The 4 SEC teams with the most boom or bust potential
By Ethan Stone
Published:
Florida State started the 2024 season ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll.
Arizona State and Indiana, meanwhile, did not receive a single vote and started the season well outside the Top 25. As I’m sure you well know, these weren’t among the pollsters’ most prescient calls — the Seminoles lost Week 0 and finished the season 2-10 with 1 win over FBS competition while Arizona State and Indiana lost a combined 3 times (regular season) and went on to crack the 12-team College Football Playoff.
So, what is there to take away from this?
Some will insist preseason polls are simply dumb and bad. I don’t fully agree, but I understand the sentiment. Releasing polls before a snap of football has been played offers a good way to generate excitement around the game after months and months of anticipation, but should still be taken with a grain of salt at the end of the day. Anyone can go 2-10. Anyone can go 10-2. College football is chaotic and volatile by nature — that’s part of what makes it so great.
That said, some teams are just tougher to forecast than others. While the 2024 poll missed completely with the teams listed above, it stuck the landing with Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Oregon — all CFP quarterfinalists and all preseason top 8 teams. You’d have been considered crazy, or at the very least unserious, to not pick Ohio State as one of the best teams in America last August. Just like you’d have to be quite bold to insist Texas isn’t set to be among the best teams in the SEC this year.
Ohio State and Texas are safely in most top 5s you’ll find this preseason. But what on Earth do we do about Auburn? What about Michigan, Florida State (again) or pretty much any Big 12 team?
There are many more programs around the country with that uncertain mix of significant questions and significant talent, but considering this is an SEC-based site, we’ll stay down south today. Who are the 4 toughest teams to forecast in the SEC this season, and are they more likely to boom or bust?
Let’s dive in.
4. Tennessee
I seriously debated even including Tennessee on this list, but at their core the Vols are the definition of “unpredictable” heading into the new season.
It starts at the most important position in football. Joey Aguilar was named the starter for Tennessee on Sunday night and will lead the Vols against Syracuse on Aug 30. I’m of the belief that he’ll have a better season than most are expecting, but I can also accept the reality that Aguilar has had a very up and down career throwing the football.
Every major receiver from last season apart from Chris Brazzell is gone, which doesn’t make his job any easier. The run game, with 3 good backs and what should be a good but not great offensive line, should be a primary strength for the Vols’ offense.
Tim Banks’ defense is far from the biggest worry on the team, but replacing James Pearce and Omarr Norman-Lott along the defensive line is no easy task. Jermod McCoy is one of the best corners in football when healthy, but his status to start the season is currently questionable. What if that injury lingers?
If Aguilar flops and the Vols become entirely one-dimensional like Oklahoma did last year, this team could easily lose 5 or 6 games. At the same time, if the passing attack clicks, the Vols objectively have one of the more complete units in the league and could go 10-2 or better with one of the tamer schedules in the SEC.
I see the Vols as a 9-win team the way their schedule plays out, which is why I debated including Tennessee on a boom or bust list in the first place. While 6-6 or 7-5 is certainly on the table for the Vols, I lean towards Tennessee surprising a few people.
Prediction: Boom
3. Auburn
The argument for and against the Auburn Tigers revolves around 2 individuals: coach Hugh Freeze and QB Jackson Arnold.
On paper, this is the most talented Tigers team in a long time. The receiver corps is strong with Cam Coleman, Eric Singleton and Malcolm Simmons. Keldric Faulk is one of the better pass rushers in America. The trenches should be improved from last year, which will in part help the run game with Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb itching to break out. There is plenty of experience to build off of in the secondary.
But it all goes back to Freeze and Arnold. All that power is good for nothing if there isn’t enough weight on the tires.
If reports are to be believed, the Tigers have a convoluted plan of attack when it comes to calling plays, with 3 different coaches set to call 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs. That’s not streamlining anything for Arnold, who could not have had a worse freshman season at Oklahoma. The former 5-star appears to need confidence and simplicity in a big way, and I’m just not a believer that Freeze and the Auburn staff can deliver.
Prediction: Bust
2. Oklahoma
2025 is a very, very important year for the Oklahoma Sooners.
Brent Venables has posted a pair of 6-win seasons since arriving in Norman back in 2022. Last season was just depressing. Jackson Arnold didn’t pan out, to say the least. Injuries plagued the offense, which caused the Sooners to limp to 6 wins.
Needless to say, some changes have been made.
OC Ben Arbuckle and QB John Mateer are here from Pullman, Washington, looking to revive the Sooners offense. Jaydn Ott — a shifty back who totaled 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023 — also joins from out west, via Cal. The receivers, apart from Deion Burks, are brand new. On the other side of the ball, star LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman are off to the NFL, but there’s reason to believe Brent Venables will still have a solid unit with R Mason Thomas, Kip Lewis and Eli Bowen as leaders.
Sounds like a lot of good, right? Let’s get to the schedule.
Oklahoma faces an absolute gauntlet in 2025, one of the toughest schedules in the country. Michigan looms in the nonconference. Texas in Dallas is always tough. The Sooners face road games against Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina — all hard places to play. Then of course there’s LSU, Mizzou and a tough-to-predict Auburn on the docket in Norman. That schedule, paired with a quarterback who is jumping up in competition with receivers who are all new to the system, is a lot to overcome.
I understand the argument that Oklahoma is ready to break out this season with Mateer’s obvious talent at the QB position. If the schedule wasn’t so brutal, maybe I’d be on board, but there’s just too much that needs to gel.
Prediction: Bust
1. Florida
I’ll just get this out of the way early. I believe in Florida’s vision — the Gators can contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff this year.
DJ Lagway has special potential under center, especially behind an offensive line that should be among the best in the nation. RB Jadan Baugh is being criminally underrated. There’s talent in the WR room with Tre Wilson primed for a breakout year. J Michael Sturdivant is another solid option transferring in from UCLA, and Dallas Wilson is a 5-star freshman who can contribute immediately. Finally, 7 starters return on defense after noticeable improvement from the start to end of last season.
So why are the Gators No. 1 on my list of boom or bust options in the SEC this year? DJ Lagway’s health paired with the very toughest schedule in college football. Full stop.
If you thought Oklahoma’s schedule was hard, you’ve seen nothing yet. If you’re this far in the article you probably know it all too well anyway: at LSU, at Miami, at Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, vs. Texas, vs. Georgia (Jacksonville), vs. Tennessee and vs. Florida State to end the year. Even at Kentucky won’t be a walk in the park, y’all. By my estimation the Gators get just 3 breaks all year — vs. LIU, vs. South Florida and vs. Mississippi State — and the first 2 are the Gators’ first games of the season.
Finally, Lagway’s health concerns are well-documented. Harrison Bailey is not exactly an elite option behind Lagway. The Gators boast one of the more talented rosters in the sport, but it all falls apart without a QB against that schedule. If Lagway’s injury issues crop up once again early in the season, the Gators might as well just pack it all up.
Let’s see what you’ve got, DJ.
Prediction: Boom
Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.
