It just means more in the SEC. Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean every week offers the most compelling action.
Four of Week 11’s 6 games involving an SEC team ended with 20+ point margins of victory. LSU and Alabama combined for less than 30 total points. Thankfully, we had Auburn-Vanderbilt to save us from a complete absence of competitive contests.
There are a couple buy games in Week 12 — one of which could be a barnburner (more on that later) — but we also get Oklahoma-Alabama and Texas-Georgia in Week 12. As teams fight to lock up their College Football Playoff spots, there’s real opportunity for drama to unfold. So, as always, keep the popcorn on standby.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics. Rankings are from the Week 11 College Football Playoff committee.
No. 5 Georgia vs. Mississippi State (41-21 Georgia)
Play: 14:42 Q2, 3rd-and-11, Mississippi State 28-yard line. Gunnar Stockton pass complete to Elviss Williams for 24 yards to Mississippi State 4-yard line. First down Georgia (+6.9%).
Kirby Smart‘s team had played with its food for 3-straight games before going to Starkville and winning in convincing fashion. Georgia still has an opportunity to reach the SEC Championship Game, but a loss to Texas in Week 12 would eliminate any hopes of another trip to Atlanta.
The Citadel vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (49-0 Ole Miss)
Play: 6:34 Q1, 3rd-and-1, Citadel 15-yard line. Kewan Lacy runs 15 yards, touchdown 14-0 Ole Miss (+0.1%).
No play in this game had greater than a 0.1% impact on the Rebels’ win probability. Their second touchdown moved the needle from 99.8% to 99.9%, where it sat until the final whistle, so it gets the nod for us here. The only thing Ole Miss could have done better in this game — for any bettors out there — is cover the 50-plus point spread.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 22 Missouri (38-17 Texas A&M)
Play: 0:57 Q2, 3rd-and-10, Missouri 42-yard line. Matt Zollers sacked by Daymoin Sanford. FUMBLE, recovered by Dalton Brooks, returned 26 yards to Missouri 2-yard line. First down Texas A&M (+7.7%).
The Tigers were missing starting quarterback Beau Pribula in this game, but were a desperate outfit, coming off a bye, playing at home. And Mike Elko‘s bunch thoroughly dominated anyway. Barring a Buckeyes loss, there may not be anything the Aggies can do to yank the No. 1 spot in the CFP rankings away from Ohio State. If they can beat Texas to end the regular season and (presumably) Alabama in the SEC championship, though, they’ll have a strong argument to be the bracket’s top dog.
Auburn vs. No. 16 Vanderbilt (45-38 Vanderbilt, OT)
Play: Overtime, Vanderbilt possession, 2nd-and-10, Auburn 25-yard line. Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 21 yards to Auburn 4-yard line. First down Vanderbilt (+29.4%).
Vanderbilt is 8-2 (4-2 SEC) because of this overtime win. The Commodores need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee in the final 2 weeks of the regular season — and get a little bit of help — to steal a College Football Playoff spot. If you’re rooting for Clark Lea and Co. to get in, you’re hoping Alabama and Georgia hold serve at home versus Oklahoma and Texas, respectively, this weekend. Wins by Pittsburgh (over Notre Dame) and Baylor (against Utah) would also aid Vandy’s cause.
LSU vs. No. 4 Alabama (20-9 Alabama)
Play: 6:01 Q4, 2nd-and-10, Alabama 45-yard line. Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 21 yards to the LSU 34-yard line. First down Alabama (+6.8%).
“You can throw out the record books between these 2 teams” is a cliche that could apply to nearly every major SEC rivalry, including this one. The Crimson Tide didn’t look dominant versus the Brian Kelly-less Tigers last Saturday — they were actually out-possessed by 3:38 — but held LSU’s moribund offense to 232 total yards. Perhaps they were peeking ahead to this weekend’s much more important matchup with Oklahoma.
Florida vs. Kentucky (38-7 Kentucky)
Play: 10:43 Q1, 3rd-and-12, UK 44-yard line. DJ Lagway pass INTERCEPTED by Ty Bryant, returned 17 yards to the Kentucky 49-yard line. First down Kentucky (+14.2%).
There may be no bigger indictment against Florida‘s football program than its recent performances vs. Kentucky. The Gators are 1-4 against the Wildcats in the past 5 seasons. This year’s 31-point loss is their largest in this “rivalry” since 1950 (40-6). Meanwhile, Mark Stoops‘ team continues fighting for him after its atrocious start. Kentucky still has a chance to become bowl-eligible, but this weekend’s battle with Tennessee Tech — a 10-0 FCS squad ranked No. 6 in the nation — is no gimme.
