South Carolina and LSU will meet under the lights in Death Valley on Saturday night.
This is a big game for both programs. LSU needs a win if it hopes to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race. Meanwhile, South Carolina will be looking for revenge after narrowly losing to the Tigers in Columbia last year. South Carolina’s bowl hopes this year are also very much up-in-the-air, but getting a win over the Tigers on Saturday would go a long way toward securing a place in the postseason.
South Carolina vs. LSU odds
Here’s what the latest college football odds look like for this game:
Here’s what you need to know about both teams:
South Carolina football info
- South Carolina is coming off of an idle week. Last time out in Week 5, the Gamecocks picked up their first SEC win of the season against Kentucky.
- It’s been a really tough season for the South Carolina offense, but LaNorris Sellers may be turning a corner. He’s averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt in back-to-back games against Missouri and Kentucky.
- South Carolina’s running backs have been very disappointing. Both Rahsul Faison and Oscar Adaway have been very inefficient. They’re both under 35% success rate for the season, per Game on Paper.
- South Carolina has zero games this season where it has averaged at least 6 yards per play. It is the only SEC team without at least 1 game above 6 yards per play this season.
- South Carolina is 40th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper.
- The Gamecocks rank 29th nationally in pass defense efficiency rating. They held both Diego Pavia and Beau Pribula under 7 yards per attempt — far below their season averages.
LSU football info
- LSU is coming off of a bye week. Most recently, the Tigers lost a close game to Ole Miss on the road back in Week 5.
- Brian Kelly previously revealed that Garrett Nussmeier had been dealing with a torso injury and wouldn’t be able to heal until the bye week. It will be interesting to see if LSU is able to be more aggressive in the passing game with Nussmeier now presumably a bit healthier.
- Per PFF, Nussmeier’s average depth of target is just 7.6 yards. That’s down from 9.5 last season. It also ranks 13th out of 16 SEC quarterbacks (min. 100 drop-backs).
- Caden Durham has also regressed this season. He’s averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and has a rushing success rate of only 33%, per Game on Paper. Durham hasn’t played since Week 4 due to an injury, but he’s expected to be active on Saturday.
- LSU’s defense has continued to trend in a positive direction under Blake Baker. The Tigers are 13th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper.
- LSU’s highest-graded defensive players so far this season are cornerback Mansoor Delane, safety AJ Haulcy and cornerback PJ Woodland, per Pro Football Focus.
- Although the defense as a whole is solid, LSU’s pass rush has been somewhat mediocre. The Tigers rank 8th in the SEC in sacks and 10th in tackles for loss. So far this season, there have been 31 players in the SEC to register at least 10 pressures. LSU has just 1 player in that group — outside linebacker Whit Weeks with 10.
RELATED: Calling all Louisiana natives: Looking to place a bet on LSU this weekend? Here’s SDS’s full recap of all the best LA betting apps you can choose from!
South Carolina vs. LSU picks
Something has flipped with how LaNorris Sellers is handling pressure. Over the past 2 weeks, Sellers is 10-of-18 with an average depth of target over 15 yards when faced with pressure. That represents a meaningful improvement over his numbers from the first 3 games of the season (3-of-9 with an ADOT of 8.6 yards, per PFF). That’s a huge reason for Sellers’ boost in passing numbers over the past couple of weeks. He’s also taking sacks at a much lower rate. I think South Carolina will be able to move the ball in some spots against LSU. The Gamecocks also have a penchant for creating special teams and defensive touchdowns (they have 6 already this season, which leads the nation), so I feel good about their team total over in this spot.
Pick: South Carolina team total over 16.5 (-125 on Fanatics)
I’m going back to the well for this one — LSU to punt on its first drive. We were on this a couple of weeks ago and it hit. Joe Sloan has coached LSU in 10 SEC games since taking over as OC. The Tigers have punted on their opening drive in 7 of them. South Carolina’s defense is solid, particularly against the pass, so I think there’s a better than average chance we see the Tigers punt on their opening possession.
Pick: LSU first drive result — punt (+117 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
