What 5 SEC hot-seat football coaches need to do to survive 2026
By David Wasson
Published:
The tried-and-true maxim among coaches of any stripe is that they are hired to be fired.
Rare is the coach who spends 20 years in a program before eventually retiring amid confetti and a bronze statue. Much more often, coaches are the modern-day nomads – getting paid handsomely in exchange for the eventual pink slip or nudge out the door inevitably coming their way.
To that end, we cast a wary eye upon the 16 lucky souls who occupy football head coaching spots in the SEC heading into 2026. It is safe to assume that, barring unforeseen NCAA-related issues or off-the-field implosions (see Moore, Sherrone…), we likely won’t experience the massive 6-job turnover from the 2025 coaching carousel.
But that doesn’t mean 2026 will be without fireworks, oh no. Athletic directors and big-time donors are simply too itchy to live with the status quo. So behold, here are the 5 SEC coaches most likely to find the bread line this season:
Steve Sarkisian, Texas
Seasons at Texas: 5 (48-20 overall, 30-13 SEC)
How hot is the seat? 1 out of 5
Why he’ll be out: All the reasons Steve Sarkisian’s Texas Longhorns are expected to shine are in place again in 2026, as Texas could well be ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the preseason polls. Standout quarterback Arch Manning, another star-studded supporting cast and a reloaded defense are all primed for success. But we saw this hype train leave the station quickly in 2025 when Sark fumbled it away at Florida on Oct. 4 and was playing catchup the rest of the season. Another untimely loss like that, especially after so much NIL money has been poured into the roster, will spell doom.
How he can stay: “Win ‘em all!” feels like the easy solution here, but the reality is that Sarkisian doesn’t need to run the table to stay employed in Austin – simply because that is a near-impossibility in a perennially stacked SEC. Never mind that Sark’s own sentiment that an undefeated season was impossible got immediately countered by Curt Cignetti’s epic Indiana run. With a roster like theirs and a favorable home schedule that sees Ohio State and Ole Miss visit DKR, though, the Longhorns simply must make the College Football Playoff. Anything less than said USDA choice cut of steak just doesn’t match the sizzle that Sark and Co. have heading into the season.
Will Texas win the national championship? Kalshi currently gives the Longhorns a 13% chance to get the job done:
Josh Heupel, Tennessee
Seasons at Tennessee: 5 (45-20 overall, 24-16 SEC)
How hot is the seat? 2 out of 5
Why he’ll be out: If the decidedly uneven trajectory tilts downward in Knoxville, the natives could get very restless on Josh Heupel. Pro-Heupel Nation points to an 11-2 season in 2022 that included an Orange Bowl win as well as a CFP berth in 2024. Anti-Heupelites counter with 4-4 SEC marks in 2021, 2023 and last year. It didn’t help Heupel’s cause that Joey Aguilar lost his court case to return in 2026 – leaving the Vols essentially QB-less heading into spring drills. Whomever wins the 3-way battle between George MacIntyre, Faizon Brandon and transfer Ryan Staub better figure it out in a hurry, or else for Heupel.
How he can stay: Whichever quarterback ends up emerging for the Vols will need to become The Man instantaneously in a high-tempo offense that relies on the trigger man making correct RPO decisions and capitalizing on deep shots. Tennessee’s 2026 schedule is favorable, at least, with Texas, Alabama and LSU all visiting Neyland Stadium. Heupel earns another campaign if he successfully deduces who is gonna walk that aisle at quarterback and then goes 2-1 against the Longhorns, Tide and Tigers – while also winning all the games Tennessee is supposed to win. Go 1-2 at home against those 3, though, and it’ll be curtains.
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
Seasons at Alabama: 2 (20-8 overall, 12-4 SEC)
How hot is the seat? 3 out of 5
Why he’ll be out: The insane, borderline-unsustainable demands of being an Alabama coach have chewed up and spit out many before Kalen DeBoer – and precisely none of those coaches had to follow a still-living legend. We have opined about the long shadow Nick Saban still casts on this Crimson Tide program, and how it is more likely to swallow DeBoer whole than for DeBoer to conquer it and wrestle it to the ground. We aren’t speculating DeBoer will be fired, but you better believe he will leap at a lateral gig if the walls narrow any more.
How he can stay: Did we mention borderline-unsustainable? Every fanbase in America except one would be thrilled with a College Football Playoff berth. Every fanbase in America except one would be thrilled to make the CFP quarterfinals. And every fanbase in America except one wouldn’t dream of letting that guy go. But those fanbases ain’t the Alabama fanbases, a’ight? The mother of all grading curves is what DeBoer is judged on, which means both playing for an SEC championship and going deep into January as a CFP contender is the requirement. Don’t count on it.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Seasons at Mississippi State: 2 (7-18 overall, 1-15 SEC)
How hot is the seat? 4 out of 5
Why he’ll be out: By the end of a third season, the die is pretty much cast on how a program is going to fare with a coach. And while Jeff Lebby’s trajectory from a 2-10 debacle in 2024 to a slightly more respectable 5-8 in 2025 is promising, Bulldogs faithful won’t wait forever for their program to truly become a viable threat in the SEC. This isn’t to say Mississippi State was awful last season, as Lebby’s crew knocked off then-No. 12 Arizona State at Davis-Wade Stadium in September and gave both then-No. 15 Tennessee and then-No. 22 Texas overtime scares. But close is only good enough in horseshoes, so the 2026 record had better be on the good side of .500 if Lebby wants a fourth season.
How he can stay: Beat more than Arkansas, for starters. Listen, we get that the SEC is a gauntlet. But Davis-Wade at full throat (and full cowbell) can be infuriatingly hostile to opposing teams. Take down, say, Alabama or Oklahoma in Starkville and suddenly Lebby has a lot of wind in his proverbial sails. There are also theoretically winnable home conference games against Mizzou, Vanderbilt and Auburn. If sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor can figure it all out and the defense shines under new coordinator Zach Arnett to the tune of 3-4 conference wins, Lebby could well be one of the national success stories in 2026.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Seasons at South Carolina: 5 (33-30 overall, 16-24 SEC)
How hot is the seat? 5 out of 5
Why he’ll be out: Frankly, we are more than a little surprised Shane Beamer even survived 2025 – and probably did so in part simply because about half the SEC was already looking for new coaches. By any metric, 4-8 at a place like South Carolina doesn’t even come close to cutting it. Nor does coughing up a 30-3 halftime lead on Texas A&M. Nor does a 5-game midseason losing streak. Nor does getting doubled up by a lackluster Clemson team in the Palmetto Bowl. Beamer ran offensive coordinator Mike Shula out of town and replaced him with Kendal Briles… 1 of 5 changes on that staff just this cycle alone. There’s no one left to blame it on now.
How he can stay: You’d think the answer would be “just go .500,” but we aren’t even sure that will earn Beamer a reprieve to 2027. Maybe beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa? Maybe take down Florida in The Swamp? Maybe upset Oklahoma in Norman? And even though you gotta figure Clemson won’t be that bad 2 years in a row, steal one against the Tigers in the season finale inside the other Death Valley? Pull off 2 of those miracles and Beamer avoids having to speed-dial a real estate agent before Christmas. The smart money is on maybe only 1 happening at best…
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
