If you’re here, you find win probability as fascinating as I do. As we mentioned last week, you probably have an idea of which play had the biggest impact on who walked away victorious at a game’s conclusion. The SEC’s Week 4 contests show that unless it’s painfully obvious — sorry, Arkansas fans — you really can’t know for sure.
Last Saturday, the losing team in 5 of the 10 matchups involving SEC schools had the “most important” play of the game benefit their win probability. Perhaps this demonstrates that 1 play can doom you as much as it can save you. As a few SEC teams showed this week, you won’t have anything to worry about if you thoroughly dominate the opposition.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics.
Arkansas vs. Memphis (32-31 Memphis)
Play: 1:18 Q4, 2nd-and-2, Memphis 9-yard line. Mike Washington Jr. run for 2 yards to Memphis 7-yard line. FUMBLE, recovered by Chris Bracy (+66.5%).
The Razorbacks need to sage their whole campus. Their pair of losses this football season, combined with the OmaHogs’ College World Series disaster and the basketball team’s Sweet 16 meltdown, have made 2025 a year full of brutal defeats. A home game versus No. 22 Notre Dame (-3.5; ESPN Bet) simultaneously offers the chance for a major rebound and more heartbreak.
UAB vs. No. 15 Tennessee (56-24 Tennessee)
Play: 11:20 Q1, 1st-and-10, 50-yard line. Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yards to UAB 39-yard line (+0.4%).
Sports bettors may believe UAB’s last touchdown — which came in the final minute of regulation — was the most important play of this one. It kept the Vols from covering their 38.5-point spread, after all. But by win probability, the 11-yard completion that preceded Tennessee‘s second touchdown takes the cake.
No. 22 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma (24-17 Oklahoma)
Play: 7:12 Q4, 4th-and-6, Oklahoma 19-yard line. Oklahoma penalty: Defensive Pass Interference. Ball moved to Oklahoma 4-yard line. First down (+24.4% for Auburn).
There has been discourse on a number of plays from this game. The Sooners’ first touchdown, per SEC rules, should not have counted. An admission like that after the fact doesn’t provide much solace for the Tigers, who reasonably felt jibbed following the contest. Like Eli Drinkwitz vs. Kansas, Brent Venables got away with one. It will be interesting to see how this result impacts the CFP chase come November.
Tulane vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (45-10 Ole Miss)
Play: 12:54 Q1, 3rd-and-2, Tulane 46-yard line. Trinidad Chambliss run for 41 yards to the Tulane 5-yard line (+3.0%).
The Rebels flirted with disaster against the Green Wave in New Orleans 2 seasons ago before pulling away late for a 37-20 win. There was practically no drama this go-round for Lane Kiffin and Co., who had things sealed, for all intents and purposes, by halftime.
Northern Illinois vs. Mississippi State (38-10 Mississippi State)
Play: 14:53 Q2, 2nd-and-7, Mississippi State 24-yard line. Josh Holst pass complete to DeAree Rogers for 24 yards, touchdown. Northern Illinois 10-7 (+5.9% for Northern Illinois).
Northern Illinois was gunning for a massive road upset on Saturday, roughly a year after beating Notre Dame in South Bend. Jeff Lebby‘s crew weathered the storm, though, outscoring the Huskies 24-0 in the second half to remain unbeaten. If the Bulldogs can handle No. 15 Tennessee at home this weekend, things will get interesting quickly in Starkville.
South Carolina vs. No. 23 Missouri (29-20 Missouri)
Play: 11:26 Q2, 3rd-and-14, Missouri 49-yard line. LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 49 yards, touchdown. South Carolina 7-6 (+19.7% for South Carolina).
After beating the Gamecocks, Eli Drinkwitz made it no secret that the Tigers’ pass defense has been an issue so far this season. Mizzou was able to overcome that weakness last week, but will need to use this Saturday’s matchup with UMass to get things figured out before Alabama comes to town on Oct. 11.
Florida vs. No. 4 Miami (26-7 Miami)
Play: 2:05 Q3, 4th-and-3, Miami 45-yard line. DJ Lagway pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yards to Miami 40-yard line. First down (+8.5% for Florida).
The Gators’ defense is fighting hard for Billy Napier. Unfortunately, Florida‘s offense isn’t getting the job done. The Gators had only 7 first downs and posted just 141 total yards against the Hurricanes. The fact that one of their offense’s plays wound up having the biggest impact on win probability ironically proves Napier’s point about them being a dangerous team. They’ll try to find a solution over their bye week before battling Texas on Oct. 4.
RELATED: Want to bet on or against the Gators this year? Check out our list of the best Florida sports betting apps and get in on the fun!
Georgia State vs. No. 20 Vanderbilt (70-21 Vanderbilt)
Play: 10:24 Q1, 4th-and-7, Vanderbilt 34-yard line. Braeden McAlister 52-yard field goal GOOD. 3-0 Georgia State (+1.6% for Georgia State).
Do you think the Commodores remembered that they lost to the Panthers in 2024? Vanderbilt hadn’t scored 70 or more points in a literal century before hanging that number on Georgia State. Utah State is next up for Clark Lea‘s team, who will head to Tuscaloosa for a rematch with Alabama on Oct. 4.
Southeastern Louisiana vs. No. 3 LSU (56-10 LSU)
Play: 14:40 Q2, 4th-and-11, SE Louisiana 35-yard line. Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 17 yards to SE Louisiana 18-yard line. First down (+0.7%).
The Tigers led just 7-0 after the first quarter versus the Lions in Week 4. Had Nussmeier and Thomas not hooked up for this first down, LSU may not have taken a 2-score lead until the middle of the second quarter. The final point total was encouraging, but it feels like there’s still cause for concern ahead of this week’s trip to Ole Miss.
Sam Houston State vs. No. 8 Texas (55-0 Texas)
Play: 7:55 Q1, 2nd-and-17, Sam Houston State 39-yard line. Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 15 yards to Sam Houston State 24-yard line (+0.4%).
Longhorn fans needed to see Arch Manning perform up to the level his name — warranted or not — suggests he’s capable of vs. the Bearkats. Thankfully, he delivered, completing 18-of-21 passes (85.7%) for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns. Florida in Gainesville 2 weeks from now is a much different beast than winless Sam Houston State at night in Austin’s friendly confines, though. If Texas leaves The Swamp on Oct. 4 with a 3-2 record, it’s hard to imagine it’ll earn a College Football Playoff berth.
