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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with SMU. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | NC State | North Carolina | Pitt
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In at least one sense, SMU has something in common with Florida State.
They both enter the new season as reigning conference champions.
But that’s where the similarities end. Because while the Seminoles are so eager to get out of the ACC that they’ve filed a lawsuit challenging its grant of rights, the Mustangs are so excited about becoming part of the league that they’ve agreed to waive their share of media revenue for the next 9 years.
“It means a lot to our program. It means a whole lot to our school,” coach Rhett Lashlee said at the ACC’s preseason Football Kickoff event in Charlotte last month, SMU’s first official function as a member of the conference. “We’re humbled and grateful for the opportunity. We’re going to gain a lot from being in this conference and I think we’re going to add a lot of value to the conference, as well.”
Lashlee’s Mustangs are by far the most accomplished of the ACC’s 3 new members. They’re coming off a 2023 season in which they won 11 games and a championship trophy in their final season in the American Athletic Conference.
But even though they return most of their key players, including quarterback Preston Stone, top receiver Jake Bailey, a veteran offensive line and sacks leader Elijah Roberts, and added several key transfers, there are questions about how they’ll adjust to the higher level of competition.
Especially after going 0-3 against power conference opponents last year. SMU is heading into such uncharted territory that not even Lashlee is sure what to expect.
“We’ve played on that stage and been competitive,” said the 3rd-year coach who has previous ACC experience as an offensive coordinator at Miami. “The jump is going to be the week-in, week-out level of competition. We have 10 straight power league games. And everybody’s good.
“How do we handle the grind? Does our depth hold up? Are we able to stay healthy, specifically depth in the trenches? And then are we able to win those close games, because odds are at least 6 or our 8 conference games are going to be 1-score games.”
Those questions are central to determining how smoothly SMU’s transition into the ACC will be.
So let’s try to find some answers.
Deepening the trenches
Lashlee was up early on the morning before the Mustangs’ 2023 season-opener against Louisiana Tech when he got the call and heard the news that SMU had been formally accepted into the ACC.
Even though he still had 1 final season to coach in the AAC, Lashlee and his staff didn’t wait to start preparing for the transition.
“I found out on Sept. 1 at 6:43 a.m. Central Time that we were in the league, that was cool,” he said. “Then we started working hard to start recruiting for this league, even though we weren’t officially in until July 1.”
The primary focus of that upgraded recruiting effort was adding to the depth on the offensive and defensive lines to be better prepared for the physicality and grind of playing 10 straight games against power conference competition. Lashlee accomplished that by using the transfer portal to deepen the trenches on both sides.
Of SMU’s 21 incoming veteran free agents, 13 play on the offensive or defensive lines.
The list of offensive additions includes versatile Savion Byrd, who played tackle at Oklahoma but is penciled in at guard for the Mustangs, Byrd’s former Sooners teammate Nate Anderson, Paris Patterson and Andrew Chamblee from Arkansas and Qae’Shon Sapp from East Carolina.
The incoming defensive transfers are tackles Jonathan Jefferson from Georgia, Jared Harrison-Hunter from Miami, Blake Burris from Texas Tech, Anthony Booker Jr. from Arkansas, Mike Lockhart from West Virginia and edge rushers Billy Walton III from Texas, Omari Abor from Ohio State and Jahfari Harvey from Miami.
A challenge for a challenging opener
The ACC didn’t do SMU any favors with the 2024 schedule. The Mustangs’ first 2 conference games are at home against defending champion Florida State, followed by a trip to 2023 runner-up Louisville.
“The league has a good sense of humor,” Lashlee said.
As it turns out, so does Lashlee. Looking to find whatever edge he can get as his team moves “up in weight class” in the college football world, Lashlee issued a challenge to his friend Mike Norvell of FSU while both were in Charlotte for the ACC Kickoff.
“I challenged Mike Norvell to a game of College Football (’25),” Lashlee said of the wildly popular EA Sports video game. “I don’t know if he’s going to do it. But that would be great TV, right? Maybe that decides who wins the toss or something on Sept. 28. You’re on the spot, Mike.”
Lashlee later doubled down on his challenge by repeating it on social media. All kidding aside, the rival coaches are the best of friends. They’ve known each other since 2007 and faced each other as rivals during Lashlee’s tenure as offensive coordinator at Miami.
“We go way back and have competed against each other before,” Lashlee said. “I have incredible respect for how he runs a program and what he’s built at Florida State. They’re the standard of our conference right now. We’ll learn real quickly where we stand.”
If the ratings on College Football ’25 are an indication, Lashlee and his Mustangs are in for a long day. FSU has an overall 90 rating on the video game. SMU is only rated at 85.
A sneak preview and a scouting report
SMU won’t play its first official ACC game until that Sept. 28 date against FSU. But it’s already gotten an early taste of what life in the ACC will be like. The Mustangs’ final game before joining the league came at the Fenway Bowl last December against future ACC rival Boston College.
“That’s who we’re playing, so we’ve already got a little of it,” tight end RJ Maryland said. “I can’t wait until they come to SMU. It’s a different level and we’re going to have to have more consistency because you’re playing that big game, that power game, every single week. You can’t have those tiny hiccups you can get away with in the American.”
BC won that sneak preview 23-14 in a driving rainstorm. But SMU will get a chance at revenge when the Eagles come to Dallas on Nov. 16.
To get a better idea of what to expect from the transition to the ACC, Lashlee reached out for advice from several of his coaching colleagues whose teams recently made similar upgrades from the Group of 5 conferences.
“I talked to Gus (Malzahn) at Central Florida a lot because they just made the jump (to the Big 12) last year and we’re very close,” he said. “I talked to Kyle Wittingham and Gary Patterson because those guys did it at a high level. And I even talked to Neal Brown (of West Virginia) to get a different perspective, because he had played some of the teams that came in. I tried to learn from people who have done it well before.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 0: at Nevada (W)
As Wolf Packs go, SMU drew the much easier assignment than the one it could have faced had NC State been on its schedule. Even on the road against an opponent starting over with a new coaching staff, this is a good way for the Mustangs to kick off a new era.
Week 1: vs. Houston Christian (W)
The Huskies will get a nice check. The Mustangs will get an opportunity to run up the score on an overmatched opponent before they begin a gauntlet of 10 consecutive power conference games.
Week 2: vs. BYU (W)
SMU is 0-4 all-time against the Cougars. But they’re getting closer. Their last meeting was a 1-point decision in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl. And BYU has taken a step back since joining the Big 12. There’s a first time for everything. And this is that time for the Mustangs.
Week 3: Open
Week 4: vs. TCU (W)
Cross-town rivalries are always a wild card. And last year’s battle for the Iron Skillet is the perfect example. The Mustangs won 11 games and their conference championship, The Horned Frogs finished 5-7 and out of the postseason. But TCU dominated the head-to-head matchup, winning 34-17. This year’s game is at SMU. Fire up the skillet.
Week 5: vs. Florida State (L)
Welcome to the ACC, Mustangs.
Week 6: at Louisville (L)
As Lashlee noted, someone in the ACC office has a sense of humor. SMU’s first 2 ACC games are against the teams that played for last year’s league championship.
Week 7: Open
Week 8: at Stanford (W)
After the Seminoles and Cardinals, the Mustangs deserve a soft touch. And they don’t get any softer in the ACC than Stanford.
Week 9: at Duke (L)
Having played at Texas, Maalik Murphy should be well acquainted with SMU. He won’t have a chance to put some hurt on his former team, so this will be his chance to deal out some punishment on a team from the Lone Star State.
Week 10: vs. Pitt (W)
The Panthers are a better team than the one that went 3-9 last season. But they haven’t improved enough, especially on defense, to beat a team as good as SMU on the road.
Week 11: Open
Week 12: vs. Boston College (W)
The Eagles beat the Mustangs in the Fenway Bowl last December. This one is on SMU’s home turf. Turnabout is fair play.
Week 13: at Virginia (L)
The Cavaliers are playing to save their coach’s job. The Mustangs are starting to get worn down by 10 straight games against power conference competition. And they’re on the road. That’s a recipe for an upset.
Week 14: vs. Cal (W)
The Mustangs won’t be playing for a conference title this year. But they will be going bowling. And they can be proud of their ACC debut.
2024 projection: 8-3 (5-3)
#PonyUpDallas
The Mustangs return 62% of their total production from last season, including most of the key elements on offense. Leading receiver Jake Bailey and leading rusher Jaylan Knighton are back.
So are All-AAC offensive linemen Logan Parr and Justin Osborne as well as 2 quarterbacks – Preston Stone, who threw 28 touchdown passes getting them to the conference championship game and Kevin Jennings, who stepped in after Stone was injured to win the league title – who combined to help SMU rank 8th in the nation in scoring.
Defensively, top tacklers Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker return, as does sacks leader Elijah Roberts.
Combined with some high-profile transfer additions, SMU has enough front-line talent to be a surprise contender for a spot in the ACC Championship Game in its debut year in the conference. The question is whether Lashlee has enough horses at his disposal to go deeper than the top 2 on his depth chart once the grind of a long season begins to take its toll.
We won’t know the answer until late October or early November.
No matter how things turn out, the Mustangs will have reason to be upbeat.
They’ve found a new home. And they’re excited to be here.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
