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The best bets among Group of 5 schools to make the College Football Playoff in 2025

Published: Jul 1, 2025 · 10:00 AM EDT

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, Group of 5 schools had a legitimate and defined path to the Playoff in 2024.

For years, the 4-team field was an invitational for power conference teams only. We had a 13-0 Western Michigan that was excluded in 2016, then a 12-0 UCF that claimed its own national championship after being left out in 2017. Memphis, Boise State, and App State were all 12-1 during the 2019 season, but none were ranked higher than 17th in the final CFP rankings.

It took Cincinnati winning 21 consecutive regular-season games for the Group of 5 to finally break through, but Alabama humbled the Bearcats in the semis and the damage was done.

The format has changed slightly for the 2025-26 season — with first-round byes no longer guaranteed for the highest-ranked conference champions — after Boise State was among the top 4 seeds handled in their quarterfinal games a year ago. But the spot is still guaranteed. The path is still there.

So, which non-power conference team can make it to the College Football Playoff in 2025?

Here are some of your options:

Odds for the top Group of 5 teams to make the Playoff

Boise State +190
Tulane +650
Navy +800
Army +1000
Liberty +1000
James Madison +1000
UNLV +1000
UTSA +1400
Louisiana +1500
Toledo +1800
Texas State +1900
Georgia Southern +2000

odds via DraftKings

The Favorite — Boise State

The obvious answer is probably the right answer in this instance. The Broncos went 12-2 last season, including running the table against Mountain West competition. Boise State beat Oregon State in a crossover game and it nearly beat Oregon in Eugene. While it did lose to Penn State by 17 in the CFP quarters, I don’t think that loss will be held against the Broncos this season.

When I wrote this piece last season, and I listed Boise State as my go-to pick from the G5 pool to make the CFP, I wrote this:

“They’re a brand-name school outside the [power conferences], which is something very few other programs can claim. And the Chris Petersen days should still provide some sweat equity for Boise even though the program is coming off an 8-6 season.”

That proved to be very much true. Boise State wasn’t even ranked in the preseason AP Poll, and it was in the AP Top 20 by the first week of October. The Broncos were 12th in the very first CFP rankings from the selection committee despite, at that point, only playing 2 teams that would finish the season top-60 in SP+. And Boise State lost 1 of those 2 games.

Given Boise State’s history, there’s a sense of security with the Broncos that isn’t there with most other G5 programs. Boise State will draw a crowd. Boise State has proven capable of beating big-name teams.

And it’ll get another chance to do so during the 2025 regular season. The Broncos travel to South Bend on Oct. 4 to face Notre Dame. Because of the CFP structure, Boise State doesn’t have to win that game to get into the field. Should Boise State manage to pull off an upset, though? The Broncos would be pretty close to a lock.

If they’re capable of beating Notre Dame on the road, they won’t lose more than 1 or 2 regular-season games. The nonconference portion of the schedule also features South Florida on a Thursday night in Week 1 and Appalachian State in Week 5. According to Bill Connelly’s SP+, Boise State’s strength of schedule ranks 84th nationally, which isn’t great, but also isn’t Liberty-levels of barf.

The Broncos are also 13th nationally in returning production despite losing a pair of superstars on both sides of the football. Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, has to be replaced. Defensive end Ahmed Hassanein has to be replaced. But the Broncos probably have better depth than any other team in the conference.

And they might have another offensive star to lean on in quarterback Maddux Madsen.

Boise State won’t have the singular talent of Jeanty in the backfield, but the replacement committee, even if its 75% of what Jeanty was, could still be the best group in the Mountain West. And Madsen has an elite tight end (Matt Lauter) to throw the ball to. So long as the group of largely unproven pass-catchers isn’t a net negative, Madsen is a candidate to ascend.

The 5-10 passer beat out former 5-star USC recruit Malachi Nelson to win the job heading into 2024. He started every game and threw for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. Three of those picks came in the CFP quarterfinal loss to Penn State. (He still finished that game with an 86.2 QBR thanks to a 66% completion rate and 304 yards at 8.7 a pop.) From Oct. 5 through Dec. 6, Madsen had 15 passing touchdowns and 1 interception.

He had a QBR better than 75.0 in 9 of his 14 games. According to Game on Paper, he finished top 20 among FBS quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. And he finished top 30 in ESPN’s Total QBR metric. Madsen benefited a ton from Jeanty’s gravity, as he was much better in play-action situations than straight dropbacks.

The knee-jerk reaction might be that he’ll have to make more plays on his own with Jeanty gone, but that might not be the case. Boise State returns 10 of the 11 offensive linemen who made at least 1 start last season, and the aforementioned running back room has 4 guys who could all see the field.

SP+ forecasts 9.8 wins for Boise State in 2025. I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a major decline. According to Connelly’s returning production calculations, no other Mountain West team is top-60 in returning production and 7 of the 12 teams rank 80th or worse. Even if Boise does take a step back, there’s only 1 other team in the league that can challenge them…

Bet the Broncos +198 to make the CFP at FanDuel

The Darkhorse — UNLV

… Which brings us to 1 of 2 darkhorses I think are worthy of backing this preseason.

In case you missed it, Dan Mullen is coaching the UNLV Rebels in 2025. And the former Florida coach absolutely loaded up on power conference transfers for his season. The skinny of it: UNLV might just be more athletic than its non-Boise peers in the Mountain West this upcoming season, and that makes a potential MWC Championship rematch between the Broncos and the Rebels the most likely outcome.

This is a transition year, to be clear. According to Connelly’s tracking, UNLV ranks 132nd in returning production out of 136 FBS teams. Three players ran for 500 yards or more and 2 of them are gone. Three players caught at least 15 passes last year and all 3 of them are gone. The top 2 quarterbacks are gone. Nine of the team’s top 10 tacklers are gone, including each of the top 6.

But it might not be a rebuild. If his portal aggression is any indication, Mullen certainly isn’t approaching this like some multi-year, slow-and-steady process.

So far this offseason, the Rebels have added 42 incoming transfer players to go with 18 high school and junior college signees. Of the transfers, 26 came from power conference schools.

Mullen added former Utah running back Jaylon Glover, former Oklahoma running back Emeka Megwa, and former Michigan quarterback Alex Orji. Glover and Megwa are former 4-star prospects as recruits. We know what Orji can do as a runner, and Mullen will be able to use him in unique spots because the Rebels also signed former Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea out of the portal.

Colandrea started 11 times for Virginia last season, throwing for 2,125 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions as a true sophomore. A Colandrea-Orji rotation probably doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in a league like the SEC or the Big Ten, but it does in the Mountain West.

UNLV might be able to out-talent teams. Orji could be a real difference-maker, taking advantage of defenses that just aren’t used to seeing his brand of size and athleticism. And Mullen has a proven track record for winning, with a .628 career winning percentage across 13 seasons in the SEC.

According to SP+, UNLV has a bottom-20 strength of schedule. It will play Idaho State, Sam Houston, UCLA, and Miami (OH) in the nonconference.

Consider the following scenario: UNLV gives UCLA a right, good scare on Sept. 6 but ultimately loses. It goes on the road to Boise State on Oct. 18 and loses a tight game. Then it meets up again with Boise State in the MWC title game and wins. Does an 11-2 UNLV team with a conference title win over a Boise team that would seemingly be a top-20 team in the CFP rankings land high enough in the committee’s final rankings that it gets the nod over the Sun Belt or American champs? The Rebels’ current price implies a 9% chance they get into the CFP. I’m absolutely backing Mullen at those odds.

Bet UNLV +1800 to make the Playoff at BetMGM

The Sleeper — James Madison

Tulane started 9-2 last season before losing 3 straight to end the year. Coach Jon Sumrall was heavily rumored to leave, but he re-upped with the Green Wave all while losing his quarterback to Duke and his star tailback to Oregon. In 2025, I think Tulane is a team to fade. There’s a decent chance the Sumrall-to-Kentucky narrative hijacks the Green Wave’s season and the Mensah/Hughes losses are a pretty big deal.

Blake Horvath is back to lead Navy, but I think Navy’s ceiling is “season wrecker for CFP hopefuls” and not necessarily “CFP hopeful.” Same goes for Army, which has to replace Bryson Daily, who just scored another rushing touchdown while you were reading. In large part, the American looks like a league that could cannibalize itself. It’s a group that lacks a truly elite team and has a ton of competitive depth in the upper half. A 10-3/9-4 champ emerging from this conference seems likely.

So I’m turning to the Sun Belt as the league most likely to produce a challenger to the Mountain West for the G5 auto-bid. And James Madison is the clear favorite to win the Sun Belt.

The Dukes went 9-4 last season and finished as the Sun Belt’s highest-rated team, according to SP+. They suffered 4 conference losses, which kept them out of SBC contention, but 2 of those losses were by 4 combined points.

James Madison will go as far as Alonza Barnett III takes it. And Barnett is a question mark heading into 2025, which makes this a buy-low option.

Barnett broke out with 2,598 passing yards, 442 rushing yards, and 33 total touchdowns last season. He completed 60% of his passes as a first-time starter and showed flashes of brilliance. He shredded North Carolina for 388 yards and 5 scores in Chapel Hill, posting a 96.7 QBR in a 70-50 win. (There was no defense played anywhere on North Carolina’s campus last year.) He had a bunch of clunkers mixed in, including back-to-back games with a QBR below 13.0 (out of 100) in October.

He injured his knee in the regular-season finale against Marshall, missed the bowl game after undergoing surgery in December, and then handled only non-contact work in the spring. James Madison head coach Bob Chesney brought in former Richmond passer Cam Coleman and former UNLV headline-creator Matthew Sluka.

James Madison has an early nonconference game at Louisville on Sept. 5, then heads into a bye, and returns against Liberty on the road. It gets Louisiana at home, has to play Marshall on the road, and hosts Washington State in late November. There are some landmines in the schedule, but if the Dukes ran the table in league play and only dropped the Louisville game, there’s a good chance they’ll be the biggest threat to the Mountain West champ.

Bet James Madison +1300 to make the Playoff at BetMGM

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.