Soaring Alabama, fading… Penn State? Takeaways from Bud Elliott’s 2025 Blue Chip Ratio

Last year’s Alabama–Vanderbilt game was the ultimate canary in the coal mine. 

The Crimson Tide lost to the Commodores 40-35 in Nashville on Oct. 5 in a moment that shocked the sport. Vanderbilt?! Alabama?? The Crimson Tide, ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll heading into the game, had beaten the ‘Dores for 4 decades without a loss. Vandy had lost all 60 games it had previously played against AP top-5 teams.

But talent in the sport is smoothing out — to a certain extent. And defenses are starting to find answers to offensive problems that have ravaged them for years. The result? Weird results. Alabama wasn’t the only big brand to fall last year. Notre Dame lost to NIU. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. Tennessee lost to Arkansas.

And yet none of those losses ultimately meant much. Alabama was still in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff at the end of the regular season. If the Tide hadn’t shotgunned their left leg off in Norman, they would have been in the 12-team field even with the loss to a Vandy team that finished 6-6. I’m not convinced the inverse applies.

Ole Miss was in contention for a CFP spot as well. Notre Dame and Tennessee both made the CFP despite losing to teams that finished at or below .500 in their respective conferences.

College football’s regular season is the greatest gauntlet in sports. The scarcity of games combined with the intensity of the environments makes the product unmatched. The expanded Playoff didn’t water down the regular season, but it did make it less consequential. 

One truth still remains, though: the best find a way. 

CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott summed up the state of the sport perfectly: “The difference between making the playoff and winning it is enormous.”

Last week, Elliott released his annual look at college football’s “Blue Chip Ratio” — the list of teams across the sport that have recruited more 4- and 5-star prospects than 2- and 3-star prospects over the previous 4 recruiting cycles.

Every national champion since 2011, Elliott has found, has had at least a 50% ratio of blue-chippers to non-blue-chippers. When Alabama won the national title in 2020, it had an 83% BCR. Georgia had an 80% and then a 77% BCR during its back-to-back title campaigns. Last year, Ohio State was sitting at an absurd 90%. 

In this sport, coaching matters. So does health, turnover luck, schedule luck, and retention. But every coach says the same thing; at the end of the day, it’s less about the Xs and Os and more about the Jimmies and Joes. 

Thirteen teams have a BCR above 60% this season, according to Elliott. Five more are above 50%. 

You can find all 18 teams, read about Elliott’s methodology, and read about how transfers factor into the equation here. Below, I want to focus on a handful of teams that stood out. 

Alabama — 89% Blue Chip Ratio, tied for 1st

I am all in on the Crimson Tide in 2025. Year 2 under Kalen DeBoer was when the magic happened for Washington, and though the ingredients in the potion are a little different in Tuscaloosa, the result could wind up being the same. Alabama has a go-to wide receiver who could become an elite player in his sophomore season. It has a defense overflowing with blue-chip talent that has been around the college scene plenty long enough. It has an offensive line anchored by some of the best positional blockers in the SEC. And it has a coaching staff that knows how to win football games. 

I included Alabama among my best bets to hit 10 wins in 2025, postulating that if the Kalen DeBoer/Ryan Grubb offense looks anything close to how it did at Washington, the Tide will be a near lock to reach double-digit wins. The question rests at quarterback, but as the summer has gone on and I’ve studied Ty Simpson more, the more comfortable I’ve felt. 

In April, I wrote that Alabama was the largest change agent in the futures market, capable of winning a national title if the quarterback decision hits but susceptible to serious disappointment if DeBoer goes through another year without a guy capable of doing what he needs. 

On Saturday, I put pen to paper (keyboard to computer?) and officially backed Alabama as my pick to win the SEC. 

Seeing the Crimson Tide top all other programs in Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio isn’t a sign to go and bet the house on Alabama to win the national title in 2025, but it is yet another data point supporting a turnaround for DeBoer in 2025. 

Alabama was nearly 2 games below its expected win total last season — a traditional marker of improvement. Alabama ranks 29th in returning production, according to Bill Connelly, a mark that doesn’t provide any reason for concern. And even though Alabama technically changed coordinators, continuity should still be a strength given Grubb’s experience working with DeBoer and some of the other members of this staff. 

One season of underperformance shouldn’t undo what we think we know about DeBoer as a head coach. Prior to last year, DeBoer was 37-9 as an FBS head coach, 67-3 as an NAIA head coach, and 18-3 in Playoff games (both CFP and NAIA). 

DeBoer has been a winner at every stop. And the offense-leaning coach won 9 games in his first season replacing Nick Saban despite having the worst offense Alabama has fielded since 2015. That’s not a subjective assessment either. The Tide ranked 32nd in Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA-per-play metric last season. They’d been top-30 in each of the previous 8 seasons. 

A perennial winner with the most talented roster in the sport? The Tide are +1200 at BetMGM to win the national championship. Six teams have shorter odds. Just something to consider.

Texas A&M — 82% Blue Chip Ratio, 4th

Texas A&M is a fascinating team heading into Year 2 under Mike Elko. The Aggies are still loaded with talent, evidenced by Elliott’s BCR, but it feels like the expectations have been lowered because of the coaching change. 

Because he was Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M was expected to be a significant player on the national scene regardless of the context. Because Elko isn’t Fisher, it seems like the Aggies have dropped down a tier even though the talent has largely remained in College Station. 

Five teams have shorter SEC Championship odds at BetMGM. Michigan and Florida are viewed as more likely national champions. The Aggies are +240 to just make the CFP at BetMGM, which implies less than a 30% likelihood.

According to Bill Connelly’s calculations, the Aggies are seventh nationally in returning production. The offense returns quarterback Marcel Reed back and a backfield duo of Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens. The portal brought some significant help at receiver, as well.  

A&M ranked 36th nationally last season in opponent-adjusted EPA per play on defense, per Game on Paper. The pass defense dropped off late in the year, and A&M has to replace major contributors at the line of scrimmage but fixing the defense was Elko’s top priority this offseason.

There are big names on that side of the ball, but if A&M continues to underperform what Elko wants from that unit, the last 2 recruiting classes have supplemented the 2-deep with promising youngsters who can be turned loose. Elko has built his coaching career off winning with speed and skill against size. If the big boys still aren’t getting it done, he has options.  

Even with Reed still in developmental mode as a passer, the Aggies actually project as a team with fewer questions on offense than defense in 2025. Given Elko’s pedigree, that’s probably the more comforting side of the coin for this team to land on. 

A&M was among my value bets to make the CFP last month. Seeing the Aggies’ talent level relative to their peers laid out so plainly like this makes me feel better about that pick. 

Penn State — 68% Blue Chip Ratio, 10th

At 68%, Penn State certainly qualifies as a national championship contender when judged historically. That BCR is higher than what Michigan had when the Wolverines won it all in 2023, and it’s also higher than LSU in 2019, Clemson in 2018, Clemson in 2016, and Florida State in 2013. 

(So, essentially, all the non-SEC title winners.) 

It is, however, interesting that Oklahoma’s roster has more blue-chip talent than Penn State’s. The Nittany Lions (+700) have the third-shortest odds at BetMGM to win next year’s national title. Oklahoma is +5000. 

If you’re backing Penn State in 2025, you’re betting on continuity. The heartbeat of the team, quarterback Drew Allar, returns for his third year as a starter. Tailbacks Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen both return. Four of 5 starters on the offensive line return. The receiver room was overhauled via the transfer portal. Eight of the 17 defenders with at least 300 snaps last season are back, including star end Dani Dennis-Sutton. 

The schedule is weak. Nonconference games for Penn State in 2025 include Nevada, FIU, and Villanova. They won’t play Michigan, USC, or Illinois. They get Oregon at home. 

By most accounts, Penn State is a lock to make the Playoff in 2025. The Nittany Lions were the preseason pick to win the Big Ten in the media poll conducted by cleveland.com this week.

There isn’t much value in betting on Penn State to make the CFP. At +195, there probably isn’t even enough juice on betting on Penn State to miss the CFP. 

But can Penn State win a national championship? That’s the goal for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions in 2025, and this annual BCR exercise exposes the biggest risk associated with backing PSU as a contender. 

Even with what’s returning, they aren’t the most talented team in the country. Even with all the good Franklin has done on the recruiting trail, Penn State isn’t close to being the most talented team in the country. It isn’t even close to the No. 2 team in its own conference. 

And you can’t trust Franklin in spots where he doesn’t have a talent advantage. 

Since Penn State won the Big Ten in 2016, the Nittany Lions are 74-12 straight up in games where they play as the favorite. Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 27-0 in games where it is favored by at least 6 points (per Bill Connelly). 

But, since the start of the 2017 season, Penn State is 2-15 as an underdog. 

Nebraska has a better win percentage as an underdog during that same span. 

Penn State wins the games it should win and loses the games it should lose. In a Playoff where you have to win multiple times against elite teams, can Franklin kick that trend? The answer last season was no. Wins against SMU and Boise State didn’t change the narrative. The loss to Notre Dame reinforced it, though. 

Clemson — 55% Blue Chip Ratio, 16th

Clemson is the favorite to win the ACC in 2025, and rightfully so. The Tigers return one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Cade Klubnik. According to Connelly’s calculations, no FBS team returns more overall production than Clemson. They poached Tom Allen to coordinate the defense, a group that slipped in 2024, and held on to all the major pieces that Garrett Riley needs to produce a top-flight offense in 2025. 

But ESPN’s Kevin Clark recently made a point I found interesting. 

“I actually think LSU wins Week 1,” Clark said on ESPN’s Get Up earlier this month. “With Klubnik, it all comes down to whether he can reach the heights of Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. The reason I say that is because they haven’t recruited at the level they did a decade ago. You look at those rosters when they won national championships, there were NFL bodies at every single part of the field. Now, it’s more of a top-heavy thing. They’re not on the trail like they used to, getting as many 5-stars as they did a decade ago.

“It comes down to whether Cade Klubnik is going to be able to elevate that roster to the big boys, to LSU, to a team they play in the CFP.”

Clemson was a distant fifth in the 247Sports Talent Composite last season. (The Composite goes hand-in-hand with Elliott’s BCR, as both are built off the 247Sports Composite in recruiting.) The Tigers were fifth in 2023, with a massive gap between them and the top 3 once again. They were fifth in 2022, fourth in 2021 and 2020, and ninth in 2019. 

But they were sixth when they won the title in 2018 and ninth when they won it in 2016. Alabama was top-2 both years. 

So, while it’s true Clemson hasn’t exactly closed the gap with the Alabamas and Ohio States of the sport in terms of hoarding blue-chip recruits, it’s also true that said gap hasn’t really widened either.

Part of the reason behind Clemson’s dip in the post-Trevor Lawrence era wasn’t that it stopped landing 5-star players, but rather that those 5-star players didn’t pan out. Bryan Bresee was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 cycle. He had 9 sacks and 15 tackles for loss in 3 years with the Tigers before turning pro. TJ Parker, a former 4-star recruit and returning star, had 11 sacks just last year. 

And then there was DJ Uiagalelei. We can leave that at that. 

The Tigers signed a 5-star tackle in the 2021 class who will anchor the left side of the line in 2025. They signed a 5-star quarterback in the 2022 class who will lead the team. And they signed a 5-star receiver in the 2024 class who might catch a ton of passes in 2025. Barring catastrophe, Clemson, like Penn State, is probably making it into the Playoff in 2025. But are the Tigers the national title contender that Alabama is? At BetMGM, Clemson (+900) has shorter odds. 

How much do you trust Klubnik?