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Tennessee vs. Kentucky is shaping up to be a crucial SEC East battle.
The Volunteers are coming off of a disappointing second-half performance vs. Alabama as they picked up their second loss of the season. Kentucky is coming out of its bye week, but the Wildcats are also riding a 2-game losing streak entering this matchup with Tennessee.
For one team, second place in the SEC East will still be a realistic possibility this season. For the losing squad, it will have already picked up 3 losses before the end of October.
Let’s take a look at some betting trends, advanced stats and other interesting information about these teams:
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Lines
Spread: Tennessee -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/under 51.5 points (DraftKings)
Check out these great sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big game.
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Betting trends to know for Kentucky
- Kentucky is 4-3 against the spread this season
- The over is 5-2 in Kentucky games this season
- Kentucky is 0-1 against the spread as an underdog this season
- Kentucky is 3-2 against the spread at home this season
Betting trends to know for Tennessee
- Tennessee is 4-3 against the spread this season
- The under is 4-3 in Tennessee games this season
- Tennessee is 0-2 against the spread on the road this season
- The Vols have failed to cover by an average of 7 points per game
- Tennessee is 4-2 against the spread as a favorite this season
There doesn’t appear to be too much of an edge with Kentucky’s trends this week, although here is a longterm trend worth noting: the Wildcats are 18-12 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. SEC opponents.
Tennessee has been elite within the confines of Neyland Stadium, but it hasn’t been the same away from home. Both of the Vols’ losses have come on the road (to Florida and Alabama) and they haven’t been particularly close to the number in either game.
Résumé rankings
Via ESPN’s Football Power Index:
- Tennessee strength of schedule: 22nd
- Kentucky strength of schedule: 60th
- Tennessee strength of record: 23rd
- Kentucky strength of record: 41st
Tennessee has faced a tougher schedule to this point in the season, although there’s not an egregious difference between the Vols and Wildcats. It’s worth noting that Tennessee is coming off of a tough, physical matchup vs. Alabama on the road while UK enters this game off of a bye week.
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing Success Rate
- Kentucky rushing offense success rate: 46% (68th percentile)
- Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 32% (96th percentile)
Kentucky definitely wants to run the ball, which could play directly into Tennessee’s hands. The Vols have been one of the nation’s best rushing defenses to this point in the season while the Wildcats haven’t had much success doing anything other than handing it off to Ray Davis (7 yards per carry so far this season).
Based on previous contests, Davis is probably going to get around 20 touches in this game. The question is, can the Vols limit his effectiveness? Tennessee has yet to allow any team to rush for more than 4.9 yards per carry so far this season. Kentucky enters this game with the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the SEC at 5.82 yards per carry.
- Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 46% (72nd percentile)
- Kentucky rushing defense success rate: 35% (89th percentile)
We’re looking at strength vs. strength here as well. Tennessee’s rushing offense has been solid this season while Kentucky’s rushing defense is near-elite. It’s possible Kentucky hasn’t been tested enough in this area, however. The Wildcats have faced one SEC rushing offense (Georgia) that ranks in the top half of the league in yards per carry. The Bulldogs went for 5.6 yards per carry on the Wildcats, which is by far the biggest number any rushing offense has put up on UK this season.
Passing Success Rate
- Kentucky passing offense success rate: 38% (27th percentile)
- Tennessee passing defense success rate: 37% (81st percentile)
Here’s a mismatch! Kentucky’s passing offense has fallen woefully below expectations so far this season with quarterback Devin Leary running the show. The Wildcats have slipped below 40% success rate on passing plays this season and the raw numbers look even worse. Kentucky ranks 13th out of 14 SEC teams in passer efficiency rating so far in 2023.
That makes this a spot where Tennessee’s pass defense can impose its will. The Vols rank third in the SEC in pass defense efficiency. If Tennessee can build a lead and force Kentucky to get aggressive through the air, this one could get away from the Wildcats quickly.
- Tennessee passing offense success rate: 43% (56th percentile)
- Kentucky pass defense success rate: 47% (9th percentile)
This is another potential mismatch in Tennessee’s favor. The Vols have been mediocre this season in the passing game thanks to some so-so performances from Joe Milton. Last week against the Tide, Milton attempted a season-high 41 passes for 278 yards. But in his two previous games, he combined for just 339 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 55 attempts. It’s been a mixed bag for Milton as a passer this season.
That being said, this is a great matchup for Milton to potentially get into a rhythm. Kentucky’s pass defense this season has been abysmal, allowing a success rate of 47% through Week 8. The Wildcats don’t give up an inordinate amount of explosive plays through the air, which means they’ve mainly struggled on a down-to-down basis. Among SEC teams, only Vanderbilt has a worse 3rd-down conversion allowed rate than UK so far in 2023.
Havoc rate
A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.
For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.
Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:
- Kentucky offensive havoc rate: 18% (35th percentile)
- Tennessee defensive havoc rate: 19% (80th percentile)
- Kentucky defensive havoc rate: 17% (42nd percentile)
- Tennessee offensive havoc rate: 14% (73rd percentile)
This is starting to be problematic for the Wildcats. Tennessee appears to have a pretty sizable havoc advantage on both sides of the ball. The Vols’ defensive front is particularly worrisome as they enter this game tied for 2nd in the SEC in tackles for loss. Offensively, the Vols have allowed the third-fewest tackles for loss of any SEC team this season.
Points per opportunity
A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.
- Kentucky points scored per opportunity: 4.3 (71st percentile)
- Tennessee points allowed per opportunity: 2.91 (85th percentile)
- Tennessee points scored per opportunity: 3.68 (39th percentile)
- Kentucky points allowed per opportunity: 3.64 (48th percentile)
There’s not much to glean here matchup-wise, but I will point out something interesting about Kentucky’s offense. The Wildcats convert so many of their scoring opportunities in-part because their offense has been very explosive so far this season. Kentucky averages more rushes of 20+ yards and 30+ yards per game than any other SEC team entering Week 8. But Tennessee’s defense has been equally stingy, allowing just 3 rushes of 30+ yards all season entering this weekend.
Tennessee’s offense hasn’t been very efficient with its scoring chances. The main culprit on that front seems to be settling for field goals. The Vols have already kicked 10 red zone field goals this season, which is just one off of the SEC lead. UT’s red zone conversion percentage of 84.85% ranks 10th among SEC teams.
Tracking efficiency
- Kentucky offense: 66th
- Kentucky defense: 51st
- Kentucky special teams: 37th
- Tennessee offense: 44th
- Tennessee defense: 10th
- Tennessee special teams: 61st
- Kentucky offense: 42nd
- Kentucky defense: 16th
- Kentucky special teams: 18th
- Tennessee offense: 20th
- Tennessee defense: 19th
- Tennessee special teams: 51st
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
