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Sweet 16: How Auburn can knock off No. 1 seed North Carolina
By Chris Wright
Published:
The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups. All it takes is one bad one for the dream to end.
Such is the case Friday night in Kansas City, when No. 5 Auburn meets No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16.
UNC, which won its most recent NCAA title in 2017, is a 5-point favorite. That’s the smallest margin, however, among the four No. 1 seeds.
There’s a reason. Several, actually. And it’s all about the matchup. Simply, what Auburn does well matches up extremely well with the Tar Heels’ few weaknesses.
Here are the 3 biggest keys for Auburn to beat UNC and advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1986.
1. Shoot a season-high number of 3s
There is zero suspense in the game plan. Auburn is the most prolific 3-point shooting team in the country. UNC, historically under Roy Williams, is one of the worst at defending it.
Carolina rarely loses in a traditional sense or style. Typically, teams beat them from the outside, trading 3s for 2s.
UNC has 6 losses. In 4 of them, opponents made at least 11 3-pointers. Twenty times already, UNC has allowed 9 or more 3s in a game. Sixty percent of their opponents have attempted at least 25 3s against them. UNC counts on you eventually missing enough to allow its transition offense to take over. It’s hard to argue with their success rate, too, considering Williams has won 3 NCAA titles since returning from Kansas.
Auburn’s season-high for 3-point attempts is 41. I’ll be shocked if they don’t approach that Friday and mildly surprised if they don’t surpass it. UNC plays with such pace that the Tigers will have more possessions than usual.
On average, 49.4 percent of Auburn’s field-goal attempts are 3-pointers. Again, expect that number to soar past 50 percent against the Tar Heels.
Auburn’s season-high for made 3s is 18. The NCAA Tournament record is 21. Those are the numbers to shoot for.
2. Swarm Luke Maye in the post
This UNC team doesn’t have a dominant NBA-caliber inside presence. Luke Maye does a lot of damage in the paint, but that’s often on putbacks. He loves that 10-foot baseline jumper, especially if he catches the ball in space and can face up.
There’s no coincidence that his poorest shooting games have come against the most aggressive defenses, namely Virginia, Louisville and Michigan. Those teams challenged entry passes and were successful in forcing Maye to put the ball on the floor and create his offense.
It’ll be interesting to see how Bruce Pearl chooses to defend the Tar Heels. Cam Johnson’s size — he’s essentially a 6-9 shooting guard — makes him a difficult cover for bigger, heavier forwards.
Chuma Okeke is probably better suited to play Maye than anybody else the Tigers have. That would leave Anfernee McElmore on Johnson.
But the Tigers’ goal should be to force the ball out of Maye’s hands and back to the perimeter. UNC is a streaky 3-point shooting team, but not necessarily a good one.
3. Make Coby White beat you
Sounds dangerous, right? Dare UNC’s leading scorer to beat you.
Here’s the thing: White is still a freshman who always plays in sixth gear and has a tendency to get out of control. That’s especially true he tries to trade buckets with an opposing guard. If Jared Harper and Bryce Brown shoot it the way they are capable, White certainly will have plenty of opportunities.
Auburn fans will look at White and see a lot of similarities to Alabama’s Collin Sexton. White is slightly bigger, but both attack with a scorer’s mentality. He wants to take over games, sometimes at the expense of finding Maye or Johnson.
White is 4-for-26 from behind the arc in UNC’s 6 losses. His assist-to-turnover ratio is 14-15.
When he’s good, so are the Tar Heels. But if Auburn’s veteran backcourt can win this battle, there is a very good chance the Tigers will play Sunday for a spot in the Final Four.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
