Week 1 SEC Primer: Better late than never, Arch Manning’s time finally arrives in Texas’ revenge bid at Ohio State

Everything you need to know about the Week 1 SEC slate, all in one place. Betting odds are provided by BetMGM unless noted. The • denotes Matt Hinton’s ATS pick. Last season, Hinton finished 103-25 straight-up (.804 winning percentage) and 77-48 vs. spread (.616 winning percentage) in SEC games.

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Game of the Week: Texas at Ohio State (-1.5)

The stakes

Incalculable. Put your calculator away! What are you doing with it in the first place? It’s of no use to you here. The magnitude of Ohio State-Texas is beyond the scope of ordinary math, science or engineering.

Truly, what more could you ask for from a season opener? Playoff Implications. Heisman Implications. Two name-brand programs in the prime of their respective championship windows. The defending national champs on one side, the No. 1 team in the preseason polls on the other. Two of the gold-star rosters in the college game. Two massively hyped, 5-star quarterbacks embarking on their journeys as QB1. The most talented player in America getting another crack at the only defense that shut him down in 2024.

Their last meeting, a 28-14 Ohio State win in the College Football Playoff semifinal in January, was a 60-minute battle decided on one of the most dramatic plays in CFP history. Fox, which is airing the rematch in its “Big Noon” time slot — Texas actually denied Ohio State’s request to move the kickoff to Sunday night — has been billing it as the “biggest opener EVER,” which may clear legal, actually. It’s the first pitting 2 teams ranked in the top 3 in the AP poll, at least, with the whole “Playoff rematch” angle to boot. The winner is a lock to wake up on Sunday morning ranked No. 1, with the inside track to a top seed.

And the loser? Not nearly as big a loser as they would have been in the past. Historically, landing on the wrong side on a marquee nonconference tilt is a potentially season-killing event for any aspiring contender — which probably goes a long way toward explaining why the list is short enough for a game in 2025, the 76th year the AP has published a preseason poll, to jump directly to the top. The expanded Playoff changed the incentive for scheduling ambitiously at the front of the schedule by dramatically lowering the cost of a single loss, especially against a fellow contender.

When CFP skeptics complain about expansion “ruining the regular season,” this is what they mean: Rather than suffering a knockout blow to its championship prospects, or even, like, a mild concussion, the loser can limp away (assuming a reasonably competitive effort) with all of its goals and most of its margin for error still intact. The hype, from this perspective, amounts to sound and fury, signifying … well, not nothing, but certainly a lot less than it used to.

Of course, without the possibility of redemption, such heavyweight collisions are a lot less likely to ever appear on the schedule in the first place. Is it better for the sanctity of the regular season if Ohio State and Texas stick to scheduling, say, Akron and Rice because the stakes are too high to risk an unnecessary L? It’s going to take some getting used to for the college audience to start watching matchups like this one the way NFL fans watch regular-season games between Super Bowl contenders: As important measuring sticks and data points when it comes to seeding, not definitive statements that have the potential to make or break the entire season. There will be plenty of time for that later. For now, the spectacle and the performances will have to speak for themselves.

The stat: 3 yards

That was Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith‘s output against Texas in January’s CFP semifinal, when the Longhorns held Buckeyes’ freshman phenom to a single catch on a pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage. That represented a season-low, obviously, by far. Excluding that game, Smith averaged 87.2 ypg for the year on 17.3 yards per catch, marks he matched or exceeded in each of OSU’s other three Playoff wins.

In general, Texas kept the lid on, limiting all Ohio State wideouts to a long gain of 18 yards. (Memorably, the Buckeyes’ longest reception came not to a wide receiver, but on a screen pass to RB Tre’Veyon Henderson that caught the ‘Horns’ entire defense with its pants down, resulting in a 75-yard touchdown just before halftime.) Still, the void got filled: With all eyes on Smith, OSU’s two other starting receivers, Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka, combined for 138 yards on a dozen catches, nine of which gained first downs. Tate, in particular, took advantage of the opportunity, finishing with career highs for targets (9) and receptions (7). Egbuka’s exit for the next level left Tate at no. 2 on the call sheet in 2025 — a lucrative position in its own right— and blue-chip sophomore Brandon Inniss to fill Egbuka’s shoes in the slot. But there is no doubt who’s no. 1, or how urgent the Buckeyes are to keep him involved.

The big question: Which quarterback meets the moment?

Arch Manning needs no introduction. Between his exhaustively documented recruitment and perennially clickable last name, he’s as familiar as any face in the college game despite having taken a grand total of 260 snaps over his first two seasons on campus. What little we did get to see of his potential in 2024 was convincing enough that, following Manning’s brief turn in relief of an injured Quinn Ewers in September, Steve Sarkisian was forced to defend Ewers’ continued presence at the top of the depth chart on a weekly basis even as the team continued to win. By the end of the regular season, it was an open secret that Ewers was on his way out despite middling reviews as a pro prospect; by the end of Texas’ CFP loss to Ohio State, which ended with back-to-back Ewers turnovers, the question had effectively answered itself.

Strictly in terms of name recognition, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is obscure by comparison. As a prospect, though, Sayin was about as touted as they come, arriving as the consensus No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 class. After initially signing with Alabama, he reconsidered following Nick Saban’s retirement and portaled out to Columbus, where he spent last season redshirting behind Will Howard. Unlike Arch, Sayin has yet to inspire a cult following, or even to take a meaningful college snap. But the expectations in an offense that has consistently cultivated Heisman-caliber QBs under Ryan Day are no less lofty. The learning curve ended the moment he was anointed the starter.

The key matchup: Texas OTs Trevor Goosby/Brandon Baker vs. Ohio State DEs Caden Curry/Kenyatta Jackson Jr.

Last time around, the collision between Texas’ o-line and Ohio State’s pass rush was one of the most anticipated matchups of the postseason. The Buckeyes won it in a landslide: Per Pro Football Focus, Quinn Ewers faced pressure on 24 of his 44 drop-backs, including 4 sacks and the decisive strip-and-score that effectively ended his college career.

With the exception of Texas guard DJ Campbell, every other starter on both sides of the line of scrimmage in that game has moved on. Three of Texas’ 4 departing o-line starters were drafted in April, headlined by left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. at No. 9 overall; all 4 of Ohio State’s d-line starters were drafted, leaving behind a group whose résumés still begin with their recruiting rankings. Jackson and Curry were both top-100 prospects in the 2022 class who have spent the past 3 seasons biding their time behind the highly decorated Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, whom they’ve now replaced at the top of the rotation. Goosby, the first tackle off the bench last year as a redshirt freshman, and Baker, a 5-star sophomore, will be under heavy scrutiny as they settle in as the Longhorns’ bookends for the foreseeable future. The fate of the crown jewel is quite literally in their hands.

The verdict …

As defending champs go, Ohio State is a wild card. The Buckeyes have question marks on both sides of the ball, beginning at quarterback and extending to eight new starters on defense. They also have arguably the 2 best returning players in college football, Jeremiah Smith and DB Caleb Downs, at the top of a typically stacked roster. Texas is breaking in fewer new faces, especially if you count Manning as a known quantity behind center rather than as a little-used redshirt sophomore making his first career road start in one of the most hostile environments in the country. The early kickoff might take a little bit of the edge off the home crowd compared to a primetime rager. Still, as a rule winning in the Horseshoe under any circumstances is a “believe it when you see it” proposition.

Prediction: • Ohio State 26, Texas 20

Central Arkansas at Missouri (-39.5), Thursday, Aug. 28

The only intrigue in this one is the quarterback competition at Missouri between Penn State transfer Beau Pribula and holdover Sam Horn, who has yet to take a snap in 3 seasons at Mizzou but is not going quietly in Year 4. Coach Eli Drinkwitz is treating the opener like a preseason game, announcing in advance the plan for Pribula to play the first half against UCA and Horn the second. The results will be about as meaningful as a preseason game, but even if the job is Pribula’s to lose there’s no harm in letting Horn have his say before making it official. Mizzou fans, don’t forget, we have an entire page dedicated to Mizzou football odds this season, too.

Prediction: Missouri 41, • Central Arkansas 10

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Auburn (-2) at Baylor, Friday, Aug. 29

Auburn has invested heavily in upgrading the passing game, with promising results at receiver: Sophomores Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons are rising stars, and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. was one of the most sought-after wideouts on the offseason market. The new quarterback, Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold is a tougher sell. On the plus side, Arnold is a former 5-star with a significantly higher ceiling than the guy he’s replacing, the pedestrian Payton Thorne, about whom Freeze could barely conceal his ambivalence. By any measure, though, Arnold was a straight-up bust at OU, finishing last among SEC starters in 2024 in pass efficiency and Total QBR. He was benched for a full month at midseason, yet still finished with an SEC-worst 36 sacks, per PFF.

Can Freeze fix him? We’re gonna find out. Arnold is still an underclassman on the upward slope of the growth curve, and certainly not hopeless. The lone glimmer of hope in the Sooners’ season of woe was their out-of-nowhere, 24-3 beatdown of Alabama the week before the Iron Bowl, which served as proof of concept for Arnold’s mobility: He accounted for 131 of Oklahoma’s 257 rushing yards on the night, easily a season high. Even at his best, though, he didn’t move the needle as a passer, completing just 9-of-11 attempts against the Tide for 68 yards. Freeze knows how to put a mobile quarterback to good use. But he didn’t recruit all those wideouts just to call a bunch of QB runs, either. If Arnold can’t demonstrate growth in the pocket, 5-star Deuce Knight‘s turn will come sooner rather than later.

Prediction: • Baylor 27, Auburn 23

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LSU at Clemson (-4)

LSU has lost its opener in 5 consecutive seasons. Have you heard about this? Brian Kelly certainly has, and is pounding a table in frustration as we speak. On its own, an 0-1 start in any given season is just a bad break. As a trend, on the other hand, the failure to start off on the right foot has only reinforced their broader failure to achieve national relevance over the same span. Since the signature win of the Kelly to date, an overtime upset over Alabama in 2022, the Tigers are a dismal 2-7 vs. ranked opponents despite leading at halftime in 4 of those 7 losses. Going even further back, LSU hasn’t won a game that matters outside of Baton Rouge since the Marco Wilson shoe toss game at Florida in the middle of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney has something to prove, too. After years of resisting pressure to adapt to the transfer portal era, he finally has a team that — on paper, anyway — has the potential to restore Clemson to its pre-pandemic heyday without compromising on his home-grown ethos. (Clemson actually did add a handful of transfers this year for the first time, but mostly for depth; only one, DE Will Heldt from Purdue, is a projected starter.) It would be a vindication years in the making — especially for Swinney’s hand-picked quarterback, Cade Klubnik, who is at the end of a developmental curve that has taken him from beleaguered scapegoat as an underclassman to Heisman frontrunner as a senior. LSU on Saturday night represents arguably the biggest hurdle on the schedule; clear it, and there’s nothing standing between the Tigers and a perfect regular season except their own consistency.

Prediction: • Clemson 32 | LSU 23

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Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State

Kaleb DeBoer is under pressure at Alabama after presiding over a roller coaster of a debut, but compared to Florida State under Mike Norvell, the post-Saban Tide are a beacon of stability. You knew the Seminoles were bad in 2024, a complete reversal of fortune following their 13-0 regular season in ’23. But as the losses began to run together last season, you might have lost track of just how bad. The 2-10 record, miserable as it was, was only scratching the surface.

Following their lone FBS win, a 14-9 decision over Cal in September, the Noles lost 7 straight vs. power opponents (including an ill-fated trip to Notre Dame) by an average margin of 23.4 points per game. Offensively, they ranked among the bottom 6 teams in the entire FBS in scoring offense (131st), total offense (132), rushing offense (129), pass efficiency (131), yards per play (132), first downs (130), third-down conversions (131) and sacks allowed (132). The big-ticket quarterback transfer, DJ Uiagalelei, was an instant bust, bowing out at midseason with a finger injury and exiting the premises. Altogether, FSU failed to top 16 points vs. an FBS opponent after the season opener, a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, and managed 300 yards of total offense just once. The defense forced a grand total of 4 takeaways in FBS play, tied for fewest in the nation. They weren’t merely bad on average; they were bad literally every time out against real competition.

Norvell was granted a reprieve based on a) his prior track record, and b) his exorbitant buyout, but there is no pretense that this is anything other than a make-or-break season. The offense features a single returning starter — not a bad thing, obviously — with nearly every starting position projected to be manned by a transfer, including the new quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, by way of Boston College. (Castellanos is a “Jordan Travis type,” in that he’s short and shifty, but based on his career to date at BC he is not Jordan Travis.) The defense is slightly more familiar, but only slightly. In other words, there is absolutely no way to predict what the ’25 Noles are going to look like. Frankly, covering a two-touchdown spread against the Tide would be worth a big sigh of relief.

Prediction: • Alabama 33, Florida State 10

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UT-San Antonio at Texas A&M (-24.5)

A&M coach Mike Elko made one of the first big decisions of his tenure in 2024 by settling on redshirt freshman Marcel Reed as his long-term starter over the much more highly touted Conner Weigman. A better athlete than passer, Reed was efficient enough to turn in respectable marks in both passer rating and QBR while consigning Weigman to the portal. (Weigman is now the projected QB1 at Houston.) He was also 1-4 as a starter after taking over full-time in November, the lone victory coming at the expense of New Mexico State. In fairness, the Aggies’ late collapse was a team effort, with the defense giving up 35+ points in 3 of those 4 losses. Still, they’re banking on growth from Reed in Year 2 with an overhauled cast of receivers. Expanding his downfield range could be the key to unlocking the offense.

Prediction: Texas A&M 36, • UTSA 17

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Marshall at Georgia (-38.5)

How much are we going to learn about the Bulldogs’ new QB1, Gunner Stockton? Unless something goes haywire, probably not very much. On paper, Stockton profiles as a generic “game manager” in the Fromm/Bennett/Beck mold, whose job against a 40-point underdog amounts to hitting his marks and not doing anything to make things any harder than they need to be for the defense and ground game. If there’s more to his game than that, he can save it for Tennessee in Week 3.

Prediction: Georgia 44, • Marshall 10

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Mississippi State (-13.5) at Southern Miss

Southern Miss didn’t just hire a new coach last winter: It hired an entirely new team. Fifty-four players portaled into USM over the offseason, 21 of whom followed new head coach Charles Huff from Marshall following the Thundering Herd’s run to the Sun Belt Conference championship. (Despite the title, Huff either couldn’t or wouldn’t come to terms with Marshall for a new contract, resulting in what both sides characterized publicly as a mutual parting of ways.) The mass exodus in December was so dramatic the Herd were forced to opt out of the Independence Bowl for lack of players. By the spring there were more members of Marshall’s 2024 roster in black and gold than there were still at Marshall.

The headliner of the transfer haul: Senior QB Braylon Braxton, a second-team All-SBC pick in his only season at Marshall who brings stability to the position after 4 years of musical chairs behind center under the previous staff. The Golden Eagles were unwatchable for most of that period, and bottomed out last year by losing all 11 games vs. FBS opponents by double digits – an even more miserable season than the 2-10 slog Mississippi State endured under first-year coach Jeff Lebby. The difference in ’25 is that the rebuilding project in Hattiesburg actually offers a light at the end of the tunnel.

Prediction: Miss. State 34, • Southern Miss 24

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Toledo at Kentucky (-9.5)

Kentucky is used to taking MAC opponents for granted – the Wildcats haven’t lost to any Group of 5 opponent since 2016 – but they do not have that luxury in 2025. Coming off a 1-7 finish in SEC play in ’24, they’re facing an uphill conference schedule that offers no plausible route to bowl eligibility barring multiple upsets. Saturday’s opener is 1 of only 3 or 4 games Kentucky is likely to be favored to win, give or take a road trip to Vanderbilt in late November. That makes it a must-win-or-else for Mark Stoops, who is coaching for his job. 

Not for nothing, it’s worth recalling that this is the same Toledo team that hammered Mississippi State in Starkville last September in a preview of the Bulldogs’ descent to last place. The ‘Cats may be in for a similar trajectory regardless of what happens in the opener, but at the very least they would like to delay confirming it for as long as possible.

Prediction: Kentucky 24, • Toledo 22

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Georgia State at Ole Miss (-34.5)

For a guy who’s flying well under the radar, Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons is one the conference’s more intriguing wild cards. Simmons, a redshirt sophomore, was not a blockbuster recruit, arriving in 2023 as a low 4-star. But he did beat out a big-time recruit, LSU transfer Walker Howard, for backup/heir apparent to Jaxson Dart in ’24. (Howard subsequently transferred to his hometown school, UL-Lafayette.) And Simmons’ only meaningful snaps in that role were memorable: After Dart was sidelined by an early ankle injury against Georgia, he came off the bench to lead a 10-play touchdown drive on which he was 5-for-6 passing for 65 yards. Personally, watching it in real time I thought Ole Miss should have let Dart simmer on his gimpy ankle for another drive or two and let the understudy cook; instead, Dart limped back in on the next series, presided over the win, and didn’t yield to Simmons again in a competitive situation the rest of the season. But as small sample sizes go, they don’t get much more encouraging than that.

It’s not hard to understand why he’s not getting much preseason shine in a year when almost every other SEC team boasts either an established starter, big-ticket transfer, or former 5-star. The advantage to being essentially unknown is that it’s still possible Simmons could turn out to be anything, from a star to a bust. Given his brief but brilliant cameo against UGA and Lane Kiffin’s track record with quarterbacks, the odds favor the former.

Prediction: • Ole Miss 45, Georgia State 10

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Syracuse at Tennessee (-14)

In general, Vols fans seemed ambivalent about the loss of face-of-the-program QB Nico Iamaleava, whose promise far outstripped his production in his first season as a starter, and whose abrupt departure in the spring left a sour taste. Then again, blue-chip sophomores with a 10-win season don’t exactly grow on trees, do they?

Iamaleava’s replacement, Joey Aguilar, is his opposite in pretty much every way. An unsung prospect from the JUCO ranks, Aguilar spent 2 good-not-great seasons at Appalachian State before transferring to UCLA last winter, only to be nudged out of the starting job in L.A. when Iamaleava joined the Bruins following spring drills. He took advantage of the opportunity to fill the vacancy in Knoxville, completing the rare college quarterback swap. But whether Aguilar is merely filler or actually measures up as an SEC starter is an open question. His production at App. State significantly declined from 2023 to ’24, when he served up an FBS-worst 14 interceptions en route to the Mountaineers’ first losing season in more than a decade. The hope is that the picks were largely a product of circumstances opposite a terrible defense — all 14 INTs came with the Mountaineers trailing on the scoreboard. At the very least, Aguilar needs to be kept out of situations where he feels compelled to take risks, which should sound familiar to Tennessee fans.

Prediction: Tennessee 29, • Syracuse 19

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Illinois State at Oklahoma (-36.5)

Oklahoma fans have spent the past 8 months getting gassed up over transfer QB John Mateer and his gonzo 2024 stat line at Washington State. Finally they get their first glimpse of the guy at the controls of a totally revamped offense. Not that lighting up the likes of Illinois State counts for much in the long run. But it’s a heck of a lot more reassuring than not lighting up Illinois State, which would be cause for serious concern that the fix to last year’s collapse isn’t going to be as quick as the locals have been promised.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 48, Illinois State 7

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Long Island U. at Florida (-45.5)

They play football on Long Island? Apparently, yeah. LIU is a relative newcomer to the D-I ranks, only moving up to the FCS level in 2019 after toggling between Division II and Division III status for the previous 4 decades. 2019 was also the year the university changed the school colors and rebranded from the Pioneers to the Sharks. (“Sharks vs. Gators” sounds the like the pitch for an extremely regrettable spinoff of West Side Story.) The current head coach, Ron Cooper, is a former head coach at Louisville in the ’90s whose long and winding résumé also includes stops at 6 different SEC schools, mostly recently as one of the small army of “analysts” at Alabama in 2021. For agreeing to serve as target practice for DJ Lagway, LIU is getting paid $525,000, or approximately $100k for every touchdown pass Lagway is going to throw on Saturday night.

Prediction: • Florida 52, LIU 3

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Alabama A&M at Arkansas (-46.5)

In last year’s opener vs. a SWAC patsy, the Razorbacks scored 10 touchdowns on 10 offensive possessions in a 70-0 massacre of Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Alabama A&M is not quite as hapless as UAPB, but when OC Bobby Petrino smells blood as a play-caller the opposition waving the white flag isn’t going to stop it from getting ugly.

Prediction: • Arkansas 59, Alabama A&M 6

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Charleston Southern at Vanderbilt (-38.5)

One more of the many signs of progress at Vandy: ‘Dores fans no longer have to hold their breath during the annual visit from an FCS tomato can.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, • Charleston Southern 13

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Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina (-7.5), Sunday, Aug. 31

South Carolina’s roster as a whole falls in the middle of the pack by SEC standards, but the Gamecocks’ up-and-coming dudes have almost unlimited potential. I’m a believer in QB La Norris Sellers, whose late-season breakthrough last November set him up for a monster sophomore campaign, and in edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who balled out as a true freshman from Day 1. The would-be dude on the bubble in 2025 is junior WR Nyck Harbor. As a recruit, Harbor was touted as a comic-book combination of speed and strength, a high school track champion in the body of a defensive end, the freak of all freaks. Two years in, his NCAA Football ratings have far outstripped his IRL production. He cannot continue to be relegated to Just A Guy status if the offense has any chance of achieving liftoff. He’s clearly at the top of the wide receiver rotation in Year 3; it’s time for his output to reflect it.

Prediction: • South Carolina 31, Virginia Tech 16

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