Tennessee will head on the road to Starkville this week to take on Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State in a big-time SEC matchup.
This game features 2 of the absolute fastest offenses in the country — Lebby and Josh Heupel both command offenses that rank in the top 20 nationally in seconds per play. It figures to be a very exciting matchup that will leave 1 of these teams excited about their College Football Playoff potential moving forward.
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State betting lines
Here’s an up-to-date look at the spread, total and money line markets for this game:
Here’s what you need to know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Tennessee fact sheet
- Tennessee is 3-1 this season, with its lone loss being a narrow home defeat against Georgia.
- The Vols still find themselves ranked in the top-15 this week, but public projection models generally are split on Josh Heupel’s team. Tennessee is 44th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA metric. However, ESPN’s SP+ ranks Tennessee fifth this week. KFord’s ratings have the Vols at 16th.
- Coming into the season, Tennessee’s defense was viewed as the strength of the team. That has not been the case so far this season. The Vols are 20th in yards-per-play on offense and 48th on defense.
- One big reason for the downturn in defensive results is due to injury. Tennessee has been without starting cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson for most (or all in McCoy’s case) of the season. McCoy and Gibson are once again expected to be out this weekend.
- Joey Aguilar leads all SEC quarterbacks with 12 touchdown passes so far this season. He’s also thrown 3 interceptions, but PFF data suggests he’s been a bit unfortunate in that regard — they credit him with only 1 turnover-worthy play so far in 2025. On the flip side, he also only has 3 big-time throws, which is tied for 11th among SEC quarterbacks with at least 100 drop-backs.
- Chris Brazzell has been Tennessee’s best playmaker so far this season. He has 25 catches for 426 yards and 6 touchdowns on the year. Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews also have double-digit receptions and multiple touchdowns on the year. Staley is much more likely to be targeted on short, high completion-rate throws while Brazzell and Matthews are more involved down the field.
- Tennessee has replaced Dylan Sampson with the duo of DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas. Both players have success rates of at least 50% entering Week 5, per Game on Paper.
- Tennessee’s secondary has not had good results this year. The Vols rank 100th nationally in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Tennessee has been a little better against the run by virtue of limiting explosive plays. However, the Vols are ranked 88th in rush defense success rate. It has conceded at least 4.5 yards per play to every FBS opponent this season. Most recently, UAB managed 5.5 yards per play against the Vols.
Mississippi State fact sheet
- Year 2 for Jeff Lebby in Starkville is off to a great start. The Bulldogs are 4-0 on the season and have a big win over Arizona State on their résumé.
- The advanced numbers largely back up Mississippi State’s rise. Lebby’s team is 17th in schedule-adjusted net EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. They’re up to No. 29 in SP+ this season.
- Blake Shapen has picked up where he left off last season before suffering an injury. Through 4 games, Shapen has a passer efficiency rating of just over 160 and is averaging almost 9 yards per attempt.
- Fluff Bothwell has gone somewhat under-the-radar, but he’s been one of the best transfer running backs in the country this season outside of Ahmad Hardy and Kewan Lacy. Bothwell has a 65% success rate on the year, per Game on Paper.
- Anthony Evans III and Brenen Thompson are far and away Mississippi State’s most targeted receivers. It’s a small sample, but Thompson (3) leads the team in red-zone receptions while Evans is still looking for his first red-zone catch this season.
- Of Mississippi State’s 43 red-zone plays this season, 26 have been designed runs. Davon Booth has 11, Bothwell has 10 and Blake Shapen has 5 (plus 2 sacks). As a passer in the red zone, Shapen has completed 7 of 10 pass attempts but has managed just 1 touchdown.
- Defensively, the Bulldogs have taken huge strides this year. The Bulldogs are top-25 in pass defense success rate, per Game on Paper. They haven’t faced a difficult schedule of passing offenses to date, but they did hold Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt to a paltry 82 yards on 22 attempts.
- Arizona State was able to run on Mississippi State at will, totaling 251 yards on 51 attempts. Northern Illinois also averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Bulldogs last week.
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State predictions
I like what I’ve seen from Mississippi State’s offense and am skeptical about this Tennessee defense until proven otherwise. The Blake Shapen-Fluff Bothwell backfield has been excellent so far and Mississippi State’s wide receiver room looks like a bad matchup for the Vols given their cornerback injuries. Even if Tennessee wins this game comfortably, I think Mississippi State will still find the end zone 3 or 4 times and create plenty of scoring opportunities (just as UAB and Syracuse did earlier this season).
Pick: Mississippi State team total over 26.5 (-122 on FanDuel)
I like Star Thomas in this game. He’s been pretty even with (if not slightly ahead of) DeSean Bishop in terms of rushing usage this season and he’s been more efficient on a down-to-down basis. I’m pretty weary of Mississippi State’s run defense based on what the Bulldogs looked like against Arizona State a few weeks ago. This Tennessee offense under Josh Heupel is absolutely willing to repeatedly run the ball if you let it. I think this number for Thomas is just too low.
Pick: Star Thomas over 45.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
