Safe to say the 2025 regular season didn’t go as hoped for Texas or Michigan.
Arch Manning’s Heisman bid ended early, and the Longhorns came up short in their Playoff bid. Michigan lost 3 games and fired coach Sherrone Moore for unsavory conduct. Consider their Citrus Bowl showdown (3 pm, ET, Wednesday on ESPN) an opportunity for redemption.
Texas opened as a 4.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, but that consensus line has grown to 7.5 on Dec. 30. We break down what matters most and offer our best bet for the Citrus Bowl.
Texas vs Michigan Citrus Bowl Odds
The betting markets have established Texas as a significant favorite. The consensus odds reflect strong confidence in the Longhorns, with the spread experiencing fluctuations as betting interest evolves.
Texas enters with a moneyline of -311, indicating substantial oddsmaker confidence in a Longhorns victory. Michigan sits as the underdog at +250, requiring the Wolverines to either win outright or lose by fewer than eight points to cover the spread. The game total suggests a high-scoring affair.
Based on current moneyline odds, the implied win probabilities (with sportsbook vig removed) are:
- Texas Longhorns: Implied win probability is 75.7%
- Michigan Wolverines: Implied win probability is 28.6%
For bettors, a successful $10 wager on the favored Longhorns would net a profit of $3.21, while a winning $10 bet on the underdog Wolverines would yield a more substantial profit of $25.
Bet365 Sportsbook has the Longhorns at -275, which would produce a $3.64 profit on a $10 bet.
Texas vs Michigan betting picks and predictions
Moore’s firing complicated Texas’ ability to scout the Wolverines. Before being promoted to head coach, Moore was the Wolverines’ offensive coordinator.
One constant? Texas will have to stop Michigan QB Bryce Underwood (2,229 yards with 9 TD passes). Like Manning, Underwood was the top QB recruit in the 2025 class. His freshman season has been bumpy, but the tools are undeniable.
Manning, meanwhile, has settled in, playing the back half of the schedule like the Heisman threat he was billed to be. Manning enters the Citrus Bowl with 2,942 yards and, barring something unforeseen, should become the next Texas QB — and next Manning — to throw for 3,000 yards in a season.
The most compelling factor for bettors is turnover differential, where Texas holds a commanding +12 advantage compared to Michigan’s modest +3. In bowl games of this magnitude, extra possessions are critical, and the Longhorns are far more likely to create them. Combined with a ferocious pass rush that has produced 38.0 sacks, Texas’ defense is equipped to force Michigan into uncomfortable passing situations, disrupting their preferred rhythm and creating short-field scoring opportunities.
Best Bet: Texas -7 (-115) at DraftKings on Dec. 30.
Both teams have demonstrated exceptional red zone efficiency, with Texas converting at an 84.4% clip while Michigan succeeds at a notable rate. Rather than settling for field goals, these offenses consistently finish drives with touchdowns. The Longhorns’ quick-strike capability through the air could force Michigan into a higher-tempo game than they prefer, leading to more possessions and additional scoring opportunities for both sides. With two offenses combining to average a significant number of points per game, this total appears conservative.
Secondary Bet: Over 48.5 (-108)
SPORTSBOOK
Statistical Breakdown: Who has the edge?
Michigan will aim to control the clock with its running game.
Michigan’s methodical running game allows the Wolverines to dictate game flow and maintain field position advantages. Texas counters with an explosive passing game averaging 253.2 yards per game, which drives the Longhorns’ slight scoring advantage at 29.6 points per contest.
Situational football and defensive pressure
Key situational metrics highlight where each team creates advantages, particularly in turnover creation and pressure generation that can shift momentum in critical moments.
The most significant disparity appears in turnover differential, where Texas maintains a phenomenal +12 advantage compared to Michigan’s solid +3. This edge stems from an aggressive Texas defense that has produced 38.0 sacks while forcing a significant number of total turnovers. While Michigan excels on third downs with a 46.3% conversion rate, they face a Texas defense designed to create negative plays and disrupt offensive rhythm. Additionally, the Longhorns have been more clinical in scoring situations, converting red zone opportunities at an 84.4% rate compared to Michigan’s 78.7%.
Injury Report: Both teams near full strength
Texas and Michigan are managing the typical challenges of player opt-outs that have become common in non-playoff bowl games.
Texas is without 3 defensive starters who are preparing for the NFL Draft: CB Jaylon Guilbeau, LB Anthony Hill Jr., and safety Michael Taaffe.
Star edge rusher Colin Simmons is expected to play — and his ability to wreck a game figures heavily into our pregame betting strategy.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
