How do you follow up an SEC-best 8 conference games in Week 8? By rolling out 7 barnburners in Week 9.
Okay, fine: the nightcaps weren’t competitive beyond halftime. We’ll give you that. The opening quintet of games, though? Terrific. Each of them wound up with a single-digit point margin. Three of them were true nail-biters that featured touchdowns in the final 2 minutes of regulation. There were special teams and defensive touchdowns all over the place.
We’ve been blessed with 2 straight weekends of fantastic football. The Week 10 schedule is back to just 6 games, but all of them are conference matchups. While you prepare for a strong Saturday of tailgating, here’s the most important play of each SEC team’s Week 9 contest.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics.
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Oklahoma (34-26 Ole Miss)
Play: 14:04 Q2, 3rd-and-3, Oklahoma 24-yard line. John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 76 yards, touchdown. Game tied 10-10 (+17.5% for Oklahoma).
The Rebels played great complementary football in Norman. They out-possessed the Sooners by more than 11 minutes (35:36-24:24) and delivered a strong fourth quarter, learning from their mistakes against Georgia in Week 8. Now, as long as it avoids losing to inferior foes the rest of the way, Ole Miss will be in the College Football Playoff. The game’s lone turnover — a fumble by Sategna III on a punt return — added 17.2% to Ole Miss’ win probability.
Auburn vs. Arkansas (33-24 Auburn)
Play: 9:15 Q4, 3rd-and-5, Arkansas 43-yard line. Taylen Green pass INTERCEPTED by Rayshawn Pleasant, returned 49 yards, touchdown. 2-point conversion is GOOD. 27-24 Auburn (+42.5%).
When Auburn took a 10-0 lead in this game, we wondered how the Tigers would manage to blow it in the end. Then, when Arkansas snagged a pick-6 (+31.5%) to grab a 21-10 advantage right before halftime, we wondered how the Razorbacks would do so. It has been that type of season for both of these teams; Arkansas’s 4 giveaways — to Auburn’s 1 — made the difference. The Razorbacks’ turnover differential against FBS opponents this season? Negative-10.
No. 4 Alabama vs. South Carolina (29-22 South Carolina)
Play: 1:39 Q4, 2nd-and-4, South Carolina 36-yard line. LaNorris Sellers runs 2 yards to South Carolina 38-yard line, FUMBLES. Recovered by Tim Keenan III. First down Alabama (+32.6%).
South Carolina had an 81.4% win probability with 9:04 remaining in regulation on Saturday. Shane Beamer‘s team also had a 68.4% win probability after stopping Alabama for a loss of 2 yards on 1st-and-Goal at the 2:46 mark of the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks lost in regulation anyway. The Crimson Tide didn’t play close to their best football in Week 8, but got the job done. They feel inevitable right now and may only improve after their much-deserved bye to open November.
No. 15 Missouri vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt (17-10 Vanderbilt)
Play: 3:51 Q3, 1st-and-10, Vanderbilt 20-yard line. Makhilyn Young rushes 80 yards, touchdown. Vanderbilt 10-3 (+24.8%).
The Commodores lost to the Tigers on a missed field goal in overtime last season. They turned the tables this go-round, taking the first play after a Mizzou field goal flub to the end zone. Vanderbilt is now the higher-ranked team for its Week 10 clash with Texas on Saturday. Note: ESPN’s win probability says Missouri gained 28.6% win probability on their last-second Hail Mary that got the Tigers to the 1-yard line. Time expired on this play, so we believe this is a glitch.
No. 22 Texas vs. Mississippi State (45-38 Texas, OT)
Play: 1:47 Q4, 4th-and-1, Mississippi State 22-yard line. Ryan Niblett returns a punt 79 yards, touchdown. Tied 38-38 (+39.4%).
Mississippi State led Texas 38-21 with 11:40 left in this Week 9 affair. Its win probability at that time? 98.6%. Unfortunately, every Bulldog fan’s internal temperature rose to a much higher level than that when the game was over. Steve Sarkisian‘s seat had a similar reaction — but the opposite way, of course — thanks to the Longhorns’ miracle victory. Texas will need to knock off 2 of Vanderbilt (No. 9), Georgia (No. 5) and Texas A&M (No. 3) to have any shot at a CFP bid. Difficult? Yes. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Nothing in college football is.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 20 LSU (49-25 Texas A&M)
Play: 8:47 Q3, 4th-and-14, LSU 19-yard line. KC Concepcion returns a punt 79 yards, touchdown. Texas A&M 28-18 (+14.4%).
Do you think games against Brian Kelly are personal for Tommy Moffitt? The former LSU strength and conditioning coach was fired by the Tigers’ recently dismissed head coach — as soon as Kelly took the job — after 2 decades of service in Baton Rouge. He came to College Station in 2024 (and brought a tackling dummy to practice last week). Since his hiring, the Aggies have beaten LSU twice in 2 tries by a combined 39 points. Vengeance is a powerful thing, and Moffitt got more than a measure of it by assisting Kelly’s butt out the door.
No. 11 Tennessee vs. Kentucky (56-34 Tennessee)
Play: 6:56 Q1, 3rd-and-10, Tennessee 44-yard line. Cutter Boley’s pass INTERCEPTED by Edrees Farooq, returned 45 yards, touchdown. 14-0 Tennessee (+8.3%).
The Volunteers took just 79 seconds to score their first touchdown against Kentucky. Joey Aguilar threw for 3 scores — and 396 yards — while Tennessee running backs scampered past the goal line 4 times. Tennessee’s defense even got in on the scoring parade. Josh Heupel used a “get right” spot to do exactly that. On the other sideline, Cutter Boley does seem to have promise. Big Blue Nation doesn’t have any laurels to rest on other than that amidst what may (or may not) be Mark Stoops‘ final season in Lexington.
