Way-too-early Top 25: Every team’s most important game in 2025

Coaches are boring. The most important game is the next one. No single game means more than another. No individual team matters more than another. But we know those platitudes are just that. Players get up for big games. Careers are judged in big games.

As dozens of teams open the 2025 season hoping to reach the College Football Playoff, certain games on their schedules are simply must-win. We know based on last season’s CFP selection committee that 3 losses are tough to overcome, and we know that making a conference title game is extremely valuable.

So, here’s a look at the most important games for every team in my Way-Too-Early Top 25.

No. 25 Michigan Wolverines

Game: at Oklahoma (Sept. 6)

Why it matters: Many believe the Sooners significantly upgraded their roster and their coaching staff this offseason. They’ll have a new quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and Brent Venables back at the controls of the defense. And Norman will be absolutely rocking in Week 2 when Michigan comes to town. If the Wolverines are going to return to Big Ten contention — and thus return to CFP consideration — they have to get some confidence rolling early for their first-year quarterback. Michigan has road games at Nebraska, USC, and Michigan State next fall. The matchup with Ohio State is in Ann Arbor. That game is the most important to any Michigan fan, but if we’re talking about the CFP, a nonconference road win against an SEC team would be a massive résumé builder. More than anything, though, I just think it’s important for Bryce Underwood. Venables and the Oklahoma defense will be looking to give Underwood a hellish afternoon. A good showing will be a springboard.

No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies

Game: vs. South Carolina (Nov. 15)

Why it matters: The Aggies’ closing stretch is pretty treacherous. From Oct. 18 on, Texas A&M plays 4 of its final 6 on the road. That includes trips to LSU, Mizzou, and Texas. If South Carolina proves to be a legitimate CFP contender, and Alabama is once again a CFP contender, those final 3 weeks of the season are going to provide separation in the SEC. A&M doesn’t face Alabama or Ole Miss, so getting a head-to-head victory over another at-large hopeful would be huge. A&M will likely be carrying multiple losses when the Gamecocks come to town. We saw what happened to 3-loss SEC squads last season.

No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats

Game: at Utah (Nov. 22)

Why it matters: The Wildcats went into the month of November last fall at 7-1. They faded down the stretch, dropping 3 of their final 4 regular-season games to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game. The Big 12 might once again be congested at the top, with a ton of quality but no clear-cut elite team that can run away with the conference. I’d include Utah in the upper tier this upcoming season, and a trip to Salt Lake City in the penultimate week of the regular season looks like it might have major implications on the title picture. Utah lost 2 home November games last season; before that, the Utes had gone 10-1 in home November games from 2018-23, with the only loss coming during the COVID season in 2020. 

No. 22 Tennessee Volunteers

Game: at Florida (Nov. 22)

Why it matters: Florida will play a home game against Mississippi State on Oct. 18. Gator fans won’t see another game in The Swamp until Tennessee comes to town more than a month later. Florida will be coming off consecutive road trips to Kentucky and Ole Miss. Tennessee should have an advantage. The Vols are off the weekend of Nov. 8 and they host New Mexico State on Nov. 15. Tennessee plays Georgia and Alabama, but it doesn’t play another top-tier SEC team. If the Vols are going to get back to the CFP, they need a win in The Swamp. Tennessee hasn’t won a game in Gainesville since 2003 — a streak of 10 straight defeats.

No. 21 Miami Hurricanes

Game: at SMU (Nov. 1)

Why it matters: The Hurricanes could be done and dusted by the time November comes around. After the trip to Dallas, Miami faces Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt. None of those teams are going to move the needle for the selection committee. Miami also gets Notre Dame, Florida, and Louisville all at home. Going on the road and beating last year’s runner-up in the ACC will be necessary for any Playoff push. Should Miami lose, it won’t have another opportunity to impress.

No. 20 Iowa State Cyclones

Game: vs. Arizona State (Nov. 1)

Why it matters: Last year’s Big 12 title game participants meet in Jack Trice Stadium to open the month of November. Arizona State punked Iowa State to win the conference last year. This won’t just have title implications for 2025, it’ll be a major revenge spot for the Cyclones.

No. 19 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Game: vs. BYU (Nov. 8)

Why it matters: November should be wild in the Big 12 next fall. For Texas Tech, this spot is a must-have. The Red Raiders spent beaucoup dollars this offseason to put themselves in a position to challenge for the CFP. They have road games at Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State. The only Big 12 contender that comes to Lubbock is BYU. Tech can’t afford to drop this game if it wants a spot in Arlington.

No. 18 Louisville Cardinals

Game: vs. Clemson (Nov. 14)

Why it matters: The Cardinals close out the season with 7 games in 7 weeks. The 3-week stretch to finish things out will be challenging, but Louisville could realistically head into the matchup with Clemson with just 1 loss… or less. Louisville feels like a dark horse in the ACC race. What better way to announce itself as a full-blown contender than knocking off the champ?

No. 17 BYU Cougars

Game: at Texas Tech (Nov. 8)

Why it matters: The Cougars go to Arizona, host Utah, go to Iowa State, and then go to Lubbock. There’s a bye week before the trip to Tech, which feels huge. BYU could be a little beat up by this point. Utah and Iowa State in back-to-back weeks figures to be physically demanding. And the matchup with Tech could matter greatly in the Big 12 title discussion.

No. 16 Indiana Hoosiers

Game: at Oregon (Oct. 11)

Why it matters: In all likelihood, Indiana won’t have a second consecutive dream season. That doesn’t mean the Hoosiers are about to fall off. They have another weak nonconference slate, so the opening salvo in Big Ten play will be informative. But even then, IU has games against Illinois and Iowa. Neither has Ohio State/Notre Dame talent. Oregon does. And if the Hoosiers want to be taken seriously in 2025, they have to fare better against the rosters that are loaded with blue-chip talent. If IU goes to Eugene and gets handled, there’s no hope for a return to the CFP. 

No. 15 SMU Mustangs

Game: vs. Louisville (Nov. 22)

Why it matters: The ACC’s scheduling issue last season was that none of its top teams played each other in the regular season. That won’t be an issue in 2025. SMU faces Clemson, Miami, and Louisville. The Cards play Clemson and Miami, too. The ACC title picture could be pretty crowded in late November. This could be an ACC/CFP elimination game.

No. 14 Ole Miss Rebels

Game: vs. LSU (Sept. 27)

Why it matters: The Tigers are 7-2 against Ole Miss over the last 9 years. Last year’s win in Baton Rouge came in overtime, and it came back to bite the Rebels in the rear end. Ole Miss had a strong case to make the CFP, but 3 losses were too many for the committee to consider. The loss to Kentucky to close out September was an eye sore. Ole Miss was really wasteful in that game after breezing through a light nonconference slate. The opening month of the season will test Ole Miss a bit more next fall, and that’ll be important. LSU is pushing for a CFP spot and possibly an SEC title game appearance. The Rebels can prove they’re still a force to be reckoned with in the SEC with a victory here. We’ll find out what Austin Simmons is made of.

No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini

Game: vs. Ohio State (Oct. 11)

Why it matters: Illinois didn’t come close to Penn State or Oregon. Wins over Nebraska and Michigan were nice, but the poor performances against the Big Ten’s elite showed quite definitively that Illinois wasn’t in that upper tier. If the Illini want to be taken seriously, they have to give Ohio State a game.  

No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks

Game: vs. Alabama (Oct. 25)

Why it matters: South Carolina lost to Alabama by 2 points on the road last season. The Gamecocks pushed the Crimson Tide to the brink, but couldn’t make them pay for a botched onside kick in the closing minute. LaNorris Sellers lost 2 fumbles and was picked off in the game. A better showing is a must. 

No. 11 Florida Gators

Game: vs. Texas (Oct. 4)

Why it matters: Another season, another ridiculous schedule for Florida. The Gators will play LSU, Miami, and Texas A&M all on the road before classes reach midterms. Unless this young team is going to show wisdom beyond its years and ball out on the road, The Swamp has to be the equalizer. The prospect of 3 straight losses — at LSU, at Miami, Texas — before the season even gets going would immediately end the momentum Billy Napier has built. But maybe there’s an opportunity waiting when Texas visits. The Longhorns open at Ohio State before 3 straight games against overmatched competition. They’ll be tested early, then not again for a month. The trip to Gainesville also comes 1 week before Red River. 

No. 10 Arizona State Sun Devils

Game: at Utah (Oct. 11)

Why it matters: Arizona State has 1 win in its last 5 trips to Salt Lake City. But this meeting between old Pac-12 peers comes off a bye week-plus. Arizona State is scheduled to play TCU on a Friday, then go on a bye, then head to Salt Lake City. Utah has a bye before the matchup, so there won’t really be a rest advantage, but Kenny Dillingham gets ample time to plan for Morgan Scalley’s defense, which has held ASU under 28 points in 5 straight meetings. I think this game will tell us what kind of ceiling ASU has in 2025. 

No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Game: vs. Texas A&M (Sept. 13)

Why it matters: Notre Dame won in College Station last season and it was a major part of the Irish’s CFP résumé. Notre Dame has the opener against Miami, a trip to Fayetteville to face Arkansas, and the annual battle with USC, but nothing else really moves the needle. A&M might be the best team Notre Dame faces all year. 

No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide

Game: at Georgia (Sept. 27)

Why it matters: Alabama won a barn-burner in Tuscaloosa last season, but it almost gave the game away in the second half. And everything it did after that victory rusted the shine on first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer. Alabama shouldn’t struggle with Florida State or Wisconsin. UL-Monroe should be over at halftime. A trip to Georgia will be the first real test, and folks in Tuscaloosa are antsy. Things will be tense if Alabama loses this game. The expectations are what they are.

No. 7 Oregon Ducks

Game: at Penn State (Sept. 27)

Why it matters: Oregon won’t face Ohio State or Michigan in the regular season. It won’t play Illinois either. Though it happens in September, this meeting might have Big Ten title game implications. But, more than anything else, we’ll get 2 major things with the Ducks here. First, can they stop the run any better? Second, does Dante Moore have it? The presumed starting quarterback for the Ducks has huge shoes to fill, following in the footsteps of Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. Oregon has had a remarkably high floor at the quarterback spot for 3 years running. Happy Valley will chew Oregon up if Moore isn’t up to the standard or if Lupoi hasn’t fixed the ground defense.

No. 6 LSU Tigers

Game: at Clemson (Aug. 30)

Why it matters: Did you know LSU hasn’t won a season-opener since its national championship season in 2019? Did I mention Brian Kelly is 0-3 in season-openers as the LSU head coach? With a top-tier quarterback coming back, key playmakers on the defense, and a massive transfer portal haul, Kelly has zero excuses in 2025. He has to make the CFP. Opening on the road at Clemson makes that all the more challenging. A season-opening W is a must.

No. 5 Texas Longhorns

Game: at Georgia (Nov. 15)

Why it matters: Texas played Georgia at home and got smacked. A sleepwalking Bulldogs pass-rush suddenly roared to life against a pair of NFL tackles and not even 3 first-half giveaways from Georgia mattered. Texas trailed 23-0 at the half and lost by 2 scores. With another light SEC schedule, another loss to Georgia will open Texas up to some uncomfortable questions.

No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs

Game: vs. Texas (Nov. 15)

Why it matters: Even though Georgia won both meetings with Texas last season and captured another SEC title, some are ready to anoint Texas as the new king of the SEC. I suspect this matchup will mean something to Kirby Smart. It might also mean a great deal more in the CFP discussion. Georgia might be carrying a loss or 2 into the matchup. 

No. 3 Clemson Tigers

Game: at Louisville (Nov. 14)

Why it matters: We saw Clemson drop a marquee opener to an SEC team last season and still rebound. The LSU game just doesn’t mean as much to Dabo Swinney as it does to Brian Kelly. But, depending on the result of that game, the trip to Louisville in mid-November could mean everything. Clemson could be working on an unbeaten season and walk into a hornet’s nest. Clemson could be facing an ACC title elimination game. 

No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions

Game: at Ohio State (Nov. 1) 

Why it matters: Did you know Ohio State has won 8 straight against Penn State? James Franklin beat the Buckeyes in 2016 en route to a Big Ten title. Since, the Nittany Lions have been beaten by more than a touchdown in 5 of the 8 meetings.

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Game: at Michigan (Nov. 29)

Why it matters: After Michigan beat Ohio State yet again and a benches-clearing fight broke out at midfield, U-M running back Kalel Mullings said on national TV that Ohio State needed to learn how to lose. Michigan has been Ohio State’s exclusive teacher in that regard. The Buckeyes have 6 regular-season losses over the last 4 years. Four of them have come against Michigan. There probably isn’t a single game on any other FBS schedule that means more than the Michigan game means to Ryan Day and the Buckeyes in 2025.