like Arkansas, which was sitting in a favorable position to make the field for most of the year, but that 5-game losing streak hurt the Hogs’ chances of doing that in Year 1 of the Eric Musselman era. Beating Vanderbilt won’t do it, and a Mizzou win probably wouldn’t turn enough heads. A trip to the semifinals might be the only thing that can get Arkansas to the Big Dance.
South Carolina shot itself in the foot with that Vanderbilt loss. It would probably take at least a semifinal trip for Frank Martin’s squad to reach its first NCAA Tournament since that magical Final Four run in 2017.
And while even Bruce Pearl is hoping that Tennessee makes the tournament, that would’ve looked far more realistic with a win against Auburn. We could have been talking about the Vols as a super dangerous team having just beat the likes of Kentucky, Florida and Auburn. Shoot, even if the Vols repeat their 2019 SEC Tournament win against Kentucky and reach the semifinals, that might not be enough to make the field with just 3 Quad 1 wins heading into the weekend.
What’s the most realistic scenario here? That just 4 SEC teams make the field. That would mark the conference’s worst output since it had 3 teams make the tournament in 2016.
Never say never, non-double bye teams
Last year, Auburn won the SEC Tournament as a No. 5 seed. That was of course in the midst of a run that ended with a Final Four berth. That ended Kentucky’s 4-year SEC Tournament winning streak.
But more important, Auburn’s win as a No. 5 seed marked the first time that a seed lower than No. 4 won the tournament since the SEC expanded in 2013. Before Auburn did it last year, the last time an SEC team won 4 games en route to the conference tournament crown was 2009 Mississippi State (it also happened a year earlier with Georgia’s historic run with the aforementioned tornado at the Georgia Dome).
Here are the teams seeded 5-10 that could have a chance to repeat Auburn’s feat:
- No. 5 Florida
- No. 6 South Carolina
- No. 7 Texas A&M
- No. 8 Tennessee
- No. 9 Alabama
- No. 10 Mizzou
Which is the most dangerous team of that group to make a run? Florida is the obvious choice because once upon a time, the Gators went into the 2019-20 season as the No. 6 team in America. If Florida suddenly figures it out with Mike White potentially coaching for his job, well, it wouldn’t be stunning.
But what about A&M? Buzz Williams has major, um, “buzz” for SEC Coach of the Year following an improved latter half of SEC play. I thought the Aggies, in addition to beating MSU by double digits and upsetting Auburn on the road, hung with both Kentucky and LSU.
I tend to favor teams who are well-coached with these quick turnarounds. You could apply that school of thought to Tennessee with Rick Barnes, who lost in the SEC Championship each of the past 2 years. It would have been easier to picture that had Tennessee not gotten trucked by Samir Doughty and Auburn on Saturday, but the win at Kentucky at least showed the Vols can play with anyone in the conference.
My pick? Kentucky over Texas A&M
Boring? Yeah, I know. Auburn is capable of making a run, though its streaky shooting scares me to death, and I’m not sure that LSU can defend well enough for 3 consecutive games to cut down the nets.
Kentucky figuring out a way to win at Florida without Hagans was another sign to me that this team understands its identity right now. They have several guys who can get hot and carry them all weekend. I think they come out with a different edge against Tennessee this time — that’s me predicting the Vols to beat Alabama — than they did a week ago.
And A&M? A 7-seed? Sure. If there was ever a year for that to happen in the SEC, it feels 2020 is the time for that.
Auburn and LSU aren’t by any means invincible, and I can see both of them getting frustrated against a well-coached, nothing-to-lose A&M team that already defends well. The week will serve as a reminder to the job that Williams did in Year 1 in College Station. I mean, this team was predicted to finish 12th in the SEC, and that was with the expectation that T.J. Starks would be on the team. Williams will get national praise and have a chance to play for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
But I’ll still take Kentucky, who has been a solid notch above the rest of the conference for most of the year, to end the Aggies’ Cinderella story and cut down the nets in Nashville.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
