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Tennessee vs. South Carolina preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Published: Mar 6, 2024 · 10:42 AM EST

Tennessee will be looking for revenge — and the outright SEC regular season title — as it takes on South Carolina on Wednesday night.

The Gamecocks upset the Vols in Knoxville earlier this season, but it’s Tennessee who is in position to clinch the SEC with a win in this matchup. A South Carolina victory would mean these teams go into the final weekend of the regular season tied at 13-4 in the standings.

Let’s break down some of the details of this matchup:

Tennessee vs. South Carolina Betting Odds

Spread: Tennessee -5.5 (FanDuel)

Total: Over/Under 139.5 points (FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for Tennessee

Tennessee is…

15-13-1 against the spread
4-6 against the spread on the road
13-10-1 against the spread as a favorite
2-5 against the spread as an away favorite
7-2 against the spread in its last 9 games overall
20-6 against the spread in SEC games

Betting trends to know for South Carolina

South Carolina is…

21-8 against the spread
10-6 against the spread at home
11-2 against the spread as an underdog
2-0 against the spread as a home underdog
11-5 against the spread in SEC games

3 notes for the game

Breaking down Tennessee’s win streak

Tennessee is riding a 6-game winning streak as it prepares to take on South Carolina on Wednesday night. That hot streak has been powered by Tennessee’s defense. According to BartTorvik, the Vols have limited opponents to under 1 point per possession (adjusted for opponent) in all 6 of those contests. Tennessee’s adjusted defensive rating ranks 3rd nationally over that span, per BartTorvik.

The Vols’ adjusted offensive rating rankings 37th nationally over that span — solid, but unspectacular. Tennessee’s offense is much more balanced now than it was early in the year when Dalton Knecht was dominating the ball. In 9 games since the beginning of February, Knecht is averaging just over 15 field goal attempts per game. Other players such as Zakai Zeigler, Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi have all stepped up. Tennessee’s top 7 rotation players all have a true shooting percentage of at least 53% this season.

Overall, Tennessee ranks 3rd nationally per BartTorvik since Feb. 13 behind only Houston and UConn. Auburn, who Tennessee defeated during this most recent win streak, is the only other SEC program in the top-10.

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Lessons from the first meeting

South Carolina and Tennessee have already played once this season. The Gamecocks pulled off a surprising upset by deeating the Vols 63-59 in Knoxville. That remains Tennessee’s only home loss of the season and the Vols have won 8 of their last 9 games overall since that defeat.

So what happened? Tennessee’s offense stalled out, scoring just 0.91 points per possession in the loss. Knecht was responsible for over 41% of Tennessee’s total field goal attempts in that game. Knecht shot the ball well, scoring 31 points on his 24 shots — but no one else really got going for Tennessee. Ziegler, James and Aidoo combined to go 3-of-17 from the field.

South Carolina also went with a 3-point heavy approach against the Vols. The Gamecocks shot over 50% of their field goal attempts from beyond the 3-point line, and made a solid 34.5% of those tries. South Carolina also shot 15-of-18 (83%) at the foul line.

South Carolina has been one of the SEC’s best ATS

South Carolina has consistently been the SEC’s top-performer against the spread this season. The Gamecocks lead all SEC programs in both ATS wins overall and ATS wins as an underdog. That’s notable as they will be home dogs on Wednesday night against the Vols.

The market has seemingly done a better job of adjusting to South Carolina’s talent level in recent weeks. This marks the first time the Gamecocks have been an underdog at home since Jan. 23, when they earned a 17-point win over Kentucky as 5.5-point dogs. Since that win over the ‘Cats, South Carolina has been favored in 5 straight home games. It won all 5 and covered the spread in 3 of them.

1 pick for this game

Tennessee -5.5. South Carolina is good, but Tennessee has played like a true Final Four contender over the past few weeks. I think the Vols’ offense is much better than it was when the Gamecocks pulled off the upset a few weeks ago. There’s also no reason for Tennessee to look past South Carolina in this spot — a win would mean the Vols clinch the outright regular season title. A loss means South Carolina would be in the driver’s seat to have the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament. I’m backing Tennessee to get revenge on the road and split the season series with the Gamecocks.

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Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.