Hear me out.
All I can ask of you, reader of this column, is to give me this space to make you aware of the weekend that awaits a certain Butch Jones, and why it could be his most important Saturday since he was handing out “champions of life” awards at Tennessee. I won’t ask you to agree with me, nor will I try to get you to change your mind about how awful things went for Jones in Knoxville. Just hear me out.
On Saturday, Jones will lead Arkansas State in its first matchup ever with Arkansas. That in itself is noteworthy in The Natural State. But that historic occasion in War Memorial Stadium isn’t what should have Jones on your radar.
He’s in Year 5 at Arkansas State, but this is the first time that he’ll face an SEC team since Nov. 11, 2017, when the Vols fell 50-17 at Mizzou. It’s the first time in 2,856 days that Jones will be a head coach against an SEC team. That SEC team, Arkansas, is a 23.5-point favorite against Jones and the Red Wolves. That would suggest that there’s not a strong chance that Jones will beat an SEC team for the first time since he led Tennessee to a 63-37 win vs. Mizzou on Nov. 19, 2016.
But hey, don’t sleep on the possibility of Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor making things interesting against a new-look Razorback secondary. There’s a chance that Arkansas could struggle against an inferior opponent like we saw last year in a 10-point win vs. UAB, or like we saw in that 38-27 thriller against Bobby Petrino’s FCS Missouri State squad back in 2022.
Of course, Petrino is now leading the Arkansas offense. He knows a thing or 2 about rebuilding his reputation after his SEC opportunity all came crashing down. So does Jones.
Each season that he’s been at Arkansas State, he’s improved. To do that in Year 5 would mean a 9-win season at a place that’s only done that 3 times at the FBS level. Go figure that 2 of those seasons were led by coaches (Gus Malzahn and Hugh Freeze) who were also fired in the SEC and have tried to climb back to the top of the mountain, albeit on different paths.
In a way, that’s what Jones is trying to do. Upsetting a team like Arkansas in their first-ever matchup would suddenly get the Arkansas State coach back into those conversations. Even just making that a 60-minute game en route to a 9-win season could make Jones an intriguing candidate at a Power Conference job.
Are you still with me? Good.
You, reader of this column, might assume that I’m about to say that Arkansas should consider Jones if Sam Pittman is fired at season’s end. Nope. That’s not where we’re going with this. In fact, let’s not include Jones in any of the conversations about potential SEC vacancies.
Let’s instead go to a game that’ll kick off after Arkansas-Arkansas State. On Saturday night, Virginia Tech will host Vanderbilt. The Hokies are 1-point favorites in a revenge game against Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. Last year, the Dores handed Brent Pry’s squad a stunning Week 1 loss after it was a trendy preseason pick to win the ACC. This year, Virginia Tech will be tasked with chasing Pavia around on short rest after it couldn’t contain LaNorris Sellers and No. 13 South Carolina. You could argue that Virginia Tech was a few boneheaded mistakes away from knocking off a top-15 team and being in position to get to 2-0 with a pair of wins against SEC programs to kick off Year 4 of the Pry era.
But that’s not how this works. In Year 4, Pry is trying to get past a 1-13 (!) record in games decided by 10 points or less. He’s also trying to avoid getting swept by Vandy in a home-and-home. A one-score loss in the home opener to drop to 0-2 — something that hasn’t happened since 2010 — would fire up that hot seat even more.
That decision, if there is one to make, will be in the hands of Virginia Tech athletic director Whit Babcock. Why is that significant, you ask? From 2011-14, Babock was the AD at Cincinnati, where Jones was the head coach from 2010-12. One of Babcock’s first orders of business at Cincinnati was giving Jones an extension at the end of the 2011 season. A year later, Jones left for Tennessee and eventually, Babcock landed at Virginia Tech. One of his first orders of business there was replacing the legendary Frank Beamer at the end of the 2015 season. On that list of candidates was Jones. Ultimately, a reunion didn’t happen and Jones stayed at Tennessee. The timing didn’t line up.
When Babcock had another hire to make at the end of the 2021 season, Jones had just gotten back to the sidelines and was coming off a 2-win Year 1 at Arkansas State. The timing didn’t line up there, either.
That brings us to 2025, wherein the idea of Pry being replaced by Jones at Virginia Tech isn’t far-fetched
Dare I say, it’s got a better shot of happening than Shane Beamer leaving South Carolina after Year 5 to take over the program that his dad built. It’s ironic, though, that by beating Virginia Tech in Week 1, Beamer could play a part in Pry losing his job in Year 4.
Again, it’s premature to say that’s imminent. For all we know, Pry will blow out Vandy, compete for an ACC title and fend off hot-seat discussions. Once upon a time, Jones looked like he wasn’t going to survive beyond Year 3 at Arkansas State, especially after the Red Wolves started that season 0-2 with a whopping 110-3 scoring disadvantage.
Jones doesn’t have any control over what happens at Virginia Tech this season, and perhaps there won’t be enough that he can do with Arkansas State to show Power Conference athletic directors that he’s ready for another opportunity after the way things soured on Rocky Top. But he’s on the verge of his 3rd successful FBS coaching stint. The only blemish on his résumé is Tennessee. He clearly wasn’t a fit there. Maybe nobody was fit for that job in the 2010s.
Soon, it’ll be a decade since Jones led a Power Conference program. It’s not so crazy to think that another opportunity could await. Even if it’s not a reunion with Babcock at Virginia Tech, perhaps Jones can take a page out of the Scott Frost/Rich Rodriguez playbook and return to Cincinnati if that job opens up. The coaching carousel, which is expected to move at warp speed in 2025, could spit out several potential landing spots for Jones.
That’s got a better shot of becoming a reality if Jones can set the wheels in motion on Saturday.
And for hearing me out, you deserve something better than a championship of life award.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
