Texas A&M will make the trip to Death Valley on Saturday night to defend its undefeated record heading into Week 9 against LSU.
Both of these teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, although it’s Texas A&M who is much closer to achieving that goal. The Aggies are ranked in the top 5 in the AP Poll while LSU is likely 1 loss away from being removed from the CFP conversation altogether.
Texas A&M vs. LSU spread
Here’s a look at the up-to-date betting odds for this contest:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
LSU football notes
- LSU is coming off of a 31-24 loss to Vanderbilt last weekend. The Tigers were underdogs in that game, but it was still a somewhat-surprising result — Vandy hadn’t beaten LSU since 1990.
- Brian Kelly may be on the hot seat as LSU enters the home stretch of its season. Kelly has lost multiple games in each of his first 4 seasons as LSU’s head coach.
- LSU’s offense has been a big letdown this season. The Tigers rank 78th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric.
- A big reason for that has been the play of Garrett Nussmeier. He’s thrown just 10 touchdown passes this season and his yards-per-attempt are down compared to a year ago.
- LSU has also struggled to run the ball this season. Caden Durham began the year as LSU’s starter, but Harlem Berry earned more carries this past week against Vanderbilt.
- Defensively, LSU has been very good this season. The Tigers have allowed under 5 yards per play in 5 of their 7 games. The only exceptions are the games LSU lost to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. The Commodores gained 6 yards per play against LSU, which represented a season-worst for the Tigers’ defense.
Texas A&M football notes
- Texas A&M enters this game with an undefeated record. The Aggies are currently tied with Alabama atop the SEC standings.
- However, the Aggies are coming off of arguably their worst performance of the season. They narrowly defeated Arkansas 45-42 last week in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks gained 8.1 yards per play. It was the first time all season that Texas A&M gave up more than 6 yards per play in any single game.
- Texas A&M’s offense is led by quarterback Marcel Reed. He’s posted better passing metrics than he had a year ago, notably with an 8.8 yards per attempt mark. Reed is also a major threat with his legs as he’s already rushed for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns this season.
- KC Concepcion and Mario Craver are the names to know in Texas A&M’s passing offense. Craver has been especially efficient. He leads the SEC in receiving yards (668) and yards per route run (4.31).
- The Texas A&M defense has been excellent this season with the exception of the Arkansas game. Edge rusher Cashius Howell is Texas A&M’s best defensive player. He’s already registered 32 pressures this season, per PFF.
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LSU vs. Texas A&M picks
Mario Craver is having an awesome season, but defenses have seemingly adjusted to him after his hot start to the year. Over his first 3 games, Craver amassed 443 receiving yards. In his last 4, he’s at 231 receiving yards — just under 57 per game. I also don’t hate this matchup for LSU. Although LSU’s best defender is an outside cornerback (Mansoor Delane) and Craver plays mostly in the slot, the Tigers should be able to have a good plan for him. Per PFF, LSU slot cornerback PJ Woodland has allowed just 2 catches for 26 yards in 45 slot coverage snaps so far this season. Safety Tamarcus Cooley, who leads LSU in slot coverage snaps, has permitted just 79 receiving yards on 12 targets this season.
Pick: Mario Craver under 75.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
This will no doubt be a tough road test for Texas A&M. Death Valley, particularly at night, has arguably college football’s most-impactful home field advantage. But home field effects typically wane as the game progresses and I think the Aggies are the much better team in this matchup. I think Texas A&M will decisively win the fourth quarter of this game.
Pick: Texas A&M -0.5 in the fourth quarter (+110 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
