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Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Stanford. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | NC State | North Carolina | Pitt | SMU
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There are ruts. Then there’s the chasm into which Stanford’s football program is currently stuck.
The Cardinal haven’t won more than 4 games in a season since before the pandemic. And they’ve finished 3-9 in each of the past 3 seasons.
Last year’s team finished 129th out of 130 Division I teams in points (37.2) and yards allowed (461.7) while finishing 110th in points scored (20.6). Five of its losses were by 33 points or more. It was also the only FBS team without a home win.
It’s no surprise that Stanford was picked to finish last in its first ACC preseason poll.
Clearly there’s a long way to go just to return to respectability. Let alone the days of earning double-digit victories, as the Cardinal did 6 times in 7 years between 2010-16 under Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw.
But every reclamation project has to have a starting point.
And this one started literally from the ground up.
“When we first arrived, we had lost 17 players,” 2nd-year coach Troy Taylor said. “We lost them to the transfer portal. We had a young, inexperienced team for the most part.”
Taylor, a former quarterback who set passing records at rival Cal, is still in the early stages of replenishing Stanford’s talent pool. But with 85% of last season’s production returning, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, he’s off to a solid start.
Especially since one of those returning players, wide receiver Elic Ayomanor, is coming off a spectacular debut season in which he earned Freshman All-American honors by catching 62 passes for 1,013 yards and 6 touchdowns.
“We are a much more experienced team this year, much deeper team,” Taylor said. “In this day and age, just having your team stick around is a pretty big deal.”
How big a deal is it?
Let’s look into the Crystal Ball and find out.
Homegrown Cardinal
No one in the ACC, with the glaring exception of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, brought in fewer transfers this offseason than the Cardinal’s Taylor. He landed only 4. Two of whom, cornerback Jaivion Green and tight end Griffin Waiss, came from former Pac-12 rival Washington. Defensive lineman Clay Patterson from UNLV and linebacker Jahsiah Galvan from Northern Iowa are the others.
Unlike Swinney, Taylor isn’t philosophically opposed to the practice of taking in veteran free agents from other programs. It’s just that not all prospective transfers can meet his school’s rigid academic requirements. It’s exponentially easier to transfer out of Stanford than it is to transfer in.
That’s why, whether by choice or out of necessity, the 2nd-year coach has concentrated his rebuilding effort around a more traditional style of recruiting.
This year’s class of 25 incoming freshmen has been ranked 7th in the ACC by 247Sports. It’s a group led by 4-star quarterback Elijah Brown, who has been pushing incumbent Ashton Daniels during preseason camp and could end up being the starter by season’s end. Brown is joined by 2 other 4-star prospects – running back Cole Tabb and defensive lineman Benedict Umeh.
While building a program from within with homegrown talent takes more time than the quick fix of a large transfer haul, Taylor believes the result will be much more rewarding. Provided, of course, he can keep them all in the program.
“We try to treat our guys the right way. We want them to be here for four years,” he said. “I think it’s one of the appeals of Stanford. If you’re smart enough to choose Stanford, I think you’re smart enough to stay until you get your degree. That’s what I’m counting on, at least.”
Stanford’s rising star
At 6-2, 210 pounds with sure hands and sprinter’s speed, Ayomanor is the picture of the prototypical star receiver. His path to becoming one, on the other hand, has been anything but typical.
“I’m originally from Medicine Hat, Alberta, Canada,” the preseason All-ACC selection said. “You’d see United States of America football. You’d see the highlights on Instagram and YouTube. I remember my kid self vividly thinking I wanted to compete with these guys. I think I can do this for myself. Obviously, at that point, it was more of a dream. I didn’t think I would ever actually get that opportunity. But by way of good virtue and luck, I ended up getting the opportunity.”
Aymanor wasn’t exactly the proverbial nobody from nowhere at the start of last season. He was a 3-star recruit who attracted the interest of several power conference programs out of high school, after all. But after choosing Stanford and sitting out his true freshman season with a torn ACL, he was about as far off the national radar as his hometown, which is much better known as a breeding ground for hockey players.
That changed on the afternoon of Oct. 13 in Boulder, Colorado.
https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1713072740268495317
Aymanor introduced himself to the college football world with a school-record-setting 13-catch, 294-yard, 3-touchdown performance in a double-overtime victory against Coach Prime and his Buffaloes. It was a masterpiece punctuated by a spectacular grab off Travis Hunter’s helmet on his way into the end zone.
It was the springboard to Freshman All-American recognition and the promise of even greater rewards this season.
The key to Stanford’s improvement is ________ ?
The big guys up front. On both sides of the ball.
It’s not that the Cardinal didn’t have any capable running backs last season while ranking 103rd nationally at just over 118 yards per game on the ground. There just weren’t enough holes for their back to run through.
Because the cast of characters is virtually the same this year with starters Fisher Anderson (LT), Trevor Mayberry (LG), Levi Rogers (C), Simione Pale (RG) and Connor McLaughlin (RT) all returning, the offseason emphasis has been on strength and conditioning rather than making drastic changes in the team’s offensive scheme.
“Physicality has always been a main staple of Stanford football. We’re taught that from the 1st day that we get here,” quarterback Daniels said. “To top of that, our strength staff has done an outstanding job. Shout-out to Coach (Ryan) Deatrick and the staff. They’re making us stronger, faster. Everything we need to do to be out there, to be able to go out there and be as physical as we can.”
The need to be stronger and more physical up front is just as urgent on defense. But that’s only half the battle. According to linebacker Tristan Sinclair, the Cardinal needs to become more aggressive in their defensive approach to improve a pass rush that managed only 23 sacks last season, ranking next-to-last in the Pac-12, and a run defense that got carved up for nearly 5 yards per carry and had trouble getting off the field on 3rd down.
“The philosophy that (defensive coordinator Bobby) April talks about is playing red,” Sinclair said. “Playing red for us is like playing right on that line. Playing right on the edge. It’s preparation, execution, competitiveness, physical, tough, all the traits that we talk about.The biggest thing I’d say is running to the ball is huge.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. TCU (W)
Call it a hunch. TCU has taken a step back from its national championship game appearance 2 seasons ago. Stanford is at home and excited about the beginning of a new era in its program’s history as a member of the ACC. The Horned Frogs have no answer for Elic Ayomanor.
Week 2: vs. Cal Poly (W)
The Mustangs aren’t just an FCS team. They’re an FCS team coming off a 3-win season. Don’t look now, but the Cardinal are already two-thirds of the way toward matching last year’s win total.
Week 3: Open
Week 4: at Syracuse (L)
Back to reality. The Cardinal gets their first taste of the ACC. And cross-country travel.
Week 5: at Clemson (L)
Hopefully, Taylor and his team will stay on the East Coast rather than making 2 straight transcontinental flights. Either way it won’t matter. If Stanford thinks playing the Orange was tough, wait until they get to the land of orange tiger paws.
Week 6: vs. Virginia Tech (L)
The Hokies have everyone of significance back from a team that finished last season on a high note and has realistic aspirations of getting to the ACC Championship Game in Brent Pry’s 3rd season.
Week 7: at Notre Dame (L)
The Cardinal and the Irish have played every year since 1997, with the winner earning possession of the Legends Trophy. It’s a series that began in 1925 when the teams met in the Rose Bowl. Despite the disparity in their recent fortunes, Stanford has actually held its own against Notre Dame, including a win the last time they played in South Bend 2 seasons ago. This one won’t go as well.
Week 8: vs. SMU (L)
Like the Cardinal, the Mustangs are newcomers to the ACC this season. That’s about all they have in common. The game might be closer than it should be because it’s at Stanford. But SMU has more and better talent on both sides of the ball.
Week 9: vs. Wake Forest (W)
The Deacons are in rebuilding mode after finishing in the ACC cellar last year. If Stanford is going to win a conference game in its debut season, this is the one.
Week 10: at NC State (L)
The Wolfpack led the ACC with 17 interceptions and were among the league leaders with 24 takeaways last season. Between their opportunistic defense and an offensive fully stocked with playmakers off the transfer portal, Stanford’s 3rd cross-country trip doesn’t promise to be any better than the first 2.
Week 11: Open
Week 12: vs. Louisville (L)
It was a long time ago, but Louisville’s 7th-year quarterback Tyler Shough has already beaten the Cardinal. He threw for 227 yards and a touchdown in a 35-14 win in 2020 while he was still playing for Oregon. Two schools ago.
Week 13: at Cal (L)
Anyone who’s familiar with The Big Game knows that anything can and usually does happen when these rivals get together. This time, though, the Bears have too much Jaydn Ott for the Cardinal to handle.
Week 14: vs. at San Jose State (W)
It’s rivalry week. And there are only about 15 miles between the 2 campuses as the crow flies. But the teams haven’t met since 2013, making this a strange choice for a season-ending game. On the plus side, the Spartans of the Mountain West Conference, in their 1st season under former Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, give Stanford a realistic chance at finishing on a high note.
2024 projection: 4-8 (1-7)
#GoStanford
After winning only 3 games in his debut season with the Cardinal, Taylor is still working to build a foundation for his program as it prepares to enter the ACC. That means establishing a culture as much as it does evaluating talent.
Taylor’s history suggests he’s got a shot at succeeding. In 3 seasons at FCS Sacramento State, his teams went a combined 30-8 with 3 consecutive Big Sky Conference championships.
Repeating that kind of success at Stanford is going to be a challenge, especially in a conference that requires frequent cross–country travel. But the Cardinal has won before. And it can happen again,
It’s just not going to happen overnight.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
