Why Saturday’s reunion at Oklahoma is far more important for Brent Venables than Jackson Arnold
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When the dots were connected that Jackson Arnold’s first SEC game in an Auburn uniform would be a trip to Oklahoma, it felt like the college football gods had collaborated with the reality TV gods. A juicy college football breakup reunion is hard to come by, but when it hits right, it can captivate the nation. Think 2013 LSU–Georgia with the Zach Mettenberger breakup. Think 2021 Ole Miss–Tennessee with the Lane Kiffin breakup. If the college football sickos really want to go deep into the weeds, think 2019 Western Kentucky-Arkansas with the Ty Storey-Chad Morris breakup.
Breakup reunions can come in all shapes and sizes. But outside of Nico Iamaleava somehow returning to play a game at Tennessee — that’s now got a 0.0% chance of happening in 2025 with his UCLA squad off to an 0-3 start with a fired coach — it’s hard to imagine a breakup reunion bigger than Arnold and Oklahoma.
By now, most know exactly why that’s the case. At this time last year, Arnold was Oklahoma’s next great quarterback. Brent Venables opted to build around the former 5-star recruit instead of keeping Dillon Gabriel in Norman for another season, and he brought him to SEC Media Days as a redshirt freshman … only to bench Arnold before halftime of his first SEC game in Week 4. You get it.
So now, as the college football and reality TV gods would have it, Arnold’s Auburn squad will kick off SEC play at Oklahoma in the exact same Week 4 when his career detoured a year ago.
“To me, it’s (Oklahoma’s) biggest game of the first half of the season. It’s bigger than Texas, it’s bigger than Michigan,” said OU graduate and current SEC Network/KREF host Dari Nowkhah in August (via The Saturday Down South Podcast). “Cannot lose it. Optics being terrible is probably an understatement.”
All eyes will be on Arnold, but this means more for Venables
Not to discount what Saturday means on a personal level for Arnold, who is trying to be the breath of fresh air that Auburn desperately needed after 2 years of disappointing offenses to start the Hugh Freeze era, but a lackluster showing against an elite defense won’t doom his future. I could argue that by virtue of being a former 5-star guy who has already shown some flashes during his first 3 seasons at the Power Conference level, Arnold could get benched again in 2025 and still find his way to QB1 duties with multiple years of eligibility at a Group of 5 program in 2026. That’s worst-case scenario if things go horribly wrong.
So far, that hasn’t been the case. So far, Arnold has mostly been what Auburn fans hoped he could be. Through 3 games, he’s 4-for-7 with a 57.1% adjusted completion percentage on 20-yard throws (he was 26.7% on those throws last year) and much to the delight of scorned Auburn fans, he has yet to throw an interception. On top of that, he’s No. 2 among SEC quarterbacks with 192 rushing yards and he’s No. 1 among Power Conference quarterbacks with 12 missed tackles forced.
It’s early, but Arnold is looking like someone who is performing better in his new surroundings. How much of that is just having a healthy receiver room with an SEC-ready offensive line? And how much of that is having Freeze instead of last year’s offensive staff at Oklahoma? That remains to be seen.
What’s undeniable is that it would be an awful, terrible, no good, very bad day for Venables if Arnold lit up the Oklahoma defense en route to an Auburn victory in his return to Norman. It would be a massive blow to Venables’ future on a variety of fronts.
What would that type of performance say about Venables and his ability to evaluate quarterbacks? It’s already bad enough that he watched Gabriel earn a Heisman invite and lead Oregon to a Big Ten Championship in 2024. A year removed from that, he’s supposed to have the edge at that spot with his hand-picked addition to replace Arnold in John Mateer.
So far, Mateer has been everything that Oklahoma fans hoped he could be. Through 3 games, the Washington State transfer is No. 2 in FBS with 368 scrimmage yards per game and much to the delight of scorned Oklahoma fans, he’s averaging 10.2 yards/pass attempt under pressure. On top of that, he’s leading an OU offense that ranks No. 11 in FBS with 20 scrimmage plays of 20 yards and Mateer is No. 2 in the current Heisman odds.
You know what becomes an afterthought if Mateer crumbles in a losing effort to Arnold’s Auburn squad, though? All of that.
Venables might not have his hands all over what Mateer looks like in Ben Arbuckle’s offense on Saturday, but as the defensive play-caller, he can sure as heck have a large say in what the Oklahoma defense does to Arnold. If there’s anybody on the planet who should be able to draw up a successful game plan to frustrate Arnold, it’s Venables. Only the people in that 2024 Sooners locker room could tell you how many times that happened during the week last year. Based on the way things played out on Saturdays with Arnold and the OU offense often looking like the weak link alongside a better-than-they-got-credit-for OU defense, it’s safe to say Venables had plenty of successful defensive reps against Arnold.
Imagine the kick to the teeth it would be to Venables if his loaded defense had its worst day of the young season on Saturday. Well, maybe that’s not a fair way to frame it because this is a unit that allowed 6.3 points per game and 3.5 yards/play. The “worst day of the young season” would be allowing multiple touchdowns. Still, though. This can’t be the time when the strength of that unit is what’s called into question, no matter how much Venables says publicly that this is a normal game.
To be fair, that’s exactly what Venables should say publicly. Lord knows he doesn’t have to sell or explain the magnitude of this matchup. He’s got a national audience on ABC who’ll know everything that’s at stake.
For Venables, it’s a giant fork in the road. A loss like this in Year 4 would loom large, especially with Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione set to step down this school year. Even with a $35 million buyout, it would be the type of loss that would be hard for any coach to shake, much less the one responsible for the program’s only 2 losing seasons of the 21st century. Losing at home to Arnold and the Tigers would be an ominous sign at the start of a stretch that’ll include 7 (currently) ranked foes in the final 9 games of the season.
Alternatively, a win like this and a 5-0 start with a top-10 ranking going into the Texas game in Week 7 is all but guaranteed (it’s a bye week then a matchup vs. a Kent State team who hasn’t beaten an FBS foe since 2022). Perhaps Venables could even boast the new leader in the Heisman odds if Mateer continues his impressive start, which would be the ultimate 180 from his Week 4 quarterback situation last year.
You can’t overstate it. The college football and reality TV gods handcrafted a diabolical showdown in Norman.
Cannot miss it.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
