South Carolina will make the trip to Mizzou on Saturday for another edition of the Mayor’s Cup between the Gamecocks and Tigers.
South Carolina is coming off of a disappointing performance in a 31-7 home loss to Vanderbilt last week. Mizzou, meanwhile, is 3-0 on the season and most recently blew out Louisiana 52-10 in Week 3.
South Carolina-Mizzou betting odds, predictions
Here’s what the up-to-date college football betting lines look like for this game:
South Carolina fact sheet
- Star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was questionable for this game until Friday, but now is expected to play. Sellers missed most of South Carolina’s 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt after appearing to suffer a head injury.
- Even before the Sellers injury, South Carolina’s offense has been on life support. The Gamecocks averaged 5.9 yards per play against a dreadful Virginia Tech team in Week 1. Then they turned around in Week 2 and managed just 4.5 yards per play against FCS South Carolina State. The Gamecocks didn’t score their first offensive touchdown until the second half of that game.
- The running game has been a huge problem under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula. Through 3 games, the Gamecocks are averaging just 3.2 yards per rush. They rank 121st in that category.
- For all the talk about Rahsul Faison’s eligibility case in the preseason, he’s been in something close to a 50/50 timeshare with Oscar Adaway to begin the year. Adaway has actually out-snapped Faison 38 to 35. Perhaps Faison’s usage will increase as he gets more comfortable, but it’s something to note. Faison (5 yards per carry, 3.6 yards after contact) has clearly been the more effective of the pair.
- South Carolina has had plenty of pass catchers involved in the offense this season. Per PFF, the Gamecocks have 8 players who have earned 5 targets already this season. Only Nyck Harbor (13) has more than 7 entering this week’s game. Harbor has been the go-to guy for Sellers, but he’s only caught 7 of his 13 targets. The good news is he’s averaging over 23 yards per reception.
- Defensively, South Carolina has been middle-of-the-pack this season according to most advanced metrics. The Gamecocks are 75th in EPA-per-pass allowed and 54th in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper.
- Dylan Stewart has been slightly less productive to start the year than he was a year ago. Stewart has already been credited with 11 pressures, 8 quarterback hurries and 2 sacks, per PFF. However, his win rate of 12.5% is lower than the 16% he posted across all 13 games last season. It’s possible his production will dip a little bit as competition level increases in SEC play.
Mizzou fact sheet
- It’s hard to point to a bigger surprise than Beau Pribula through 3 weeks. Pribula didn’t even enter Week 1 with the job secure as Eli Drinkwitz planned to evaluate both him and Sam Horn against Central Arkansas. Unfortunately for Horn, he suffered a season-ending injury on his first snap.
- Pribula has done well to take advantage of the clear pathway. He’s 4th in the SEC with a 174.76 passer efficiency rating. He has 7 touchdowns, 1 interception and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s also 10th nationally in dead-end throw rate entering Week 4.
- Mizzou transfer running back Ahmad Hardy also looks like a hit. Hardy is coming off of a 250-yard game in Week 3. Among running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Hardy leads the nation in EPA-per-rush, according to Game on Paper. He’s averaging over 8 yards per carry so far.
- Transfer receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. has been excellent as well. Per PFF, he’s caught 24 of his 27 targets on the young season. Twenty of those targets have come either behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 9 yards downfield.
- About 90% of Coleman’s snaps so far have come in the slot. Mizzou’s outside deep threat is Marquis Johnson, who has caught 9 of his 15 targets for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this year.
- As a whole, Mizzou is 4th in schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper.
- Defensively, Mizzou has really struggled to stop the run this year despite facing a schedule of Central Arkansas, Kansas and Louisiana. Central Arkansas managed over 150 rushing yards in the season opener (3.9 per carry). The Jayhawks didn’t get much accomplished on the ground, but Louisiana was able to gain 5 yards per attempt in Week 3.
- That may not sound too terrible, but the result is Mizzou ranks 94th in rush defense success rate entering Week 4.
South Carolina vs. Mizzou picks
I think we see Mizzou try to hit a big play or 2 in this game. That would mean a few downfield targets for Marquis Johnson, who is probably the Tigers’ most-reliable outside receiver entering this game. He had multiple 40+ yard catches last season and could get loose for one in this matchup as well. South Carolina is in the 4th percentile in pass defense explosiveness, per Game on Paper. The Gamecocks rank near the bottom of the SEC in passing plays of 20+ or 30+ yards conceded after 3 games.
Pick: Marquis Johnson over 37.5 receiving yards (-114 on FanDuel)
I’m going to continue to fade South Carolina’s offense until further notice. I think this unit is being priced as somewhere around the FBS average, but I’d have it a tier or 2 lower than that. I find 4.5 yards per play against an FCS defense to be unforgivable and the performance against Vanderbilt — even with mostly a backup quarterback — didn’t do anything to change my estimations of this unit. Even if Sellers plays in this game — and I expect him to — I don’t think the Gamecocks will do much damage offensively against a highly-motivated and better-coached Mizzou team on the road.
Pick: South Carolina alt team total under 17.5 (+100 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
