Week 10 SEC Primer: Can Tennessee’s Playoff plans survive a reality check from the sinking Sooners?

Everything you need to know about the Week 10 SEC slate, all in one place. (The team with a bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)

Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Tennessee (-3)

What’s up with Tennessee? For aspiring Playoff contenders, the Volunteers seem to be flying under the radar almost by design.

Of course, it was not part of any grand plan when the face-of-the-program quarterback abruptly moved to California in the middle of the offseason. At the time, Nico Iamaleava’s departure left the Vols without a headliner or readily identifiable identity. The best players on both sides of the ball from last year’s Playoff run all moved on; now the starting QB had, too. AP voters shrugged and slotted them at No. 24 in the preseason poll, a line reserved for dark-horses and wild cards. SEC media projected them to finish 9th in the conference.

Now, two-thirds of the way through the regular season, they remain … let’s say, enigmatic. What has changed? Who are these guys? If the season is unfolding more or less according to script, it feels like the audience is still waiting for the big reveal.

To their credit, the Vols are beating the teams they should beat, if not always convincingly. They’re 6-0 vs. unranked opponents, with their 3 conference wins to date — over Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State — coming at the expense of teams with a combined 0-13 record in SEC play. Meanwhile, they’ve come up short in upset bids at Alabama and Georgia. Beat inferior teams, lose to superior ones, par for the course. In a chaotic season across the sport, that and a recognizable brand will get you to No. 14 as the calendar turns to November.

From one week to the next, though, the through line has not been quite so straight. Tennessee coulda, shoulda taken down Georgia in Week 3, racing out to an early lead only to eventually fall in overtime in a game it was 1 play from winning on multiple occasions; in particular, a missed field goal at the end of regulation continues to haunt the season. By the same token, the Vols could have just as easily taken a season-killing L at Mississippi State in Week 5, narrowly escaping Starkville with a 41-34 win in overtime. They struggled to put away Arkansas in a 34-31 decision in Week 7. Quarterback Joey Aguilar, a dark-horse/wild card figure behind center if ever there was one, has played the hero (in a bombs-away bonanza vs. Kentucky) and the goat (on a killer pick-6 vs. Alabama), and occasionally both in the same game (vs. Georgia and Mississippi State). The defense, the heart and soul of last year’s success, has allowed 30+ points in all 5 SEC games.

The upshot is an outfit that can still go either way in the home stretch, which arrives with real opportunity and zero margin for error. Matching last year’s 10-2 record remains on the table, and will almost certainly guarantee Tennessee a return trip to the Playoff. Just how likely that is, though, is as difficult to gauge at this point as it was back in August. In that sense, Saturday night may tell us more about the Volunteers’ prospects than we’ve learned through 8 games. Oklahoma is the first of 3 remaining opponents — followed by Florida and Vanderbilt in Weeks 13-14 — who fall somewhere in the conference pecking order between the Bama/Georgia tier and the basement, which also makes this weekend our first real opportunity to size up the Vols against another member of the league’s middle class.

One way or another, every game that OU and Tennessee plays from here on out will qualify as a de facto elimination game. At 6-2, the Sooners remain marginal Playoff contenders, their sinking odds owing just as much to a brutal November schedule ahead of them as to their October losses to Texas and Ole Miss. At least they’ve come by their longshot status honestly. The Vols still believe they have bigger fish to fry. If they’re right, now’s the time to prove it.

Prediction: • Tennessee 33, Oklahoma 28

Vanderbilt at Texas (-2.5)

Texas’ season is on the line and Arch Manning is in the concussion protocol. Does the potential absence of the nation’s most scrutinized player make this game less interesting, or more?

As battered as Manning has been this season, it was only a matter of time before he took one that left him seeing little cartoon birds orbiting his head. It came on the first play of overtime at Mississippi State, when Manning’s head bounced off the turf at the end of a first-down scramble, ending his afternoon. He returned to practice on Wednesday, but is officially listed as “questionable” to play against Vandy.

If he hasn’t been cleared by Saturday, the fate of the Longhorns’ fading Playoff hopes falls to backup QB Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman on his 4th school in 5 years. (The previous 3: Jacksonville State, Gardner-Webb and Troy, where he turned in a 3-3 record as a part-time starter in 2024.) In keeping with the old cliché about the popularity of the backup quarterback, Caldwell has generated some minor intrigue among Texas fans based on 2 throws: A 26-yard strike that kicked off Texas’ last-gasp drive at Florida after Manning lost his helmet on the previous play; and a in Starkville after Manning exited the game, which went down as the game-winner after the defense preserved a 45-38 escape. Those are Caldwell’s only meaningful attempts of the season, but hey, in a couple of clutch situations on the road he is 2-for-2.

Manning has not been as bad as the negativity surrounding his rocky start often implies, but the growing pains are real enough that it’s not a given right now that he’ll be missed on any given Saturday. If Caldwell delivers in a must-win game against a top-10 opponent, minor intrigue could easily erupt into a full-blown controversy. (And yes, due to time constraints we are going to skip the part where we marvel that Vanderbilt is a top-10 team. The ‘Dores are no secret anymore.) Imagine the enflamed state of the Arch Discourse if, after an 8-figure investment in the heir to the Manning family legacy, Texas’ best win of the season is shepherded by a generic FCS-grade transfer who arrived over the summer as an afterthought. Are you prepared? I’m not sure I am, at least without access to one of those airtight hazmat suits that protects the body from toxic radiation. Steve Sarkisian, who spent much of last season not-so-patiently deflecting speculation about whether Arch was on the verge of overtaking the extremely well-hyped Quinn Ewers, definitely is not. Regardless of whether the ‘Horns need Manning to be the guy who keeps the season afloat, if they’re being honest there’s no doubt they’d prefer it.

Prediction: • Vanderbilt 26, Texas 22

Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida

The last time I wrote about the Dawgs in this space, I asked what was wrong with them. Even before their subsequent win over Ole Miss, that might have been a bit much. If these Dawgs project very little of the dominant aura of Kirby Smart‘s best teams, well, c’est la vie in the NIL/portal era. Aura or no aura, they’re right where they want to be: 7-1, No. 5 in both major polls, with their entire starting lineup and all of their goals intact. Compared to the rest of the sport right now, Georgia is a beacon of stability.

So here’s what I’d like to see from UGA in the Cocktail Party: A routine, drama-free win that looks like a top-5 outfit handling its business against an unranked rival playing out the string under an interim head coach. No sluggish start. No halftime deficit. No frantic 4th-quarter rally. No crowd shots of nervous fans with their hands on their heads as the sun sets. Just a straightforward, 4-quarter effort that doesn’t require anyone to reassess anything they thought at the beginning of the day — you know, a Georgia game. It’s been awhile since we’ve had one of those against an opponent that matters. Sure, this version of Florida only matters because it still says Gators on the helmets. All the more reason to spare us the suspense.

Prediction: • Georgia 31, Florida 20

South Carolina at Ole Miss (-12.5)

If any team knows better than to take a gilded path to the Playoff for granted, it’s Ole Miss, which memorably gacked away a golden ticket in 2024. Rebels fans have plenty of experience in the other shoe dropping this time of year and are prepared to tell you all about it. For once, though, the forecast really is clear. The Rebels split their big, back-to-back road tests at Georgia and Oklahoma, leaving them at 7-1 with the friendliest November slate this league has to offer: South Carolina and Florida at home, a layup against The Citadel, and a short trip to Mississippi State to close. They’re the only SEC team that doesn’t face another currently ranked opponent.

The most encouraging part of last week’s win at OU was the return of HAVOC. Last year, Ole Miss led the nation in havoc rate, defined by gameonpaper.com as the percentage of plays on which the defense records an interception, forced fumble, sack, tackle for loss, or pass broken up. No defense in America was more disruptive or spent more time in opposing backfields. This year, following a mass exodus from that unit, the ’25 Rebels rank dead last in the SEC in havoc rate at just 8.8%, down from 16.7% a year ago.

Against Oklahoma, though, you’d have thought they smuggled in the 2024 d-line under assumed names. Actually, 1 name was familiar: Princewill Umanmielen, younger brother of former Rebel (and current Carolina Panther) Princely Umanmielen, broke out in his own right against the Sooners, recording 7 QB pressures, 2 sacks, and a TFL that resulted in a safety. Between Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins on the edge and emerging DTs Zxavian Harris and William Echoles on the interior, the outline of a formidable front is beginning to take shape. Meanwhile, choose your own adjective for South Carolina’s offensive line – beleaguered, bereft, ripe for the picking. The Gamecocks have already fired their o-line coach while giving up 22 sacks in SEC play. LaNorris Sellers running for his life on Saturday night might not be enough for the Rebels to upgrade the pass rush from a question mark to a strength on the merits, but let’s just say they should go back to being concerned if he’s not.

Prediction: • Ole Miss 34, South Carolina 19

Kentucky at Auburn (-11.5)

Jackson Arnold has not been dumped on the curbside yet, but the writing is on the wall. His last pass in last week’s win over Arkansas was his worst in an Auburn uniform, resulting in a 90-yard pick-6 for the Razorbacks with less than a minute to play in the first half and a cold seat on the bench for Arnold for the rest of the afternoon. Ashton Daniels, a Stanford transfer with 20 career starts for the Cardinal, came off the bench to preside over the Tigers’ 2nd-half comeback in his first meaningful action of the year. He was fine, finishing 6-of-8 passing and accounting for 112 total yards; more important, he didn’t do anything to screw things up while being gifted a flurry of turnovers from a self-destructing Arkansas offense. Five second-half possessions on Daniels’ watch yielded 5 field goals.

Hugh Freeze has been noncommittal about the pecking order against Kentucky, declaring an open competition. Daniels reportedly took first-team reps during Monday’s practice, for what it’s worth. But Freeze has more to consider than just the Tigers’ upcoming games against Kentucky and Vanderbilt — namely, who gives them the best chance to beat Alabama? One of the reasons Auburn pursued Arnold in the first place was his performance (primarily as a runner) in Oklahoma’s 24-3 upset over Bama last November. That was his best game by far at OU after returning to the lineup from a midseason benching. It’s no secret that Freeze’s job could hinge on the Iron Bowl, or that the Tigers always expect to give the Crimson Tide all they can handle in their odd-year trips to The Plains. Unless Daniels is a revelation over the next couple weeks, Auburn fans have probably not seen the last of Arnold, much as many of them may wish they had.

Prediction: Auburn 27, • Kentucky 17

Mississippi State at Arkansas (-4.5)

Look, somebody has to win this game. But at this point, it’s probably going to be because the other side manages to come up with an even more devastating way to lose. 

Arkansas, resigned since September to playing out the string under an interim head coach, has refused to have the good taste to allow Hogs fans to abandon all hope while still failing to deliver an actual win. Over the course of a 6-game skid, the Razorbacks have fumbled away winnable games in crunch time twice; played CFP contenders Tennessee and Texas A&M within a field goal apiece in shootouts; and, most recently, blown a 4th-quarter lead against Auburn in a flurry of turnovers. Excluding a wipeout loss to Notre Dame in Week 4, their other 5 losses have come by a grand total of 22 points.

Mississippi State, owner of a 16-game SEC losing streak, has arguably been even more cursed. Twice, the Bulldogs have put themselves in position to end the skid in upset bids against Tennessee and Texas in Starkville; both times, they watched 4th-quarter leads (including a 17-point cushion against the Longhorns) evaporate in eventual losses in overtime. In between, they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at Florida, where – trailing by 2 points in the final minute – QB Blake Shapen served up a game-clinching pick within range of the game-winning field goal. As I said before last week’s heartbreaker against Texas, it’s only a matter of time before they beat somebody. But if it’s not the Razorbacks, with Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss on deck to finish up the year, suddenly the odds of the streak carrying over into 2026 are going to begin looking very grim.

Prediction: • Miss. State 38, Arkansas 35

OFF THIS WEEK: Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

Scoreboard

Week 9 record: 6-1 straight-up | 6-1 vs. spread
Season record: 74-14 straight-up | 37-46 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.