The way the SEC keeps pumping out bangers, you’d think you’re listening to Jay Bilas talk about the Duke-North Carolina basketball rivalry: “It always delivers!“
We had our lightest slate of conference action since Week 6 to kick off November. But the quality — 5 different 1-possession games — made the quantity irrelevant.
Four of our most important plays this week had a double-digit percentage impact on who won the game. Five of them were turnovers or touchdowns. Naturally, the lone exception occurred on The Plains, where it felt like nobody wanted to score.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics. Rankings are from the Week 10 AP poll.
No. 9 Vanderbilt vs. No. 20 Texas (34-31 Texas)
Play: 15:00 Q1, 1st-and-10, Texas 25-yard line. Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 75 yards, touchdown. 7-0 Texas (+5.9%).
The Texas Longhorns needed all of 11 seconds to take a lead they wouldn’t relinquish vs. the Vanderbilt Commodores last Saturday. Texas, who debuted at No. 11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, would throw a serious wrench in things with a victory over Georgia in Week 12. Hopefully the bye week doesn’t quell all of Arch Manning’s momentum ahead of the trip to Athens.
No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida (24-20 Georgia)
Play: 4:36 Q4, 1st-and-10, Florida 36-yard line. Chauncey Bowens runs 36 yards, touchdown. 24-20 Georgia (+28.0%).
Kirby Smart‘s team has gutted out wins over Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss and Florida this year. Perhaps those triumphs are evidence of just how tough life is in SEC play. A contest in Starkville — with Texas looming — shapes up as a battle of similar ilk for Georgia. If the Bulldogs get caught peeking ahead, their CFP chances will face real jeopardy with the Longhorns and Georgia Tech still on the schedule.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (38-35 Mississippi State)
Play: 0:51 Q4, 4th-and-5, Arkansas 18-yard line. Blake Shapen pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 18 yards, touchdown. 38-35 Mississippi State (+66.8%).
Arkansas had a 97.2% win probability after sacking Blake Shapen at roughly the 11-minute mark of the fourth quarter in Week 10. The Razorbacks had a 90.9% chance at victory with 2:13 remaining in regulation. Mississippi State has fought valiantly all season long, and come up short so many times. This one felt great for Jeff Lebby and Co., who could make it 2 conference wins in a row on Saturday afternoon vs. Georgia.
South Carolina vs. No. 7 Ole Miss (30-14 Ole Miss)
Play: 7:56 Q3, 4th-and-16, South Carolina 47-yard line. Oscar Bird punt MUFFED by Jalon Kilgore, recovered by Andy Jaffe at South Carolina 13-yard line. First down Ole Miss (+9.7%).
The Rebels have no care for style points the rest of the way. If they win their games, they’ll be in the College Football Playoff. It’s easier said than done to not get caught up in all the noise surrounding Lane Kiffin‘s future, but the simpler they can keep their operating procedure, the better.
No. 18 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Tennessee (33-27 Oklahoma)
Play: 8:01 Q1, 1st-and-10, Oklahoma 24-yard line. Joey Aguilar sacked, FUMBLED, recovered by R Mason Thomas. R Mason Thomas returns 71 yards, touchdown. 7-7 Tie (+19.5%).
Tennessee had never lost in its “Dark Mode” uniforms before Week 10. To say Oklahoma may have saved its CFP hopes with this play — which came when Tennessee was on the verge of going up at least 10-0 on home turf — could be a massive understatement. If the Sooners can carry their momentum through their bye and parlay it into a win at Alabama, they’d (presumably) all but lock up a CFP spot. Note: ESPN FPI had a glitch and made the score of this game 19-13 (instead of 16-13) shortly before halftime. For that reason, we chose a play we know was unaffected by that mistake, even though multiple plays after show a larger win probability jump.
Kentucky vs. Auburn (10-3 Kentucky)
Play: 10:37 Q3, 3rd-and-11, midfield. Cutter Boley pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 32 yards to the Auburn 18-yard line. First down Kentucky (+11.2%).
Mark Stoops‘ Wildcats hadn’t won an SEC contest in quite some time prior to Saturday night. You could see how much it meant for him to get this victory afterward. Whether he remains in Lexington beyond this season is to be determined, but there’s no denying his status as the best coach in Kentucky history. If this is the end of the line, Big Blue Nation wouldn’t mind seeing him leave on a high note.
