Takeaways from an eventful penultimate College Football Playoff Poll of 2025
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Well, well, well.
For the “rankings don’t matter until the end” crowd, Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff Poll dunked all over that. It had some changes within the top 12 that should’ve raised some eyebrows, perhaps most notably Alabama and Notre Dame changing spots ahead of conference championship weekend. We also saw Texas A&M fall to No. 7 and Miami stand pat at No. 12.
Here’s what the latest poll looked like:
These were the top takeaways from a pivotal Tuesday night ranking:
Win or lose in Atlanta, Alabama is all but locked into a Playoff berth after jumping Notre Dame for the No. 9 spot
That was a significant development after the Tide spent each of the last 2 weeks behind the Irish. What changed? Perhaps nothing more than a change of heart in the eyes of the selection committee. Neither team faced Power Conference bowl teams in true road games, and it was obviously a dog fight for Alabama to survive at Jordan-Hare. Perhaps the fact that Alabama had 4 wins vs. ranked teams at the time of the matchup, including an all-important win at No. 3 Georgia, that moved the Tide past Notre Dame. You could also point to A&M suffering that first loss as a résumé factor for the Irish.
Whatever the case, that was a major bit of news ahead of conference championship weekend knowing that the No. 10 ranking is poised to be the last at-large team in the field. The No. 10 team, which is now idle Notre Dame, could get jumped by BYU if it knocks off Texas Tech in a Big 12 Championship rematch. Alabama, on the other hand, should be in position to benefit from last year’s SMU precedent. We watched Rhett Lashlee’s squad stay in the field ahead of idle teams from the SEC after going to the ACC Championship and losing. I still tend to think that despite the selection committee saying there’s a change this year that the idle conference championship weekend teams will still be evaluated, the selection committee wants to avoid any world in which teams want to opt out of conference title games if it can knock them out of the Playoff.
Does that mean the selection committee would be 100% sold on keeping the Tide if it lost 35-7 in Atlanta? Not necessarily, but it’s about as good of a ranking as Alabama could’ve asked for knowing that Notre Dame’s résumé isn’t changing this weekend.
Would Notre Dame be in jeopardy of missing out altogether if BYU wins and finally forces a side-by-side comp with Miami. As in, the Miami team it already lost to back in Week 1 and has a worse track record with common opponents.
The Irish finally stopped getting the benefit of the doubt on Tuesday.
Texas A&M falling to No. 7 instead of No. 6 was significant for 1 reason
Do I totally agree with A&M falling to No. 7? I don’t. I’d rather have the Aggies at No. 6 ahead of an Ole Miss team that has an extremely similar résumé, but has been more convincing in conference play. That has nothing to do with Lane Kiffin.
So why is it significant if seeds 5-8 are getting a home Playoff game? Isn’t A&M in ideal position to get that even if Alabama and BYU both win their respective conference titles? Yes, but this is about the strength of the matchup. Even if A&M stays at No. 7, it’ll likely face the last at-large team in the field (the No. 10 seed) instead of facing either a Group of 5 champ like Tulane, North Texas, James Madison or potential ACC champ Virginia.
Now, A&M should root for something like a blowout loss for Texas Tech. Aggie fans should be rooting for any scenario in which they move up to No. 6 on Selection Sunday.
Whether that’s realistic remains to be seen.
So yeah, No. 6 Ole Miss was never going to get punished in the rankings for Lane Kiffin leaving
That was dumb. Real dumb. And don’t tell me that Charlie Weis Jr. getting to call plays for Ole Miss made a difference in the eyes of the selection committee, who moved Kiffin’s former team up to No. 6 ahead of aforementioned A&M.
What about 2023 Florida State, you ask? Weren’t the Seminoles punished for not having Jordan Travis.
They were, unfairly so. We also had 2 games of watching that team fail to average 4.0 yards per play, and while it was a bogus decision, there was at least some sort of sample size to say that FSU was a different team.
There’s no sample size of 2025 Ole Miss without Kiffin. Even if there were, why would it make sense to punish his team in a 12-team Playoff when they haven’t been considered borderline to make the field? That take lacked juice.
Speaking of juice, there’ll be a whole lot of it in Oxford when Ole Miss is all but a lock to host a Playoff game.
Stick a fork in No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt, despite their best efforts
I don’t blame Steve Sarkisian and Clark Lea for lobbying on every platform imaginable, but they both knew their teams had slim chances. If their résumés were held against the 2024 field, perhaps that would be a different story. The problem is that both teams haven’t had virtually any top-12 chaos to warrant the selection committee moving them into the field.
The 3-loss résumé for Texas also includes the 3 wins vs. AP Top 10 teams in the regular season, but reality is that Ohio State loss isn’t the dealbreaker that Sarkisian has made it out to be. Is there a good chance that Texas is in the field with a 10-2 record if Ohio State were instead Bowling Green? Sure, but even that’s not a certainty because that Florida loss aged like an avocado. It didn’t help that Texas got pummeled at Georgia late in the season. It would’ve helped had Texas been an otherwise-dominant team in SEC play, but the Longhorns had an average scoring margin of +2.8 against conference foes because it needed overtime to beat 5-win teams like Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, had nearly all of its wins age like an avocado. As much as we’d love to see this story continue, look at the best wins:
Those are the only 3 wins vs. FBS teams who finished with a winning record. If Vandy had gone into Alabama and won like Oklahoma did, that 10-2 would look a bit different. But that didn’t happen. Unfortunately for the Commodores, a loaded top 12 that figures to see several 10-win teams left out will likely include them.
If chalk plays out during conference championship weekend, we’ll likely know the top 12, but just not seeding
In case you need a reminder, this is chalk:
- Ohio State beats Indiana
- Georgia beats Alabama
- Texas Tech beats BYU
- Virginia beats Duke
- Tulane beats North Texas
- James Madison beats Troy
If that’s the case, Virginia and Tulane get the last 2 spots in the field while Notre Dame likely stands pat at No. 10. Again, Alabama falling out of the field in favor of an idle team seems unlikely. If that played out and those were all just standard, 1-score wins, this would be my guess for seeding on Selection Sunday:
- 1. Ohio State
- 2. Georgia
- 3. Indiana
- 4. Texas Tech
- 5. Oregon
- 6. Ole Miss
- 7. Texas A&M
- 8. Oklahoma
- 9. Alabama
- 10. Notre Dame
- 11. Virginia (as ACC champ)
- 12. Tulane (as highest ranked Group of 5 champ)
If we get a straightforward weekend, expect a fairly straightforward Selection Sunday.
Fingers crossed that isn’t the case.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
