Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
In just one game, Florida rocketed into the top 25, became a viable SEC East contender and overtook Ole Miss in our Vegas standings.
Despite beating the spread in four of five contests, the Gators are a modest +37.5 against the line for the year — 35 points of which came Saturday against the previous SEC No. 1 Rebels.
Vanderbilt won as an underdog and Texas A&M handled Mississippi State, so the Commodores and Aggies also have just one loss against the Vegas number through five games.
Auburn continues to barrel toward triple digits below the Vegas spread, after most media outlets and Las Vegas pegged those Tigers as a preseason contender for the College Football Playoff. Perhaps Vegas finally will reach a strong market correction when Auburn travels to Kentucky to take on the Wildcats next Thursday night.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Florida | +37.5 | 4-1 |
| 2. Vanderbilt | +16.5 | 3-1-1 |
| 3. Texas A&M | +14.5 | 4-1 |
| 4. Ole Miss | +12.5 | 3-2 |
| 5. Alabama | +10 | 2-3 |
| 6. Tennessee | +9.5 | 3-2 |
| 7. Miss. State | +8 | 2-3 |
| 8. Kentucky | -15 | 2-3 |
| 9. LSU | -18.5 | 1-3 |
| 10. Georgia | -19 | 2-3 |
| 11. Missouri | -26 | 1-4 |
| 12. South Carolina | -34 | 2-3 |
| 13. Arkansas | -46 | 1-4 |
| 14. Auburn | -78 | 1-4 |
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength.
Georgia’s average Vegas line is minus-23.8, highest in the conference. LSU could take over the top spot this week, especially since the game at South Carolina has been moved to Baton Rouge due to flooding.
All SEC teams still remain betting favorites, on average, in 2015 — and will for at least one more week. Vanderbilt, underdogs in three of five games thus far, has a bye week and is clinging to an average as a favorite of less than one point.
Conference play has begun in earnest and the average lines are tightening throughout the SEC. But there still are five different teams that are, on average, better than a two-touchdown favorite. That includes Auburn and Missouri, two teams that have disappointed thus far.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Georgia | -23.8 | -49 vs. Southern |
| 2. LSU | -23.5# | -45 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 3. Ole Miss | -20.3 | -43 vs. UT-Martin |
| 4. Alabama | -18.2 | -37 vs. La.-Monroe |
| 5. Texas A&M | -15.3 | -30.5 vs. Ball State |
| 6. Auburn | -14.8 | -47.5 vs. Jacksonville State |
| 7. Missouri | -14.6 | -42 vs. SEMO |
| 8. Arkansas | -12.6 | -31.5 vs. UTEP |
| 9. Tennessee | -10.5 | -37.5 vs. W. Carolina |
| 10. Mississippi St. | -10.4 | -39.5 vs. Northwestern St. |
| 11. Florida | -10.1 | -34.5 vs. New Mexico St. |
| 12. Kentucky | -7.4 | -27.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky |
| 13. South Carolina | -1 | -14.5 vs. UCF |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -0.3 | -46.5 vs. Austin Peay |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Missouri and Vanderbilt have yet to go over the Vegas total. That’s despite the East Division version of the Tigers facing an average over/under of just 47.6 points. (In other words, a 27-21 game would go over that total, on average.)
In fact, overall, the SEC has gone over the posted total 24 times, under the posted total 43 times and pushed three times. That’s a remarkable discrepancy, and one that likely has made a few astute gamblers a lot of money.
| Team | Avg. Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 63.9 | 66 vs. Nevada | 2/3 |
| 2. Tennessee | 59.8 | 68 vs. Bowling Green | 3/2 |
| 3. Mississippi St. | 59.1 | 63 at Texas A&M | 1/4 |
| 4. Arkansas | 58.2 | 69.5 vs. Texas Tech | 1/4 |
| 5. Georgia | 56.7 | 73 vs. Southern | 2/3 |
| 6. Auburn | 56.3 | 63 vs. Jacksonville St. | 2/2/1 |
| 7. LSU | 54.2# | 63 vs. Eastern Michigan | 3/1 |
| 8. Ole Miss | 53.1 | 56 vs. Fresno State | 3/2 |
| T9. Vanderbilt | 52.9 | 60 vs. Western Ky. | 0/4/1 |
| T9. Kentucky | 52.9 | 58 vs. La.-Lafayette | 2/3 |
| 11. Florida | 52.4 | 54.5 vs. New Mexico St. | 2/3 |
| 12. South Carolina | 51.7 | 62 vs. North Carolina | 1/3/1 |
| 13. Alabama | 51.5 | 56.5 vs. Middle Tenn. | 2/3 |
| 14. Missouri | 47.6 | 55 at Arkansas State | 0/5 |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
