Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.
The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.
The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)
Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.
Under that premise, Alabama vs. Baylor and Mississippi State vs. TCU would meet in the national semifinals.
Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and Arizona State are the other teams most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula.
Week 11 eliminated four more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 117 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope for a national championship.
THE PLAYOFF TEAMS
1. Alabama
Score: 36.5
Last Week: No. 1
The Numbers Say: The Tide rank just fourth in the AP poll and are second in the SEC West, giving them a slight downgrade compared to Mississippi State. But Alabama boasts the nation’s No. 2 defense in terms of scoring efficiency and the 19th-best offense, giving them an edge over every playoff team in overall efficiency. Vegas and the Sagarin Ratings also prefer Alabama.
Bottom Line: Alabama has a chance to take control of the SEC West this weekend, but first must beat AP No. 1 Mississippi State.
Next Up: vs. Mississippi State.
2. Mississippi State
Score: 45.5
Last Week: No. 2
The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs lose 10 points to Alabama in overall efficiency, but gain it back since the Tide incur a 10-point penalty for suffering a loss. Vegas, the analytics metric we use and the Sagarin Ratings all ding Mississippi State slightly, but the cumulative effect ranks MSU behind Alabama.
Bottom Line: Mississippi State can almost assure themselves of a playoff spot by beating Alabama on the road — easier said than done.
Next Up: at Alabama.
3. TCU
Score: 50.5
Last Week: No. 5
The Numbers Say: The Horned Frogs rank in the Top 5 in all the rankings: human, Vegas, analytics and computers. The team’s efficiency doesn’t quite match Alabama’s, but it’s close. TCU also incurs a 10-point penalty for its loss to Baylor. Overall, the Horned Frogs don’t have a single bad number.
Bottom Line: TCU dominated Kansas State on Saturday. After beating West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma as well, the team just has to fend of Texas in a few weeks to secure a likely 11-1 regular season. But will the loss to Baylor haunt them?
Next Up: at Kansas.
4. Baylor
Score: 53.5
Last Week: No. 10
The Numbers Say: The Bears leaped six spots in our ranking. A win against Oklahoma improved Baylor’s position in the human polls and Vegas, but it also accounted for a huge move in the analytics metric. Football Outsiders’ FEI ranked the team No. 23 last week and No. 7 this week. The team’s efficiency also is the equivalent to Alabama.
Bottom Line: The Big 12 will submit the Bears as conference champions to the CFP committee if BU wins out against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State. Then the committee would be hard-pressed to take at least one Big 12 team. But which one?
Next Up: vs. Oklahoma State.
THE PAT HADENS
These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.
5. Florida State
Score: 65
Last: No. 3
The Numbers Say: The ‘Noles slipped in Vegas and in the FEI metric from last week, but the team’s overall efficiency improved. FSU’s overall total is very similar to last week, but TCU and Baylor both made huge leaps forward with big wins.
Bottom Line: FSU keeps winning against a manageable schedule, but Miami, Florida and Duke all have been playing better in recent weeks. The Seminoles should win out and make the playoff, but it’s not a complete certainty like it once appeared.
Next Up: at Miami.
6. Ohio State
Score: 68
Last: No. 9
The Numbers Say: The Buckeyes are like TCU, but a little worse in each category. The team ranks No. 12 in the analytics metric and No. 11 in the Sagarin Ratings.
Bottom Line: Boy, is Ohio State cursing the loss to Virginia Tech earlier this season. As it stands, the schedule isn’t impressive enough to get this team into the playoff.
Next Up: at Minnesota.
7. Oregon
Score: 70.5
Last: No. 6
The Numbers Say: The Ducks posted the same score as last week, but fell in the rankings. Oregon owns the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of points per possession, but the defense ranks 82nd in the same category, which destroys the team in our formula. The team also ranks No. 1 in the analytics metric and No. 2 in Vegas.
Bottom Line: Marcus Mariota and company should make the actual playoff if the team wins out, but the injuries are piling up and the defense is vulnerable.
Next Up: vs. Colorado (Nov. 22).
8. Arizona State
Score: 97
Last: No. 13
The Numbers Say: The Sun Devils rank 19th in the Sagarin Ratings, sport the nation’s 38th-best offense in terms of scoring efficiency and don’t have any impressive categories. ASU’s No. 7 ranking in the AP poll is the team’s best mark.
Bottom Line: Beating Notre Dame was a good start toward climbing into the College Football Playoff conversation. ASU still has a shot, but must beat Arizona and Oregon (in a potential Pac-12 championship) on the road.
Next Up: at Oregon State.
THE DAN MARINOS
Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.
9. Nebraska: 98
THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS
The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.
10. Duke: 143
THE DONALD STERLINGS
Only alive on paper.
Marshall
ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION
These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.
Count: 117 of 128
Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Arizona
Army
Auburn
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Missouri
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Old Dominion
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
Utah
Utah State
UTEP
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
