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Winning college football games is hard. Any coach will tell you that.
Doing it on a consistent basis is even more difficult. Especially given the uncertainties of transfer portal turnover and NIL poaching.
No one knows that better than Florida State.
The Seminoles appeared to be on the fast track toward regaining their status as a top-tier national program by going undefeated during the 2023 regular season and winning the ACC championship. All it took was a few portal whiffs and some other stumbles to send them tumbling back down to the bottom of the mountain.
FSU won 11 fewer games in 2024 than in 2023. That’s how fast it can happen.
While the Seminoles’ case was extreme, they’re not the only ones who suffered a drop-off this season. NC State, which was picked to finish 4th in the ACC’s preseason poll, slipped from 9 wins to 6 and finished tied for 10th in a 17-team pack.
Who are the most likely ACC candidates to suffer a setback and win at least 3 fewer games in 2025?
Here are 3 teams to watch:
Syracuse
2024 record: 10-3
Like a winter squall rolling off Lake Ontario, Fran Brown stormed into Syracuse and announced his presence with authority. The former Georgia assistant injected an immediate jolt of energy into a perpetually stagnant program with his infectious enthusiasm and vision.
And he didn’t just talk a good game. The new coach backed up his swagger by attracting a stellar transfer class, highlighted by franchise quarterback Kyle McCord, then parlayed all that talent into a 10-3 record that included wins against ranked opponents UNLV and Miami.
Now comes the hard part. Doing it again.
Brown won’t have McCord, who entered the NFL Draft after setting school records for completions, passing yardage and touchdowns. Nor will he have leading rusher LeQuint Allen, 1,000-yard receiver Jackson Meeks and leading tackler Justin Barron, among others. The Orange will also be tested by a much more challenging schedule that starts with a neutral site game against Tennessee in Atlanta and includes road tests at Clemson, SMU, Miami and Notre Dame.
A drop-off seems almost inevitable. The only question is how much.
SMU
2024 record: 11-3
Like the Orange, Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs are going to have a tough time topping the success they achieved in their ACC debut. They went 8-0 in league play, battled Clemson even until the final seconds of the conference championship game and earned an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff.
But even though star quarterback Kevin Jennings is back, most of the offensive weapons surrounding him have moved on. It’s a list that includes running back Brashard Smith and SMU’s top 5 receivers. And the attrition is almost as rampant on defense, with edge rushers Elijah Roberts and Jahfari Harvey, and linebackers Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker also gone.
Lashlee has already made strides toward replenishing the ranks by putting together a top-30 recruiting class. But he still has work to do in the transfer portal to add more immediate help.
And while the schedule isn’t quite as favorable in 2025, it’s also not as challenging as the one facing Syracuse. Besides a trip to Clemson on Oct. 18, their 2 toughest games – against Miami on Nov. 1 and Louisville on Nov. 22 – are at home. While a drop-off from 11 wins to 8 will seem like a lot, it would still make for a successful season.
Duke
2024 record: 9-4
It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that Manny Diaz has spared no expense in an attempt to build on his successful first season. The collective supporting his program shelled out a reported $8 million for a 2-year commitment from Tulane’s Darian Mensah, the top-rated quarterback on the transfer portal.
Mensah’s arrival is part of an offensive overhaul precipitated by the departure of last year’s record-setting quarterback, Maalik Murphy, who is now at Oregon State. The team also lost top receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol and leading rusher Star Thomas.
Diaz picked up where his predecessor Mike Elko left off by winning 9 games in 2024. It was Duke’s 3rd straight winning season. The Blue Devils haven’t had 4 consecutive winning seasons since the early 1960s. In order to extend that streak to 4, the Blue Devils will have to do it against an upgraded nonconference schedule that replaces Northwestern with a more formidable Big Ten opponent, Illinois, and includes a trip to New Orleans to take on Mensah’s old team, Tulane, to go along with ACC road tests at Clemson, North Carolina and Syracuse.
With the addition of Mensah and 6 other transfers, Diaz is making positive strides toward meeting the challenge and maintaining his program’s recent success. But like happiness, money can’t buy wins.
Those still have to be earned.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
