The ‘Butterfly Effect’ from Notre Dame’s latest offensive line issue is bigger than you’d think
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The preseason models and the prognosticators and, perhaps most importantly, the betting markets absolutely love Notre Dame in 2025.
Never mind the fact Marcus Freeman has to replace his quarterback, Riley Leonard — a steely-eyed, even-tempered, metronome-like vet who guided the Fighting Irish to the College Football Playoff title game last season. Never mind the fact Freeman also had to replace vaunted defensive coordinator Al Golden this offseason, along with 2 All-American defensive linemen, a captain middle linebacker, and a Nagurski-winning safety.
The Irish are -190 at DraftKings to make the College Football Playoff. That implies a 65% probability. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Notre Dame projected as the sixth-best team in the country and forecasts 10.5 wins. And that’s precisely where BetMGM set the Irish win total. They have slightly better odds (+1400) than Alabama of winning the national championship.
Not so fast, my friend.
Another preseason injury to offensive lineman Charles Jagusah should force us to stop and consider. Though just 1 injury to 1 of 5 projected starters up front, the Butterfly Effect in South Bend reaches all across the country.
First, some context.
Notre Dame confirmed over the weekend that Jagusah, a redshirt sophomore, recently underwent surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a UTV accident.
The team announced that Jagusah’s prognosis was “favorable” after fracturing his left humerus. Depending on the severity of the fracture, there’s a 6-to-12-week timeline for the bone to heal, followed by physical therapy to regain strength and range of motion in the shoulder. We could be talking about a 3-to-4-month timeline before a full recovery. As a young athlete, Jagusah could certainly beat the timeline.
But this isn’t his first upper-body injury. Jagusah was penciled in to start at left tackle prior to last season, but a torn pectoral muscle in his right arm last August put him on the shelf for the entirety of the regular season. He didn’t make his season debut until injuries elsewhere opened up a spot at right guard in the CFP semifinal game against Penn State.
In total, he played 53 snaps against Penn State and then moved back to left tackle for the national championship game.
Jagusah was expected to start at right guard this season for the Irish.
Anthonie Knapp, who started at left tackle throughout the 2024 campaign, will likely be the Irish’s left tackle in 2025. But he missed most of spring ball as a result of ankle surgery following the CFP quarterfinal win over Georgia.
Billy Schrauth is the projected starting left guard. He played right guard to open last season but after an injury knocked him out of the Purdue game, Rocco Spindler took his spot at right guard for the rest of the season and Schrauth moved to left guard. Spindler transferred to Nebraska this offseason.
Ashton Craig is projected to start at center. He started Notre Dame’s first 3 games last fall before tearing his ACL against Purdue on Sept. 14. He was limited during spring ball as he recovers from that injury, replaced in the first team by 6-8 Sullivan Absher.
Aamil Wagner was an iron man for the Irish last season, playing a program-record 971 snaps — all at right tackle. He got a lighter workload in the spring as a result, but Guerby Lambert, who worked in at right tackle, tore his labrum in April and went on the shelf.
Notre Dame’s offensive line seems awfully paper-thin. Five-star freshman Will Black could factor in at tackle, but in the absence of injuries, he might not otherwise have a super extensive role on a contending team in the fall.
Now, consider Notre Dame will have a first-time starting quarterback in 2025.
Before coming to Notre Dame, Leonard had made 27 appearances with 21 starts in 3 seasons at Duke. He had close to 4,500 passing yards and more than 1,200 rushing yards in his career when he transferred to Notre Dame. His mistake-free play helped Notre Dame.
With Steve Angeli — Leonard’s primary backup last fall — entering the transfer portal in the spring, the Irish quarterback competition is down to CJ Carr and Kenny Minchey. Freeman said he would have named a starter in the spring if 1 guy clearly separated, but we’re approaching August with a competition still ongoing.
Minchey has 3 career pass attempts and 2 runs after signing with the program out of the 2023 class. Carr appeared in 1 game as a freshman last season before being shut down in September with an injury to his throwing elbow. (He did not have surgery and participated fully in the spring.)
Jeremiyah Love fought to stay healthy last season, and his proclivity for leaping over defenders is probably concerning to the Irish medical staff.
No pass-catcher had more than 600 receiving yards or more than 4 touchdowns last season.
SP+ projects this to be a top-10 offense next fall.
I’m… not entirely sold.
Notre Dame opens the 2025 season against Carson Beck and Miami at the Hard Rock Stadium.
Two weeks later, the Irish host Texas A&M. They play Arkansas in Fayetteville on Sept. 27. They play Boise State on Oct. 4.
We also have to consider that in 3 seasons under Freeman, Notre Dame has lost to Marshall at home, to a 4-4 (at the time) Clemson team, and to Northern Illinois at home. Notre Dame has lost games it shouldn’t.
The 2025 schedule is front-loaded. That doesn’t mix well with an offensive line that won’t be anywhere close to full strength and a quarterback that needs live reps to get comfortable. Whether it’s Carr or Minchey, inexperience-borne mistakes are going to happen. Shaky blocking up front will exacerbate the issue. And there’s no guarantee last year’s elite defense will carry over to this year just because a couple of standout corners are still around.
Texas A&M is a real team to watch in 2025.
The Aggies are seventh nationally in returning production, according to Connelly’s tracking. The offensive engine — quarterback Marcel Reed alongside tailbacks Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens — projects as a devastating run unit. When healthy, there aren’t many programs with a better 1-2 punch at tailback, and with Reed’s ability on the ground, the Aggies could play some grueling, ball-control games. A low-possession game with a couple of crucial mistakes/turnovers from the Irish is exactly what Notre Dame does not want when the Aggies come to town.
If A&M wins that game, the Aggies have a real shot to make the CFP.
Miami’s win total is set at 9.5, and with a Clemson-less schedule next fall, that number looks much more attainable with a season-opening win. Defensive tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. will be a problem for everyone, even a healthy Notre Dame. A rebuilt Miami secondary could be good. The Hurricanes might wind up leaning more toward defense.
There are 2 ways to read the Irish this offseason.
The “glass half full” approach: Last year’s title push came ahead of schedule. Twelve of the 20 defenders who played at least 200 snaps last year return. Two strong tailbacks return. A potentially great(house) receiver returns. A bunch of guys got experience on the line, to the point 2 starters transferring away from the team this offseason was met with a proverbial shrug.
The “glass half empty” approach: Notre Dame was highly dependent on long, mistake-free drives to score last season because its offense couldn’t consistently generate chunk plays, and it most got exactly what it needed. Without Leonard, there’s no guarantee that luck will continue. Churning out offensive possessions that feature minimal explosives while still resulting in touchdowns is one of the hardest things to do in college football. Drives longer than 7 plays see their point expectancy fall off a cliff.
Carr, who most assume will start, could be awesome. A smart quarterback with a great arm could step in and answer all of Notre Dame’s questions.
And if he doesn’t?
If he’s constantly under pressure?
If the things that broke Notre Dame’s way last season don’t do so again in 2025?
Depending on where you shop, there are some opportunities to fade Notre Dame while also playing to A&M/Miami futures. Notre Dame is a 3-point road favorite over Miami (via DraftKings). The market expectation is the Irish will start 2-0. Jagusah’s latest preseason injury reminds us nothing is ever clean with Notre Dame.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
