Football is a game of inches. Oftentimes, 1 play is the difference between winning and losing. We saw that in multiple games involving SEC teams in Week 3. But which plays had the biggest impact on their teams emerging victorious?
You may think you know without a second thought, but it’s not always cut and dry. Thankfully, we have ESPN’s Win Probability charts to help us out. Here, you’ll find the single snap of football that helped each SEC school earn a win — or loss — in Week 3.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics.
No. 13 Oklahoma vs. Temple (42-3 Oklahoma)
Play: 9:36 Q1, 3rd-and-19, Temple 32-yard line. John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 23 yards to the Temple 9-yard line (+4.9%).
When you hold an 84.1% win probability at kickoff, it’s not necessarily going to take long to effectively seal the deal on victory. The Sooners scored a touchdown on their opening possession after converting here and never looked back against the Owls.
Wisconsin vs. No. 19 Alabama (38-14 Alabama)
Play: 8:53 Q1, 1st-and-10, Alabama 46-yard line. Danny O’Neil pass intercepted by Bray Hubbard, returned to Alabama 39-yard line (+4.3%).
Shockingly, the Crimson Tide had a larger win probability at kickoff (88.4%) than Oklahoma did against Temple. Following an early turnover on downs, Alabama‘s defense got the ball right back to its offense. The play boosted Kalen DeBoer and Co.’s win probability a shade more than the ensuing Germie Bernard TD run that put them on the board (+4.2%).
South Alabama vs. No. 24 Auburn (31-15 Auburn)
Play: 0:44 Q1, 3rd-and-4, South Alabama 30-yard line. Bishop Davenport pass intercepted by Keyron Crawford at South Alabama 33-yard line (+2.1%).
Auburn held a 93.3% win probability at kickoff against South Alabama. The Jaguars, out of the Sun Belt, fought hard at Jordan-Hare. However, turnovers ultimately proved to be their downfall. The Tigers notched 2 takeaways (and a turnover on downs) last Saturday. The first one, an interception in the opening quarter, set the stage for Jackson Arnold’s 6-yard scoring scamper. That touchdown gave Auburn a 2-possession lead that it never relinquished.
Louisiana vs. No. 25 Missouri (52-10 Mizzou)
Play: 8:26 Q1, 2nd-and-Goal, Louisiana 7-yard line. Ahmad Hardy runs 7 yards, touchdown. 7-0 Missouri (+0.9%).
There was never much drama in this one. The Missouri Tigers pounced on the Ragin’ Cajuns right out the gate, forcing a 3-and-out on their first 3 defensive possessions. They scored a touchdown on the following drive each time and led 21-0 at the 14:18 mark of the second quarter. Their first score added less than 1% to their win probability, but it wound up being the most pivotal play of their afternoon.
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No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee (44-41 Georgia, OT)
Play: 2:32 Q4, 4th-and-6, Tennessee 28-yard line. Gunnar Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yards, touchdown. Two-point try succeeds; 38-38 (+36.9%).
This was the first real barnburner of the week for any SEC team. Heck, it’s a game that may not be topped by any other conference matchup this season. There were more than 10 plays that impacted win probability by at least 10%, 5 of which swung things at least 20%. Overall, though, Georgia‘s game-tying score nudged out Max Gilbert’s missed field goal at the end of regulation (+29.8%) as the biggest difference-maker.
UTEP vs. No. 7 Texas (27-10 Texas)
Play: 0:01 Q2, 1st-and-Goal, UTEP 5-yard line. Arch Manning runs 5 yards, touchdown. 14-3 Texas (+1.5%).
There’s a reason the games are played. Prior to the season’s start, Texas looked like the runaway national champion. A month later, the Longhorns have just a 42.8% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. Arch Manning has one more game (vs. Sam Houston State) and a bye week before facing a Power 4 foe for the first time since facing Ohio State.
Alcorn State vs. Mississippi State (63-0 Mississippi State)
Play: 14:43 Q1, 2nd-and-10, Mississippi State 25-yard line. Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 75 yards, touchdown. 7-0 Mississippi State (+0.3%).
The Bulldogs, fresh off their victory over Arizona State, were 43.5-point favorites (ESPN Bet) over the Braves in this one. They had a 99.5% chance of winning before this play, and never dipped below 99.8% afterward.
Arkansas vs. No. 17 Ole Miss (41-35 Ole Miss)
Play: 1:52 Q4, 2nd-and-4, Ole Miss 27-yard line. Taylen Green pass complete to Jalen Brown for 3 yards. Jalen Brown fumbles, recovered by Wydett Williams Jr. (+32.1%).
The Razorbacks and Rebels alternated scores throughout the first half. Ole Miss started the parade and went into the locker room with a 31-28 halftime edge. The first 10 points of the second half proved to be enough for the win once the Rebel defense forced the game’s lone turnover.
Florida vs. No. 3 LSU (20-10 LSU)
Play: 8:08 Q3, 3rd-and-18, LSU 49-yard line. DJ Lagway pass intercepted by Dashawn Spears, returned 58 yards, touchdown. 20-10 LSU (+17.7%).
When you intercept 5 passes in a game, you’re going to go home happy (unless you’ve thrown 6). Spears got his hands on LSU‘s third interception of DJ Lagway and found pay dirt, giving the Tigers a 2-possession lead. It wasn’t the prettiest game overall for Brian Kelly‘s offense, but a win is a win.
Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky (48-23 Kentucky)
Play: 15:00 Q1, 1st-and-10, Eastern Michigan 25-yard line. Noah Kim pass intercepted by Daveren Rayner, returned to the Eastern Michigan 10-yard line (+2.0%).
Mark Stoops‘ team — who held a 95% chance win probability at opening kickoff — started hot versus the Eagles. Rayner’s interception led to a touchdown 2 plays later. Then, on the next EMU drive, the Wildcats forced a turnover on downs. There were bigger stretches in this game where Kentucky churned out small win probability gains on a regular basis, but this play was the most important on a single-snap basis.
RELATED: Check out the best Kentucky sportsbook promos ahead of the Wildcats’ trip to South Carolina in Week 5!
No. 16 Texas A&M vs. No. 8 Notre Dame (41-40 Texas A&M)
Play: 0:13 Q4, 4th-and-Goal, Notre Dame 11-yard line. Marcel Reed pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 11 yards, touchdown. 41-40 Texas A&M (+73.6%).
It’s dealer’s choice on whether this game or Georgia-Tennessee was the best game of the weekend. A glimpse of the win probability chart through the final minute of regulation shows just how much 1 play impacts who wins and loses a contest. In the end, though, Reed and Boerkircher teamed up to steal one for the Aggies and potentially doom the Fighting Irish’s CFP chances.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (31-7 Vanderbilt)
Play: 10:48 Q3, 2nd-and-5, South Carolina 44-yard line. Jamezell Lassiter runs for 44 yards, touchdown. 21-7 Vanderbilt (+11.5%).
Gamecock fans would probably argue that the most impactful play of this game was Langston Patterson’s targeting foul on LaNorris Sellers. We’re not oblivious to that, but there’s no reflection of Sellers’ injury in ESPN’s win probability (we admittedly could not determine if it’s designed to account for such developments in real time). Regardless, the play with the second-biggest impact on win — Diego Pavia’s 5-yard TD pass to Junior Sherrill with 1:56 remaining in the first half (+10.7%) — came before Sellers left the game.
