It is safe to say that, no matter how you might have eyeballed the 2025 Auburn Tigers before the season began, figuring Hugh Freeze’s club for 1 of the 9 remaining unbeaten SEC teams through the first 3 weeks of the season would have been considerably optimistic.
After all, this wasn’t a team that exactly oozed preseason hype. Auburn was picked 11th out of 16 by the media at SEC Football Media Days, hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2020 and saw Freeze included on several coaching hot-seat lists.
But that was talking season, alas. And now that we are firmly into September, the Tigers are not only 3-0 but are ranked No. 22 in America heading into Saturday’s clash at No. 11 Oklahoma.
How did Auburn get here? And what is the ceiling for the Tigers in 2025? Let’s work through the first question first…
Plenty of pundits (yours truly included…) figured the result of Auburn’s season-opening test at Baylor would weigh heavily – perhaps too heavily, one way or the other – on how we viewed the Tigers heading into September. And while it is true that Auburn’s pass defense looked like a spaghetti strainer against the Baylor passing attack, Freeze and Auburn authored a game plan solid enough to go into Waco and take down Baylor 38-24.
Being outgained 483-419 didn’t really matter against the Bears that much when factoring in Auburn made the necessary fourth-down stops when it absolutely mattered. And transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold showed plenty of grit (a game-high 137 rushing yards and 2 touchdown runs) in announcing to the world that news of Auburn’s demise was premature.
The Tigers followed up that successful road test by thumping Ball State 42-3 and outlasting South Alabama 31-15 – both home victories that saw Auburn assert its will on the ground (piling up 227 rushing yards against the Cardinals and 195 against the Jaguars). More importantly, there were no real moments of genuine concern from Auburn in either game.
But beating Baylor, Ball State and South Alabama is one thing. Auburn now finds itself staring directly into the teeth of a blistering 4 weeks of SEC competition. And there just won’t be any Bears, Cardinals or Jaguars anytime soon.
First up is a trip to Norman to play Arnold’s former team. The Oklahoma Sooners are also 3-0, and Arnold’s replacement – John Mateer – has passed for almost twice as many yards (944 to Arnold’s 501) in the same span of games.
After that is a trip to College Station to take on No. 10 Texas A&M. Another potentially superior quarterback awaits there in the person of Aggies sophomore Marcel Reed. Auburn can certainly beat 1 of these 2 standout teams on the road, but probably won’t overcome both of them. So figure 1-1 heading into a bye week Oct. 4.
After that, though, the main event comes to the Plains in No. 5 Georgia. The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry has been all Bulldogs over the past 8 years and 11 of the past 12. And even with this game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, Georgia figures to just be too tall a hill to climb for the Tigers this season.
The brutal 4-week stretch ends Oct. 18 at home against No. 23 Missouri. Auburn’s pass defense will once again get tested in the form of Mizzou quarterback Beau Pribula. The problem here is that Mizzou carries a strong ground game ranked 5th in the country heading into this weekend. Look for the visiting Tigers to pull a shocker here.
That puts Auburn at 4-3 heading into imminently winnable games at Arkansas on Oct. 25, at home against Kentucky Nov. 1, at current No. 20 Vanderbilt on Nov. 8 and at home Nov. 22 against Mercer. Even if the Tigers slip up against the Commodores, figure they are 7-4 with a home Iron Bowl date against No. 14 Alabama.
We have already done this deal from the Crimson Tide’s side, and thus are obligated to carry it over here. There has been simply way too much voodoo happening in Lee County over the years to not have it bite Alabama once again. Prepare to scratch that check for a half-million bucks to the SEC, Auburn Nation, because you won’t be keeping them off the field that night.
So there you have it. Looking realistically, Auburn is destined for an 8-4 season – ironically the exact same mark as Alabama. It could be as high as 10-2, or as low as 7-5… but anything on the plus side of .500 will all but guarantee Freeze a job in 2026.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
