SEC Week 2 Primer: Oklahoma went all-in its offense. Can it pass its first big test vs. Michigan?

Everything you need to know about the Week 2 SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)

The stakes: In some respects, the 2025 versions of Michigan and Oklahoma are a lot alike. Both teams are name-brand powers coming off mediocre campaigns in 2024 defined by a total collapse on offense. Both teams overhauled their respective attacks with new coordinators, big-ticket additions at quarterback, and key transfers at the skill positions. Both teams have returned to the polls and are tentatively optimistic after routine wins over speed-bump competition in Week 1. The winner on Saturday night is inevitably going to bed with visions of a Playoff run dancing in their head.

In terms of urgency, though, make no mistake: This one just means more for Oklahoma. Not that Michigan isn’t duly invested in winning, as ever. But the Sooners need to win, in a way that Wolverines fans — still coasting on the emotional climax of their national title run in 2023 — should be able to appreciate. Michigan, championship itch scratched, winning streak over Ohio State still intact, has the luxury of patience: With its second-year head coach, Sherrone Moore, who bought himself a couple of extra miles’ worth of runway in Year 1 with season-ending upsets over OSU and Alabama; with its massively hyped freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who became the face of the program the moment he flipped his commitment from LSU last November; and with a remarkably friendly schedule that, after Saturday, doesn’t feature another currently-ranked opponent until the annual rivalry date with the Buckeyes. Win or lose in Norman, the Wolverines are gonna be alright.

Oklahoma is feeling the crunch. The program’s national championship drought is 25 years old, second-longest among schools that have won a title in the BCS/CFP era only to Tennessee. Coach Brent Venables, hired to bring a harder edge to a program that kept topping out in the CFP semifinals under Lincoln Riley, is squarely on the hot seat after overseeing losing records in 2 of his first 3 seasons. The Sooners invested not only in a new quarterback, Washington State transfer John Mateer, but also in his OC at Wazzu, Ben Arbuckle, to meet demands for a quick fix. After Saturday, the schedule only gets steeper, ending with seven consecutive games against teams that are currently ranked (Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU) or finished ranked in 2024 (Missouri). OU was a combined 1-6 against those teams last year, all but one of the losses coming by double digits.

The home crowd on Saturday night is going to be amped, especially following a visit from College GameDay to kick off the proceedings. They’re overdue for a reminder of what it feels like to root for a winner. The absolute last thing the Sooners need this early on the calendar is to inspire a collective groan of “here we go again.”

The stat: 2,825 yards

That was the combined passing output by Michigan and Oklahoma in 2024 in 20 games vs. Power 5 conference competition, an average of a dismal 141.3 yards per game. Out of 68 power-conferences teams (including Notre Dame), the Wolverines and Sooners ranked 66th and 67th in passing yards, respectively, ahead of only Iowa — and only then because the Hawkeyes put the ball in the air significantly less often. Between them, OU and Michigan started 5 different quarterbacks and eclipsed 200 passing yards vs. Power 5 opponents just 3 times, all in double-digit losses.

Already this year, Week 1 passing output by both Mateer (392 yards) and Underwood (251) in their respective debuts was more than either team managed through the air in any game in ’24.

The big question: Which quarterback is ready for his closeup?

Underwood is as touted as they come: The No. 1 prospect in the ’25 class at any position, he was the subject of a full-court-press recruiting process that culminated in a 4-year, $12.5 million NIL deal underwritten by aspiring billionaire oligarch Larry Ellison, whose wife is a Michigan alum. (Typically I would warn against taking any NIL figures at face value, but in this case the number has been widely reported, including in the university’s own Journal of Economics.) At 6-4, 228 pounds, Underwood instantly sets off the freak siren, inspiring comparisons to Vince freakin’ Young and Cam freakin’ Newton before he’s faced a serious opponent. In his first game, he was a perfectly cromulent 21-for-31 passing for 251 yards, 1 touchdown and no turnovers in a 34-17 win over New Mexico, operating a conservative game plan that didn’t call for him to log a single carry as a runner.

The 6-1, 224-pound Mateer comes from the opposite end of the hype spectrum. His last school, Washington State, was 1 of only 2 FBS teams to offer him a scholarship out of high school, along with New Mexico State. At Wazzu, he backed up future No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward for 2 years before piloting the Cougars’ offense to 36.6 points per game in 2024 in his first turn as a starter. A dual threat, he was the only FBS quarterback last year to eclipse 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing (excluding sacks), and his 44 total touchdowns led the nation. With numbers like that, dwelling on his marginal measurables or the mostly marginal competition he faced in Pullman was a luxury a team as desperate for an upgrade behind center as Oklahoma could not afford.

Setting aside the competition, Mateer’s debut as a Sooner against Illinois State was all the locals could have asked for: 30-for-37 passing, 389 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus a 4th TD rushing. Based on his ’24 output at Washington State, that’s about par for the course against a bantamweight opponent. Michigan will not be the first power-conference defense he’s faced — at his last stop he led a pair of upset wins over Texas Tech and Washington — but it will be the best by some distance.

The key matchup: Oklahoma WRs Deion Burks/Keontez Lewis vs. Michigan CBs Jyaire Hill/Zeke Berry

Oklahoma’s wide receivers were a sore point in 2024, literally: At various points the entire preseason 2-deep was sidelined by injury, including the headliner, Burks, a Purdue transfer who led the wideouts in receptions (31), yards (245) and touchdowns (3) despite missing 7 games to assorted ailments. The inevitable offseason transfer haul added 5 new targets to the rotation, including Lewis, a 5th-year journeyman with previous stops at UCLA, Wisconsin, and Southern Illinois. Between them, Burks and Lewis played nearly every snap on the outside in Week 1, hauling in a combined 16 catches for 207 yards and all 3 of Mateer’s touchdowns.

Their opposite numbers in Michigan’s secondary, Hill and Berry, are in their second season as starters after earning good reviews last year in their first significant action. For what it’s worth, Hill in particular was a popular name on the “way too early” mock-draft circuit over the offseason, despite being just a redshirt sophomore with 2 years of eligibility remaining after this one. That kind of attention comes with the territory when you’re a returning starter at a premium position at a high-profile school. (At least when you’re listed at 6-2.) Saturday is his chance to begin turning the buzz into reality.

The verdict:

Don’t expect fireworks. The quarterbacks might be the most interesting thing about this matchup, by virtue of sheer wild-card intrigue, but these are still defensively-driven programs perfectly content to take any opportunity to slug it out. As a rule, a barely-18-year-old true freshman QB making his first road start opposite a Brent Venables defense is a doomed proposition, even when the QB in question is the second coming of (insert legend). Also as a rule, Michigan’s defense is one of the most bankable in the sport, even when replacing a pair of first-round picks on the interior d-line. It’s possible that Mateer and/or Underwood is about to break out in a big way on a national stage. More likely, it’s going to come down to who makes the routine plays, avoids the killer mistake, and hits the one or two clutch throws that move the needle when the game is on the line.

Prediction: Oklahoma 20 | • Michigan 16

South Florida at Florida (-17.5)

If you caught USF’s opener, a thorough, 34-7 thumping of G5 standard-bearer Boise State, you had to be impressed: This belonged to the category of upset where the ostensible underdog was visibly bigger, stronger, faster and more inspired. After falling behind 7-0, the Bulls ripped off 34 unanswered points, at one point scoring 3 rapid-fire touchdowns in a span of 10 minutes in the second half. Dual-threat QB Byrum Brown, coming off a season-ending injury in 2024, looked like a breakout star in the making, and that’s taking into account the fact his most impressive play was wiped out by a penalty.

All of which is to say, the Gators can’t afford to take this one for granted. USF’s roster includes 20 players with Power 5 experience, including a couple of all-conference-caliber starters, WR Chas Nimrod and DB De’Shawn Rucker, who followed head coach Alex Golesh from his previous stop as offensive coordinator at Tennessee. That should not be nearly enough to hold up for 60 minutes in The Swamp — USF’s roster ranks 61st according to 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite; Florida’s ranks 12th — but as an audition for the automatic G5 spot in the Playoff, the Bulls have a chance to make another strong impression even in defeat.

Prediction: Florida 34 | • South Florida 19

Ole Miss (-8.5) at Kentucky

Ole Miss was haunted by last year’s 20-17 loss to Kentucky in Oxford, a flop that ultimately cost the Rebels a spot in the Playoff. The Wildcats won that game the way they’ve won most games under Mark Stoops: By torturing the clock into submission. Moving with all the urgency of a horde of zombies on offense, the ‘Cats racked up a nearly two-to-one advantage in time of possession; on defense, they held Ole Miss to 1-for-10 on 3rd down and banked the game’s only turnover. Ole Miss’ 56 offensive snaps tied for the fewest in Lane Kiffin‘s tenure – and the Rebels still had a chance to send the game to overtime on a late field goal that sailed wide. 

Both lineups are very different this time around. But all of Kentucky’s offseason moves pointed toward a team as hellbent as ever on running the dang ball, and the opener, a 24-16 slugfest against Toledo, confirmed it: Transfer RBs Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan ground out 207 yards on 32 carries, while 7th-year journeyman QB Zach Calzada struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. (Calzada was a dismal 1-for-11 on attempts of 10+ air yards — the lone completion going for a gain of 11 — with 72 of the Wildcats’ 85 receiving yards coming after the catch.) It’s no secret that they want to grind the proceedings to a crawl. The only question is whether they can execute it two years in a row.

Prediction: • Ole Miss 26 | Kentucky 14

Arizona State (-6.5) at Mississippi State

Little did anyone realize at the time that Arizona State’s 30-23 win over Mississippi State a year ago was the first step in the Sun Devils’ improbable run to the Playoff. Then-unknown Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was a non-factor in that game, finishing a pedestrian 10-of-20 passing for 69 yards in just his second career start. (Although Leavitt did score both of ASU’s offensive touchdowns as a runner.) Instead, the Devils leaned heavily on indestructible running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 297 scrimmage yards on 36 touches in an early entry on his All-American résumé.

For the rematch, a fully established Leavitt is earning Heisman buzz while Skattebo is competing for carries with the New York Giants. In Week 1, Leavitt accounted for 330 total yards and 4 touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing) in a 38-19 win over Northern Arizona. His top receiver, Jordyn Tyson, was on the receiving end for 141 yards and both touchdowns through the air. The setting this time around is more favorable to the Bulldogs, assuming Leavitt has never played in front of a chorus of cowbells; otherwise, they’re just trading one cause of death for another.

Prediction: • Arizona State 32 | Miss. State 23

Kansas at Missouri (-6.5)

This is the long-overdue resumption of one of the oldest and most underrated rivalries in the country: Missouri’s defection from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012 ended a streak of 120 meetings between the schools over the previous 121 years, the only exception coming in 1918 due to World War I. (If you really want to take it back, you could argue the “Border War” is merely a thinly veiled extension of the literal border war between the two states that presaged the Civil War. In this essay, I will …) When it ended, Mizzou had taken 5 of the past 6 to pull ahead in the all-time series, although — as with any longstanding rivalry worth its salt — the schools disagree over the exact record.

As for the 2025 edition, Kansas is an interesting team. Based strictly on the standings, the Jayhawks flopped in 2024, following up a 9-4 finish in ’23 with a regression to 5-7. The difference on the field wasn’t nearly that obvious: Five of those seven losses were by a touchdown or less, and KU salvaged some dignity with a 3-game November winning streak over ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado). When healthy, 6th-year quarterback Jalon Daniels is an established playmaker with 35 career starts under his belt. The Jayhawks are not good, necessarily, but on any given Saturday they are the kind of team that is liable to ruin somebody’s season. The Tigers, a team with darkhorse CFP ambitions, should be on guard that it’s not theirs.

Prediction: • Missouri 36 | Kansas 27

Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-2.5)

Vandy’s overtime win over the Hokies last year in Nashville was the first sign that the ‘Dores were on to something with QB Diego Pavia. Pavia accounted for 294 total yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, including a game-tying TD pass at the end of regulation and what turned out to be the game-winning scramble in the extra session. Virginia Tech put up an respectable fight on defense in its opening-day loss to South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to 10 points before allowing alien-grade WR Nyck Harbor to get behind them for a game-icing, 64-yard touchdown in the 4thquarter. But there is only one Nyck Harbor, and he doesn’t play for Vandy.

Prediction: • Virginia Tech 24 | Vanderbilt 20

UL-Monroe at Alabama (-34.5)

Any time ULM rolls into Tuscaloosa is an opportunity to reminisce about the Warhawks’ 2007 upset in Tuscaloosa, which for many years served as a kind of origin story for the Saban Death Star as well as the answer to the trivia question, “when was the last time Alabama lost to an unranked team?” Now that the Tide have lost 4 times to unranked teams in their past 10 games, it’s just another rapidly receding footnote from the era just before the gap between the sport’s Haves and Have Nots turned into a chasm. For Kalen DeBoer‘s sake, it had better keep on receding.

Prediction: • Alabama 49 | UL-Monroe 10

San José State at Texas (-36.5)

Texas has 3 weeks to reset Arch Manning‘s confidence to factory settings before its next big road test at Florida. A big part of that process will be getting in sync with his wideouts, who were MIA as a group in last week’s loss at Ohio State. Starters Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore and Parker Livingstone took virtually every WR rep in Columbus, but barely touched the ball until the Longhorns shifted into desperation mode. Altogether, that trio combined for 6 receptions (4 of them in the 4th quarter) on 16 targets, while the majority of Manning’s 17 completions were checkdowns to running backs and tight end Jack Endries.

True, Manning’s scattershot accuracy did his receivers no favors on the rare occasions they found a sliver of daylight against OSU’s secondary. But that goes both ways: Their inability to create separation made his job harder, too. Livingstone, the most unsung of the starters, made the play of the day on a 32-yard touchdown catch that finally got Texas on the board after more than 56 minutes. A few plays earlier, Wingo, the most-targeted of the bunch, finally came down with one on a 28-yard strike down the hashmarks to get the drive going. Otherwise, they might as well not have bothered showing up. 

So while the ‘Horns can no doubt pound the ball at will against San José State – last seen giving up 236 yards rushing in a 16-14 loss to Central Michigan – establishing some chemistry between blue-chip QB and blue-chip targets must be a priority. This is why you schedule the likes of SJSU, UTEP, and Sam Houston in the first place: To get everyone on the same page by the time the buses roll into the Swamp.

Prediction: Texas 41 | • San José State 7

Utah State at Texas A&M (-31.5)

Despite the final score, A&M came away from its 42-24 win over UT-San Antonio with some concerns. Chief among them: Stopping the run. UTSA’s Robert Henry Jr. made the Aggies’ front seven look like a nondescript outfit from the American Athletic Conference, gashing the Aggies for 177 yards on an alarming 11.1 per carry. Henry’s highlight reel included a 75-yard touchdown straight up the gut on the first play of the second half; a 15-yard TD run earlier in the game on which he cut against the grain and outraced the pursuit to the pylon; and 2 other carries that gained 20+ yards. Utah State’s top back, BYU transfer Miles Davis, is coming off a career-high 149 yards from scrimmage in a Week 1 win over UTEP. The last thing A&M needs ahead of a Week 3 trip to Notre Dame is another overachieving G5 back putting its defense in the blender.

Prediction: • Texas A&M 48 | Utah State 13

Louisiana Tech at LSU (-37.5)

LSU has won 35 straight vs. in-state opponents dating to a November 1982 loss to Tulane. Among the few competitive entries in that streak, you’ll find a 2009 date against Louisiana Tech in which the Bulldogs led 13-10 at halftime before ultimately falling short, 24-16. “Remember when we led at halftime” isn’t much of a rallying cry, but at this point it’s all the rest of the state has got.

Prediction: • LSU 44 | Louisiana Tech 6

Arkansas State at Arkansas (-22.5)

The Hogs are in little danger here against Butch Jones‘ group, but still should not sleep on Arkansas State’s pass-catch combo of Jaylen Raynor and Corey Rucker, the active FBS leader in career receptions (183), receiving yards (3,148) and receiving touchdowns (25). Raynor and Rucker only hooked up twice in the Red Wolves’ Week 1 win over Southeast Missouri State, but one of those connections went for 50 yards and the other was an acrobatic touchdown in the back corner of the end zone. If Arkansas’ offense needs a minute or two to get revved up, that duo is capable of causing some unpleasantness in the meantime.

Prediction: • Arkansas 42 | Arkansas State 17

Ball State at Auburn (-42.5)

Vibes are good at Auburn coming off a reassuring, 38-24 win at Baylor. But the glowing reviews for QB Jackson Arnold and the offense have tended to gloss over the defense giving up an FBS-worst 419 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. Ball State is not going to come close to that number: The Cardinals managed just 87 passing yards on 16 attempts in Week 1 in a shutout loss at Purdue. But if an attack that looked that anemic against a Big Ten doormat does anything positive at all, the red flag remains up.

Prediction: Auburn 45 | • Ball State 7

Austin Peay at Georgia (n/a)

Point spreads are off for this week’s FCS tilts, eliminating the only reason anyone other than close blood relatives of the players has to tune in. Shoot, even some of the families probably need a little action to stay awake. If you can’t sweat out a nine-minute drive in garbage time featuring Austin Peay’s backup offense threatening to pull off a backdoor cover against Georgia’s fifth-string defense, what’s even the point?

Prediction: Georgia 52 | Austin Peay 0

East Tennessee State at Tennessee (n/a)

How concerned is Tennessee about its ailing cornerbacks? The headliner of the group, Jermod McCoy, has returned to practice coming off offseason rehab for a torn ACL, but remains TBD for live action. Meanwhile, the other returning starter on the outside, Rickey Gibson III, is on the shelf for “an extended period” after suffering an undisclosed injury in the first half of the Vols’ Week 1 win over Syracuse. In the starters’ absence, though, their understudies held up fine. Junior Colton Hood, a Colorado transfer who earned the start against ‘Cuse in place of McCoy, was the SEC co-Defensive Player of the Week after breaking up three passes and returning a fumble for a touchdown; and true freshman Ty Redmond was Tennessee’s highest-graded defender per PFF after filling in for Gibson. Against ETSU, it’s neither here nor there. Against Georgia in Week 3, McCoy’s status is going to loom large.

Prediction: Tennessee 59 | ETSU 3

South Carolina State at South Carolina (n/a)

South Carolina State is a respectable FCS outfit. Defending champs of the MEAC. But for some perspective on the sheer size of the talent gap in these matchups, consider that the Bulldogs’ top defensive tackle is listed at an improbable 5-9, 225 pounds – 6 inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter than South Carolina’s quarterback.

Prediction: South Carolina 56 | South Carolina State 3

Scoreboard

Week 1 Record: 13-3 straight-up | 7-9 vs. spread